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  • FIRST POST
    • BrockStoker
    • By BrockStoker 5th Feb 18, 8:32 PM
    • 200Posts
    • 87Thanks
    BrockStoker
    Correction in progress!
    • #1
    • 5th Feb 18, 8:32 PM
    Correction in progress! 5th Feb 18 at 8:32 PM
    I've just seen the largest (single day) spike in volatility I've ever experienced (currently @ 106%). Certainly it's looking like this is going to be the largest correction since 2015!

    https://uk.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500-chart

    Time to look at what to buy with the cash I've been holding!

    More inclined to look at overseas assets/equities, but I have been thinking about buying some UK micro-cap for a while, and possibly some Chinese equities. Any one else shopping right now?
Page 9
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 7th Feb 18, 9:20 AM
    • 2,236 Posts
    • 1,631 Thanks
    Alexland
    After getting the kick up the a**e after years of dithering to move over to I needed to finally move savings over to S&S, including my LISA (thanks again Alex) - my transfer is currently going through - naturally I'm hoping everything stays depressed for a few months while my funds arrive, and I gobble-up as much as I can on the (relative) cheap!
    Originally posted by Cash-Strapped.T32
    You might not be thanking me if it drops further

    With your investment timeline investing in S&S versus cash is a very difficult decision remember to focus on reducing risk over time.

    Alex.
    Last edited by Alexland; 07-02-2018 at 9:33 AM.
    • bcfclee27
    • By bcfclee27 7th Feb 18, 9:42 AM
    • 179 Posts
    • 45 Thanks
    bcfclee27
    You might not be thanking me if it drops further

    With your investment timeline investing in S&S versus cash is a very difficult decision remember to focus on reducing risk over time.

    Alex.
    Originally posted by Alexland
    Do you think it will drop further Alex or do you think it's starting to balance out now.....seems to be slowing down at least.
    • ChesterDog
    • By ChesterDog 7th Feb 18, 9:50 AM
    • 874 Posts
    • 1,624 Thanks
    ChesterDog
    I've had a SIPP since 2014 but only began taking a real interest in 2016 so I'm still a newbie. Yesterday I was counting my blessings as, thanks to the excellent information and help on this forum, I recently restructured my portfolio.

    In the nick of time.

    Previously it was very high risk. Worse still, I didn't know it. Throughout 2017 I did lots of research on platforms, fees, risk, timescales, aims, volatility, diversification, allocation and funds - often guided by this forum. I sold most holdings, moved money around, and bought only when I felt that I knew enough to do so.

    It's been a very steep learning curve and this week is the equivalent of taking my first end of term exam. If I pass then I shall feel sufficiently confident to take 'Investing 102'. I didn't even try to time the market and was fully invested before things began to get choppy. Not such a bad thing as I would now be facing the dilemma of when to invest and I don't think that's a road I should ever travel.

    So far the restructured portfolio has held-up ok and the sea of red isn't provoking a headless chicken response. I actually feel quite sanguine thanks to the reassurances I read here. The jury is still out on how I will feel/respond when the real nasty hits the fan but, when it does, I will again take my lead from the knowledgable people here.

    Thanks very much guys.
    Originally posted by DairyQueen
    Just remember, this correction (as yet, at least) is not only normal, it's not even large - which would still be normal.

    The big stuff, including 20/30/40% crashes WILL come alomg. That's normal too.

    So while it's all good experience, don't be too concerned at the fall, and equally don't pat yourself on the back too much at being quite relaxed about it. Ponder how it will all feel when the really big falls do come along.
    I am one of the Dogs of the Index.
    • OldMusicGuy
    • By OldMusicGuy 7th Feb 18, 9:58 AM
    • 335 Posts
    • 665 Thanks
    OldMusicGuy
    So while it's all good experience, don't be too concerned at the fall, and equally don't pat yourself on the back too much at being quite relaxed about it. Ponder how it will all feel when the really big falls do come along.
    Originally posted by ChesterDog
    This is good advice. This correction has been a good "test" of volatility after a period of calm. You should look at how your funds have performed and how they recovered. Then also question how you felt about things, and extrapolate this forward to a much bigger drop. I know this has made me consider readjusting my portfolio somewhat based on my own reactions to my various funds performance.

    I got the "don't fiddle" message reinforced. Off the back of all the positive news about the US economy after Davos, I decided to increase my US exposure a bit more (my passive funds are more UK weighted). The 50K I moved from cash just over one week ago has dropped 2,250. Of course it will get that back but I would have been in a better position had I not reacted to some soundbites and fiddled. Of course the real story behind the sound bites was what caused the correction, but I didn't think that through.....
    • Cash-Strapped.T32
    • By Cash-Strapped.T32 7th Feb 18, 11:02 AM
    • 472 Posts
    • 259 Thanks
    Cash-Strapped.T32
    You might not be thanking me if it drops further

    With your investment timeline investing in S&S versus cash is a very difficult decision remember to focus on reducing risk over time.

    Alex.
    Originally posted by Alexland
    Haha, point well made!

    I'm fairly fortunate I guess in that if needs-be, I could afford to postpone my house purchase plans for a few yrs (within reason, I'm 36 after all), so I shouldn't be forced to cash-in in the middle of a slump, assuming we're not looking at a decade-long thing...

    So perhaps a year or two of depressed prices might suit me well, allowing me to accumulate as much as possible before hopefully rising & taking y value with it...
    Hmmm, now, all I need to complete my nefarious plan is a sure-fire way to tank the world economy...


    *EDIT* Just to add, I agree - in my case I think it's highly likely that I'll move to a higher bonds vs equities ratio as I get closer to the time of purchase.
    Last edited by Cash-Strapped.T32; 07-02-2018 at 11:07 AM.
    • Cotta
    • By Cotta 7th Feb 18, 11:04 AM
    • 2,658 Posts
    • 1,097 Thanks
    Cotta
    Bitcoin seems to have steadied the ship, talk of its demise were unfounded.
    • bcfclee27
    • By bcfclee27 7th Feb 18, 11:19 AM
    • 179 Posts
    • 45 Thanks
    bcfclee27
    Haha, point well made!

    I'm fairly fortunate I guess in that if needs-be, I could afford to postpone my house purchase plans for a few yrs (within reason, I'm 36 after all), so I shouldn't be forced to cash-in in the middle of a slump, assuming we're not looking at a decade-long thing...

    So perhaps a year or two of depressed prices might suit me well, allowing me to accumulate as much as possible before hopefully rising & taking y value with it...
    Hmmm, now, all I need to complete my nefarious plan is a sure-fire way to tank the world economy...


    *EDIT* Just to add, I agree - in my case I think it's highly likely that I'll move to a higher bonds vs equities ratio as I get closer to the time of purchase.
    Originally posted by Cash-Strapped.T32
    How long are you planning to be invested in your stocks and shares for ?
    • Filo25
    • By Filo25 7th Feb 18, 11:19 AM
    • 1,409 Posts
    • 2,029 Thanks
    Filo25
    Bitcoin seems to have steadied the ship, talk of its demise were unfounded.
    Originally posted by Cotta
    From a complete outsider point of view Bitcoin just looks like an extremely volatile plaything of speculators and daytraders
    • Superscrooge
    • By Superscrooge 7th Feb 18, 11:34 AM
    • 1,066 Posts
    • 764 Thanks
    Superscrooge
    Bitcoin seems to have steadied the ship, talk of its demise were unfounded.
    Originally posted by Cotta
    Probably due to some people looking at the current stock market volatility and deciding equity investments look a bit risky, so lets invest in bitcoin
    • le loup
    • By le loup 7th Feb 18, 11:46 AM
    • 3,783 Posts
    • 3,735 Thanks
    le loup
    Probably due to some IDIOTS looking at the current stock market volatility and deciding equity investments look a bit risky, so lets invest in bitcoin
    Originally posted by Superscrooge
    There, made that more accurate.
    • Cash-Strapped.T32
    • By Cash-Strapped.T32 7th Feb 18, 1:03 PM
    • 472 Posts
    • 259 Thanks
    Cash-Strapped.T32
    How long are you planning to be invested in your stocks and shares for ?
    Originally posted by bcfclee27

    Honestly? I haven't decided yet.
    I'm 36 so as long as I can use my LISA early enough to have enough working life to pay off the mortgage, that's cushty.
    I had a working theory of around 5-6yrs when I was looking into transferring my H2B to a S&S LISA, but that window is flexible enough to be stretched if circumstances demand it.

    Basically, until I've got enough. How long that takes, I don't yet know.

    After April I'll be divying up my savings so that I've got a decent cash buffer in reserve then start drip feeding in a few quid per month into a S&S ISA for my midlife crisis fund...
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 7th Feb 18, 7:26 PM
    • 2,236 Posts
    • 1,631 Thanks
    Alexland
    Do you think it will drop further Alex or do you think it's starting to balance out now.....seems to be slowing down at least.
    Originally posted by bcfclee27
    Who knows? Sellers might be coming to the realization they overreacted as so many people have been waiting for a crash (markets don't die of old age...) or we could just be seeing a Dead Cat Bounce temporary recovery.

    I am not trying to time the market my strategy is to take a measured amount of risk inversely proportionate to the strength of the market.

    So if the market drops I am happy to take a bit more risk as there is less probability of further downside.

    Alex
    • takesyourchances
    • By takesyourchances 7th Feb 18, 10:25 PM
    • 597 Posts
    • 357 Thanks
    takesyourchances
    I have topped up a bit too, it just happened to be also my regular monthly investments went in today, as well as a bit extra lump sum start of the week. .

    My plan is just stick to the plan long term and buy through the highs and lows
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 8th Feb 18, 4:40 PM
    • 2,236 Posts
    • 1,631 Thanks
    Alexland
    Looks like another negative day for the markets today. The reallocation in my small Nutmeg account happened today so I am up to around 73% in equities now across my various accounts.
    • coastline
    • By coastline 8th Feb 18, 4:51 PM
    • 940 Posts
    • 1,083 Thanks
    coastline
    Looks like another negative day for the markets today. The reallocation in my small Nutmeg account happened today so I am up to around 73% in equities now across my various accounts.
    Originally posted by Alexland
    This is a great free site where you can watch various markets unfold even the out of hours stuff..
    Its worth a good look around when you have time..

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/stock-market
    • BrockStoker
    • By BrockStoker 8th Feb 18, 5:01 PM
    • 200 Posts
    • 87 Thanks
    BrockStoker
    It seems to be the threat of higher/quicker interest rate rises that spooked/is spooking the markets, and that has not gone away so I'm betting that there will be further falls/buying opportunities in the near future. I didn't buy anything the other day because of this.
    • Filo25
    • By Filo25 8th Feb 18, 5:05 PM
    • 1,409 Posts
    • 2,029 Thanks
    Filo25
    It seems to be the threat of higher/quicker interest rate rises that spooked/is spooking the markets, and that has not gone away so I'm betting that there will be further falls/buying opportunities in the near future. I didn't buy anything the other day because of this.
    Originally posted by BrockStoker
    After a little fall in the selloff, bond yields seem to have pretty much got back to their recent highs again in the US, and Carney's comments have pushed the UK's higher as well.

    I don't see the rate risk going away anytime soon, it is just a matter of the market adjusting to what it thinks are appropriate valuations with revised rate expectations.
    • fun4everyone
    • By fun4everyone 8th Feb 18, 5:05 PM
    • 953 Posts
    • 1,488 Thanks
    fun4everyone
    I won't be happy unless we get to at least 20% down. I want the panic induced headlines for some entertainment. Since I am going to be neither a seller or a buyer in the near future I would like some chaos please. RIP Deutchse Bank would be nice.
    • Filo25
    • By Filo25 8th Feb 18, 5:12 PM
    • 1,409 Posts
    • 2,029 Thanks
    Filo25
    I won't be happy unless we get to at least 20% down. I want the panic induced headlines for some entertainment. Since I am going to be neither a seller or a buyer in the near future I would like some chaos please. RIP Deutchse Bank would be nice.
    Originally posted by fun4everyone
    Personally I would love a major selloff from a purely selfish perspective, I aim to be putting a lot of money into my pension over the coming years!
    • economic
    • By economic 8th Feb 18, 5:44 PM
    • 2,936 Posts
    • 1,577 Thanks
    economic
    Still sitting on about 30% cash. If its a big sell off i am a buyer. If not then i am happy with my position.
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