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  • FIRST POST
    • BrockStoker
    • By BrockStoker 5th Feb 18, 8:32 PM
    • 200Posts
    • 87Thanks
    BrockStoker
    Correction in progress!
    • #1
    • 5th Feb 18, 8:32 PM
    Correction in progress! 5th Feb 18 at 8:32 PM
    I've just seen the largest (single day) spike in volatility I've ever experienced (currently @ 106%). Certainly it's looking like this is going to be the largest correction since 2015!

    https://uk.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500-chart

    Time to look at what to buy with the cash I've been holding!

    More inclined to look at overseas assets/equities, but I have been thinking about buying some UK micro-cap for a while, and possibly some Chinese equities. Any one else shopping right now?
Page 5
    • fun4everyone
    • By fun4everyone 6th Feb 18, 12:15 PM
    • 955 Posts
    • 1,489 Thanks
    fun4everyone
    'Yes Prime Minister' sketch for those that aren't familiar.....

    https://youtu.be/DGscoaUWW2M
    Originally posted by Superscrooge
    Amazing
    • worldtraveller
    • By worldtraveller 6th Feb 18, 12:15 PM
    • 11,689 Posts
    • 23,122 Thanks
    worldtraveller
    'Yes Prime Minister' sketch for those that aren't familiar.....

    https://youtu.be/DGscoaUWW2M
    Originally posted by Superscrooge
    LOL! Yes, a classic indeed and it reminded me well of a lecturer that used those same descriptions, including the Sun readers, to a mixed class, when I was at university in the late 70's. No way would he have got away with that today!
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
    • chockydavid1983
    • By chockydavid1983 6th Feb 18, 12:35 PM
    • 576 Posts
    • 345 Thanks
    chockydavid1983
    Wow, anyone would think this was a full blown crash already...
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 6th Feb 18, 12:40 PM
    • 58,210 Posts
    • 51,578 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    It looks to me like the big guys are taking profits and will re-invest those in a shortish timescale.
    Originally posted by DairyQueen
    To sell there needs to be a buyer. Prices do move without any actual trades.
    Financial disasters happen when the last person who can remember what went wrong last time has left the building.
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 6th Feb 18, 12:41 PM
    • 2,240 Posts
    • 1,632 Thanks
    Alexland
    Wow, anyone would think this was a full blown crash already...
    Originally posted by chockydavid1983
    We haven't moved onto Thatcher and Monty Python yet. If that happens you know some serious wealth has been destroyed.

    Alex
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 6th Feb 18, 12:52 PM
    • 4,114 Posts
    • 3,139 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    I always thought socialists don't do sarcasm
    Originally posted by MarcoM
    I'm not a socialist.
    I just believe in representing them truthfully.
    Oh and I don't think the Guardian Editor is against share dealing either because they have a section on it with share tips.
    (Don't know how they compare with other newspaper share tips as I don't read them)
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
    • TBC15
    • By TBC15 6th Feb 18, 12:56 PM
    • 450 Posts
    • 212 Thanks
    TBC15
    Do the tracker funds exacerbate these occasional corrections, I,e selling off because the sheep in front sold off?
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 6th Feb 18, 12:58 PM
    • 2,240 Posts
    • 1,632 Thanks
    Alexland
    Just moved a small Nutmeg account up a risk notch from 3 to 4 out of 5 but they only trade ETFs twice a week so no immediate effect. Still plenty of fuel in the tank incase this gets nasty.

    Caveat - these are all long term investments and I am still well within my target risk range. Happy to run with increased equities exposure until the recovery is complete whenever that may be.
    Last edited by Alexland; 06-02-2018 at 1:30 PM.
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 6th Feb 18, 1:01 PM
    • 4,114 Posts
    • 3,139 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    The remit of the Guardian is to paint a pretty bleak picture [of everything that is not left wing]. That is what it's readership want. They want to know the world is awful and the UK is wrong at everything and that we should all be atoning for our ancestors and we are all doomed unless Labour is in power.

    Each paper has a target market. The famous Yes Prime Minister sketch still works today. Although some of the papers have gone more extremist.
    Originally posted by dunstonh
    Yes, but UK politics has been drifting to the right over the last 40 years. What we call 'Socialist' policies like having the railways in public ownership are mainstream across the channel (where the railways are cheaper and better)
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 6th Feb 18, 1:13 PM
    • 2,387 Posts
    • 1,876 Thanks
    talexuser
    'Socialist' policies
    Originally posted by Glen Clark
    Let alone having to bail out the banks to allow free market economics to continue!
    • Filo25
    • By Filo25 6th Feb 18, 1:28 PM
    • 1,409 Posts
    • 2,029 Thanks
    Filo25
    Yes, but UK politics has been drifting to the right over the last 40 years. What we call 'Socialist' policies like having the railways in public ownership are mainstream across the channel (where the railways are cheaper and better)
    Originally posted by Glen Clark
    I would say the main reason railways are better and cheaper on the continent is that they are generally more heavily subsidised.
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 6th Feb 18, 1:29 PM
    • 4,114 Posts
    • 3,139 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    Let alone having to bail out the banks to allow free market economics to continue!
    Originally posted by talexuser
    We only have free market where it suits the vested interests.
    Housing for instance, they restrict the supply with planning constraints whilst stoking up demand with taxpayers money.
    Agricultural subsidies which go (indirectly) to wealthy landowners etc
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 6th Feb 18, 1:37 PM
    • 1,694 Posts
    • 1,090 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    The remit of the Guardian is to paint a pretty bleak picture [of everything that is not left wing]. That is what it's readership want. They want to know the world is awful and the UK is wrong at everything and that we should all be atoning for our ancestors and we are all doomed unless Labour is in power.

    Each paper has a target market. The famous Yes Prime Minister sketch still works today. Although some of the papers have gone more extremist.
    Originally posted by dunstonh
    It's all relative. A Corbyn supporter might see The Guardian as a neo-liberal rag with a remit to defend the Islington avocado toast brigade, others might see it as a paper with a history of crusading for social justice and even others see it as not far off The Morning Star. Personally I think the best publication in the UK is Private Eye as it has the most honesty between it's pages and the best and longest running gags.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • firestone
    • By firestone 6th Feb 18, 1:38 PM
    • 191 Posts
    • 81 Thanks
    firestone
    Do the tracker funds exacerbate these occasional corrections, I,e selling off because the sheep in front sold off?
    Originally posted by TBC15
    have seen people say that part of the rise over the last few years could be due to money going into trackers so assume if its true then it would also have some effect in reverse.
    But having a chat with a friend today who said a drop was ok as his tracker funds would rise again and go past their last high point in the future.While i agreed even further drops would not stop a rise in the future i asked how he could guarantee an index would always return to its high using Japan as an example ,he agreed in the end that he could not guarantee it.
    But just wondered if any more knowledgeable folks had a thought as to whether an index must continue to beat its high & is that not a weakness of trackers that seems not to get a mention in the sales buff?
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 6th Feb 18, 1:44 PM
    • 1,694 Posts
    • 1,090 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    But just wondered if any more knowledgeable folks had a thought as to whether an index must continue to beat its high & is that not a weakness of trackers that seems not to get a mention in the sales buff?
    Originally posted by firestone
    Its the same on the way down as on the way up....your Dow tracker will have lost 4.5% yesterday. Some active funds will do better and some worse and your multi asset funds will be rebalancing.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • 2010
    • By 2010 6th Feb 18, 1:45 PM
    • 4,187 Posts
    • 3,339 Thanks
    2010
    A lot of the sell off is automatic trades.
    When a certain support level is reached and broken they sell.
    It`s a snowball effect.

    Dow futures are down 300 points for later.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 6th Feb 18, 1:48 PM
    • 1,694 Posts
    • 1,090 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    We're all talking about a comparatively small drop in the markets......call me when something of note actually happens. The most important thing hanging out there is an increase in interest rates which is going to reduce CETV and maybe a significant jump in inflation which is going to affect everyone immediately. The other issue is obviously BREXIT, that's way bigger than a bit of a market slump. Place your bets for a Johnson/Mogg boom or a Treasury civil servant/Guardian bust.
    Last edited by bostonerimus; 06-02-2018 at 2:00 PM.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 6th Feb 18, 1:52 PM
    • 4,114 Posts
    • 3,139 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    Do the tracker funds exacerbate these occasional corrections, I,e selling off because the sheep in front sold off?
    Originally posted by TBC15
    The danger for trackers is that when hedge funds know trackers will have to buy/sell shares they can do it before them. Buying the shares the tracker will then have to buy from them at a higher price etc. What they call 'front running'
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
    • fun4everyone
    • By fun4everyone 6th Feb 18, 1:54 PM
    • 955 Posts
    • 1,489 Thanks
    fun4everyone
    But just wondered if any more knowledgeable folks had a thought as to whether an index must continue to beat its high & is that not a weakness of trackers that seems not to get a mention in the sales buff?
    Originally posted by firestone
    I am not necessarily "more knowledgeable" but what is true is that nothing "must continue" to happen and the future is unknown.

    What is however known is that capitalism will dominate and people will spend their money for essentials and to enjoy their lives. Barring some sort of global nuclear war that will continue. Recessions and economic cycles happen but that doesn't matter if you take a long term view.

    Headline numbers on indexes dont tell the story of dividends. These add to investors returns over and above the base index number and over the years they really add up, especially if they are reinvested. Have a look at this calculator which takes the s&p 500 (a huge portion of the worlds stock markets). It will give you total and annualised return percentages both with and without dividend reinvestment. Notice the dividend effect. Try and find a 30 year period where you would have lost money.

    https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

    You also mention the Nikkei which indeed is a freak case. The website also has a total return tool for that index. If you had invested your entire portfolio at the peak there (I chose Dec 89 for that) you would still be down nominally, and massively down to inflation. This shows you should be globally/sector diversified and not put all your retirement eggs in one basket.

    https://dqydj.com/nikkei-return-calculator-dividend-reinvestment/
    Last edited by fun4everyone; 06-02-2018 at 1:58 PM.
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 6th Feb 18, 1:55 PM
    • 4,114 Posts
    • 3,139 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    Personally I think the best publication in the UK is Private Eye as it has the most honesty between it's pages and the best and longest running gags.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    My favourite was the Daily Sport beause it didn't pretend to be an honest newspaper.
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
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