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  • FIRST POST
    • BrockStoker
    • By BrockStoker 5th Feb 18, 8:32 PM
    • 200Posts
    • 87Thanks
    BrockStoker
    Correction in progress!
    • #1
    • 5th Feb 18, 8:32 PM
    Correction in progress! 5th Feb 18 at 8:32 PM
    I've just seen the largest (single day) spike in volatility I've ever experienced (currently @ 106%). Certainly it's looking like this is going to be the largest correction since 2015!

    https://uk.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500-chart

    Time to look at what to buy with the cash I've been holding!

    More inclined to look at overseas assets/equities, but I have been thinking about buying some UK micro-cap for a while, and possibly some Chinese equities. Any one else shopping right now?
Page 3
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 6th Feb 18, 8:22 AM
    • 9,060 Posts
    • 9,974 Thanks
    AnotherJoe
    So would you guys say to a novice that today would be a good day to open the stocks and shares JISA and LISA they were imminently planning to open?!
    Originally posted by lolamancity
    I'd say to the novice that there's a big difference between opening accounts and investing in them. Opening them has no financial implications*, you don't have to buy investments immediately.

    * other than it means you can take account of this tax years allowances
    • Drp8713
    • By Drp8713 6th Feb 18, 8:35 AM
    • 781 Posts
    • 645 Thanks
    Drp8713
    Bought into TR European Growth Trust this morning after the 5% fall.

    Diverted my ISA and LISA amounts that were going into cash this month into Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon which is 7% down and Standard Life UK Smaler Cos Trust.

    Have been wanting to increase my exposure to smaller cos, might as well do it while the sales are on as they usually get hit hardest.
    • lolamancity
    • By lolamancity 6th Feb 18, 8:50 AM
    • 179 Posts
    • 99 Thanks
    lolamancity
    I'd say to the novice that there's a big difference between opening accounts and investing in them. Opening them has no financial implications*, you don't have to buy investments immediately.

    * other than it means you can take account of this tax years allowances
    Originally posted by AnotherJoe
    Thanks! More. Specifically, the S&S JISA's will be starting with decent amounts as they're being transferred into from a cash ISA.
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 6th Feb 18, 9:21 AM
    • 4,115 Posts
    • 3,140 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    Both are down. This isn't even remotely a crash. so as long as you are mentally prepared to see as I have 1000 knocked off a 25k investment then crack on.
    Originally posted by Fatbritabroad
    That isn't a crash either. As I recall the S&P 500 lost 38% in 2008. But it recovered over the next couple of years.
    I can remember 25% inflation in Sterling so am keeping my equities. With so much being sold there must be a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting to jump back in
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
    • DairyQueen
    • By DairyQueen 6th Feb 18, 9:23 AM
    • 229 Posts
    • 379 Thanks
    DairyQueen
    Very interesting watching prices steam since the markets opened. Initial 3%+ drop on UK indices now recovered to under 2% drop on the 100 and All Share. Looks like Europe is following suit.

    Not exactly the bloodbath suggested by headlines.

    Just checked prices again. The 100 is now under 1.6% drop and the All Share under 1.7%.

    Can someone please explain what all the fuss is about? I may be naive but US and Asia is looking like a sharp but straightforward correction. UK and Europe: less sharp and a tad infected by US/Asian markets? Or am I missing something?
    • BananaRepublic
    • By BananaRepublic 6th Feb 18, 9:31 AM
    • 1,191 Posts
    • 871 Thanks
    BananaRepublic
    The S&P drop was the largest since 2008, which is significant. The markets are quite high, especially the US ones. Corrections and crashes can continue for months, so it could be an interesting ride. Or it might be nothing, just a wee wobble. I'd love a nice crash, take some air out of the market, a year or two of wobbliness to prepare it for the next bull run.
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 6th Feb 18, 9:37 AM
    • 9,060 Posts
    • 9,974 Thanks
    AnotherJoe
    Thanks! More. Specifically, the S&S JISA's will be starting with decent amounts as they're being transferred into from a cash ISA.
    Originally posted by lolamancity
    So thats cash thats merely moved location.

    Now you have to decide when to invest it.

    Only after you've invested it do you need to fret about stock market movements.
    • dunstonh
    • By dunstonh 6th Feb 18, 9:38 AM
    • 92,222 Posts
    • 59,400 Thanks
    dunstonh
    Yikes. Just logged into my pension and S&S ISA accounts. Wish I hadn't.
    This is just a minor drop so far. It is not even classed as a correction yet (10% triggers that). How are you going to react when a crash comes?


    Can someone please explain what all the fuss is about?
    A mixture of media sensationalism and increase in DIY investors who often invest above their risk profile and knowledge and worrying about very small levels of short term losses.
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). Comments are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 6th Feb 18, 9:39 AM
    • 9,060 Posts
    • 9,974 Thanks
    AnotherJoe
    Very interesting watching prices steam since the markets opened. Initial 3%+ drop on UK indices now recovered to under 2% drop on the 100 and All Share. Looks like Europe is following suit.

    Not exactly the bloodbath suggested by headlines.

    Just checked prices again. The 100 is now under 1.6% drop and the All Share under 1.7%.

    Can someone please explain what all the fuss is about? I may be naive but US and Asia is looking like a sharp but straightforward correction. UK and Europe: less sharp and a tad infected by US/Asian markets? Or am I missing something?
    Originally posted by DairyQueen
    Yep, you are missing the fact that the media likes big scary headlines.
    A couple of days ago the BBC spent a full minute commenting on Apple's results.
    50 seconds on iPhone X sales not being as high as expected.
    10 seconds on Apple's profits being the largest ever recorded.
    • DairyQueen
    • By DairyQueen 6th Feb 18, 9:52 AM
    • 229 Posts
    • 379 Thanks
    DairyQueen
    The S&P drop was the largest since 2008, which is significant. The markets are quite high, especially the US ones. Corrections and crashes can continue for months, so it could be an interesting ride. Or it might be nothing, just a wee wobble. I'd love a nice crash, take some air out of the market, a year or two of wobbliness to prepare it for the next bull run.
    Originally posted by BananaRepublic
    Thanks for the background info.

    But relative to the steep rise in the US (especially over the last 18 months) the drop doesn't look scary to me (yet). Should I be reacting somehow? Stop buffing my nails and do something proactive?

    I have no plans to withdraw/change allocations/sell/buy/rebalance for the rest of this year as have just completed that exercise. Also no plans to add significant new money to the portfolio anytime soon. I do have 4% in cash. I'm thinking of hanging onto that for the mo and investing if (when?) the nasty hits the fan (10%+ drop?)

    P'raps I should use this time to research a good destination for the cash? The US being first choice.
    • MarcoM
    • By MarcoM 6th Feb 18, 9:56 AM
    • 503 Posts
    • 69 Thanks
    MarcoM
    if one read the guardian it would appear that the stock market has been annihilated; the economy, shares, currencies and property don't exist anymore and we are now dealing in pears and apples.
    • worldtraveller
    • By worldtraveller 6th Feb 18, 10:09 AM
    • 11,694 Posts
    • 23,185 Thanks
    worldtraveller
    if one read the guardian it would appear that the stock market has been annihilated; the economy, shares, currencies and property don't exist anymore and we are now dealing in pears and apples.
    Originally posted by MarcoM
    You can add to that most of the mainstream media, including the BBC. It's frankly pathetic the way that they describe the current situation, which, IMHO, is merely a correction that's been due for some time.

    Personally I believe that we're currently in one of the largest global growth phases for a generation, lasting well into next year, bar, of course, the usual corrections from time to time, or a major international incident.
    Last edited by worldtraveller; 06-02-2018 at 10:11 AM.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
    • OldMusicGuy
    • By OldMusicGuy 6th Feb 18, 10:14 AM
    • 335 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    OldMusicGuy
    The thing that I have found interesting is to watch the relative performance of my different funds in this dip. First time everything in the portfolio has gone down at once (only been holding it in this form for just over 12 months). Although this market movement isn't so far anything serious, it's still good feedback for long term planning.

    And I am annoyed I decided to switch 50K from cash to one of the HSBC funds 10 days ago instead of now!!!
    • Filo25
    • By Filo25 6th Feb 18, 10:16 AM
    • 1,417 Posts
    • 2,035 Thanks
    Filo25
    if one read the guardian it would appear that the stock market has been annihilated; the economy, shares, currencies and property don't exist anymore and we are now dealing in pears and apples.
    Originally posted by MarcoM
    Reporting has always been like that in significant down days, its a rare chance to drag some sensationalist reporting out of finance.

    No less predictable than the ramping of the markets through other channels.

    Not exactly calling a crash and the end of the world myself but I think the concerns about global growth looking stronger pretty much everywhere and the US fiscal stimulus on top of that will leading to inflation and higher rates aren't ludicrous, they just might take a while to play out.

    Not changing any of my positions in response either, If it continued long enough I suppose the only change I would be tempted to make would be to rotate some short dated bonds back into equities, but only a relatively minor correction for now so hasn't radically changed anything.
    Last edited by Filo25; 06-02-2018 at 10:34 AM.
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 6th Feb 18, 10:16 AM
    • 4,115 Posts
    • 3,140 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    if one read the guardian it would appear that the stock market has been annihilated; the economy, shares, currencies and property don't exist anymore and we are now dealing in pears and apples.
    Originally posted by MarcoM
    Nope, it doesn't say that.
    So you are the one doing most of the exaggerating
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
    • vacheron
    • By vacheron 6th Feb 18, 10:17 AM
    • 820 Posts
    • 759 Thanks
    vacheron
    I'm not doing a thing.

    The 10 or so shares I currently hold in would need to fall another 10%-15% from where they now before I would consider this an half decent opportunity to buy through any dip, and I'm leaving my regular fund and pension investments exactly as they are.

    I'd suggest that anyone in for the long term should avoid the hype and certainly not listen to the mainstream media's sensationaist take on the situation.

    Miles Jupp put it very well here (youtube link):

    (the video should automatically start at the right location, but if not, jump forward to 5 minutes 50 seconds.
    Last edited by vacheron; 06-02-2018 at 10:20 AM.
    • The rich buy assets.
    • The poor only have expenses.
    • The middle class buy liabilities they think are assets.
    Robert T. Kiyosaki
    • movilogo
    • By movilogo 6th Feb 18, 10:20 AM
    • 2,333 Posts
    • 1,569 Thanks
    movilogo
    Just logged into my ISA S&S. It is not that bad as I have expected reading the news. Yes, values have fallen but not end of the world and should recover.
    Happiness is buying an item and then not checking its price after a month to discover it was reduced further.
    • MarcoM
    • By MarcoM 6th Feb 18, 10:25 AM
    • 503 Posts
    • 69 Thanks
    MarcoM
    Nope, it doesn't say that.
    So you are the one doing most of the exaggerating
    Originally posted by Glen Clark

    I understand guardian editors (read socialists ) don't do share dealing out of principle but you must admit the guardian paints a pretty bleak picture if you read the headline.
    • MarcoM
    • By MarcoM 6th Feb 18, 10:28 AM
    • 503 Posts
    • 69 Thanks
    MarcoM
    The thing that I have found interesting is to watch the relative performance of my different funds in this dip. First time everything in the portfolio has gone down at once (only been holding it in this form for just over 12 months). Although this market movement isn't so far anything serious, it's still good feedback for long term planning.

    And I am annoyed I decided to switch 50K from cash to one of the HSBC funds 10 days ago instead of now!!!
    Originally posted by OldMusicGuy

    Not as bad as what I have done.
    My funds were always meant to be used for a house purchase.


    I thought of selling them two months ago so that we would have a defined amount of cash. I got greedy hoping for more and look at it now...
    • Filo25
    • By Filo25 6th Feb 18, 10:36 AM
    • 1,417 Posts
    • 2,035 Thanks
    Filo25
    Not as bad as what I have done.
    My funds were always meant to be used for a house purchase.


    I thought of selling them two months ago so that we would have a defined amount of cash. I got greedy hoping for more and look at it now...
    Originally posted by MarcoM
    Fortunately if you are well diversified globally your funds probably are probably worth a similar amount to 2 months ago anyway
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