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  • FIRST POST
    • bcfclee27
    • By bcfclee27 3rd Feb 18, 9:27 AM
    • 179Posts
    • 45Thanks
    bcfclee27
    Timing the market
    • #1
    • 3rd Feb 18, 9:27 AM
    Timing the market 3rd Feb 18 at 9:27 AM
    Over the next week or so I will be investing in VLS and HSBC.

    However many predicting a crash is on the way.

    I know the saying it's not timing the market but time in the market.

    Is it worth holding off 12 months or is it literally a case of nobody knows when the crash is coming might be 4 months might be 4 years in which case I may well have missed out of 4 years growth.

    Kinda answered my own question but as a newbie investor just wondered from more experienced investors would you hold off a bit or just dive in.

    Thanks
Page 4
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 4th Feb 18, 7:46 PM
    • 2,387 Posts
    • 1,876 Thanks
    talexuser
    Yes but interest rate rises have been predicted ever since 2007 when we had this emergency interest rate of 0.5% introduced.
    Originally posted by Glen Clark
    Basically agree but more interested in the Fed and what happens as Trump stokes up a boom that starts inflation - but again inflation is a way out of debt so may be wanted.
    • BananaRepublic
    • By BananaRepublic 4th Feb 18, 9:50 PM
    • 1,191 Posts
    • 871 Thanks
    BananaRepublic
    Basically agree but more interested in the Fed and what happens as Trump stokes up a boom that starts inflation - but again inflation is a way out of debt so may be wanted.
    Originally posted by talexuser
    Quite. Although we are well into a bull market, Trump’s tax cuts may well allow a few more years of growth before the inevitable crash. Then there is Brexit which will hit us, and perhaps Europe albeit less so I imagine.
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 5th Feb 18, 9:05 AM
    • 2,387 Posts
    • 1,876 Thanks
    talexuser
    Somehow, for a man who has filed for bankruptcy six times on various ventures, I don't think Trump can even manage the forward thinking to plan inflating away the debt.
    • Shashy
    • By Shashy 5th Feb 18, 10:44 AM
    • 93 Posts
    • 116 Thanks
    Shashy
    Can I quickly say, bcfclee27, that it's been refreshing to see you 'ask, absorb, learn, repeat' over the past few weeks, after arriving here with relatively little understanding and knowledge.

    It can be infuriating to see members join the forums and either ignore advice or decide they know better - so nice one.

    ...and good luck with your investments!
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 5th Feb 18, 5:59 PM
    • 4,114 Posts
    • 3,139 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    Basically agree but more interested in the Fed and what happens as Trump stokes up a boom that starts inflation - but again inflation is a way out of debt so may be wanted.
    Originally posted by talexuser
    Well yes Trump is doing the same as Britain - borrowing to cut taxes for the better off. Whilst using stealth taxes like inflation to tax people who don't realise how they are being cheated by the system. So as Trump is a big borrower I expect him to want interest rates below inflation, same as UK.
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 5th Feb 18, 7:14 PM
    • 2,241 Posts
    • 1,632 Thanks
    Alexland
    Invest in line with your volatility tollerence using shares, bonds and some cash (incase both shares and bonds drop). Then if it gets bad enough (this week was not too bad) you can start moving cash in from the sidelines and increasing your shares percentage to give a quicker recovery.

    Others will say just leave it which I mostly agree with as strategic asset allocation for the majority of the value but some tactical asset allocation for a small proportion may be beneficial. Even if just leaving it then some cash boosts returns through the magic of rebalancing.
    Originally posted by Alexland
    Market is starting to look a bit more attractive so just reduced my cash from 10% down to 9%. Still plenty left incase something unexpectedly bad happens.

    Alex
    • bcfclee27
    • By bcfclee27 5th Feb 18, 7:39 PM
    • 179 Posts
    • 45 Thanks
    bcfclee27
    Can I quickly say, bcfclee27, that it's been refreshing to see you 'ask, absorb, learn, repeat' over the past few weeks, after arriving here with relatively little understanding and knowledge.

    It can be infuriating to see members join the forums and either ignore advice or decide they know better - so nice one.

    ...and good luck with your investments!
    Originally posted by Shashy
    Thanks Shashy, I'm learning very very slowly but really enjoy it as well. You lot on here are phenomenal, very welcoming and helpful and always willing to offer advice no matter how stupid the question.

    In my case I see investing as a massive opportunity but also something I need to really research before I actually invest in the funds I choose. Once I've done that I can calm down and leave them to do their thing
    • bcfclee27
    • By bcfclee27 5th Feb 18, 7:41 PM
    • 179 Posts
    • 45 Thanks
    bcfclee27
    Market is starting to look a bit more attractive so just reduced my cash from 10% down to 9%. Still plenty left incase something unexpectedly bad happens.

    Alex
    Originally posted by Alexland
    Just looked and the funds I'm looking at (HSBC & VLS) have fallen again, is this what you mean by attractive as in buying more when they're falling etc.
    Or have I read the markets wrong and things have gone up in price ?
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 5th Feb 18, 7:51 PM
    • 2,241 Posts
    • 1,632 Thanks
    Alexland
    Just looked and the funds I'm looking at (HSBC & VLS) have fallen again, is this what you mean by attractive as in buying more when they're falling etc. Or have I read the markets wrong and things have gone up in price ?
    Originally posted by bcfclee27
    You are reading the markets correctly we are suffering a small blip on the journey. In the long term it doesn't matter but as markets go down then there is a bit less probability of further downside so it may make sense to take tactical manouvers to start increasing exposure to shares.

    I am not going to try and guess where the top or bottom of the market may be. Nobody knows.
    Last edited by Alexland; 05-02-2018 at 8:47 PM. Reason: Typo
    • bcfclee27
    • By bcfclee27 5th Feb 18, 8:08 PM
    • 179 Posts
    • 45 Thanks
    bcfclee27
    You are reading the markets correctly we are suffering a small blip on the journey. In the long term it doesn't matter but as markets go down then there is a bit less probability of further downside so it may make sense to take tactical manouvers to start increasing exposure to shares.

    I am not going to try and guess where the top of bottom of the market may be. Nobody knows.
    Originally posted by Alexland
    No that makes sense Alex, just wanted to check I was reading things correctly.
    • Filo25
    • By Filo25 5th Feb 18, 8:11 PM
    • 1,411 Posts
    • 2,030 Thanks
    Filo25
    Interesting day on the US markets, really getting pounded at present, it will be interesting to see if it can pull back any of this towards the close.

    Not even really driven by any news today, bonds haven't been selling off.
    • Audaxer
    • By Audaxer 5th Feb 18, 8:19 PM
    • 1,019 Posts
    • 590 Thanks
    Audaxer
    Just looked and the funds I'm looking at (HSBC & VLS) have fallen again, is this what you mean by attractive as in buying more when they're falling etc.
    Or have I read the markets wrong and things have gone up in price ?
    Originally posted by bcfclee27
    Yes, the HSBC price has been updated and fallen again, but the VLS prices are not usually updated until the morning, but I think it's a fair bet they will have fallen again as most stocks have dropped a bit more again today.
    • BananaRepublic
    • By BananaRepublic 5th Feb 18, 8:30 PM
    • 1,191 Posts
    • 871 Thanks
    BananaRepublic
    It could be that we are seeing a correction, perhaps influenced by the Bitcoin crash, along with US interest rates rising. We have after all seen some glorious gains over the last couple of years.
    • scoot65
    • By scoot65 5th Feb 18, 10:41 PM
    • 174 Posts
    • 77 Thanks
    scoot65
    Yes, the HSBC price has been updated and fallen again, but the VLS prices are not usually updated until the morning, but I think it's a fair bet they will have fallen again as most stocks have dropped a bit more again today.
    Originally posted by Audaxer
    Where's a good site to monitor price movements on VLS / HBSC GS et al?
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 5th Feb 18, 10:51 PM
    • 58,216 Posts
    • 51,580 Thanks
    Thrugelmir

    Not even really driven by any news today.
    Originally posted by Filo25
    Markets are looking forward, where there's already plenty on the horizon. Shares are priced on future prospects not just today's news.
    Financial disasters happen when the last person who can remember what went wrong last time has left the building.
    • ValiantSon
    • By ValiantSon 6th Feb 18, 1:16 PM
    • 1,606 Posts
    • 1,352 Thanks
    ValiantSon
    The fund pages on your platform should show daily change and probably graphs showing movement over set time periods. You could also use Trustnet, with whom you can also create an account and monitor funds in your portfolio.
    • scoot65
    • By scoot65 6th Feb 18, 1:31 PM
    • 174 Posts
    • 77 Thanks
    scoot65
    The fund pages on your platform should show daily change and probably graphs showing movement over set time periods. You could also use Trustnet, with whom you can also create an account and monitor funds in your portfolio.
    Originally posted by ValiantSon
    Thanks for the info, much appreciated!
    • atush
    • By atush 6th Feb 18, 3:16 PM
    • 16,640 Posts
    • 10,343 Thanks
    atush
    Markets are looking forward, where there's already plenty on the horizon. Shares are priced on future prospects not just today's news.
    Originally posted by Thrugelmir

    Originally Posted by Filo25 View Post

    Not even really driven by any news today.
    I thought the US sell off was influenced by Fridays better than expectd jobs report. Fearing wage inflation will mean higher interest rates?
    • Filo25
    • By Filo25 6th Feb 18, 3:40 PM
    • 1,411 Posts
    • 2,030 Thanks
    Filo25
    I thought the US sell off was influenced by Fridays better than expectd jobs report. Fearing wage inflation will mean higher interest rates?
    Originally posted by atush
    Certainly true of the decline on Friday, but on Monday bond yields actually fell
    • ArchBair
    • By ArchBair 6th Feb 18, 4:09 PM
    • 88 Posts
    • 31 Thanks
    ArchBair
    My missus sold out of Fundsmith in her S&S ISA account a few weeks ago when the price hit 373.50. It wasn't that she was trying to time the market but more a case that she was very happy with the profits made over the past couple of years and decided to cash in so it was a lucky call. She now has this money to re-invest in her ISA portfolio at better prices for most funds whereas I stayed fully invested in the market. Drinks are on her this week!
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