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    • SavvySaver24
    • By SavvySaver24 1st Feb 18, 9:14 AM
    • 29Posts
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    SavvySaver24
    Thoughts on House Pricing..
    • #1
    • 1st Feb 18, 9:14 AM
    Thoughts on House Pricing.. 1st Feb 18 at 9:14 AM
    Hey All,

    Just want to get some thoughts as to whether I am wildly out of touch with my house pricing expectations..

    So, we have found this lovely village location has a row of 9 cute cottages one.Two are currently on the market, and I have found out one is going on in a couple of months. I have been tracking Zoopla carefully in regards to the buying and selling prices of all 9 houses.

    So, in regards to the 2 currently on the market, both need significant work to modernise/open up the kitchen etc.Both are identical in layout. Both are terraced.

    House A - Is on the market for 350,000 (went on 3 weeks ago).

    House B - Is on the market for 360,000 (went on in August 2017).

    We put an offer in for House A that wasn't accepted, but we know the highest offer they have had so far is between 325,000 and 330,000.

    Through friends of friends we have found out that House C is going on the market. This house was last sold in 2006 for 255,000. House C is fully renovated, has had a loft conversion and has had the kitchen and dinning room to create one large kitchen diner. It would need NO work doing to it.

    Looking at Zoopla it was put on the market both in March and July 2016, for 410,000!! But didn't sell. Keep in mind all renovation work was done PRIOR to the 2006 purchase.That equates to a rise of 160% over 12 years.

    In our own heads (prior to finding out on Zoopla how much it was up for in 2016), we thought 370,000 would have been a fair price on the basis of how much the two others on the row are up for, and the realistic offers they have had. And we would have spoken to her in the hope of maybe getting a private sale to knock of the EA fees, could have also moved at her own pace as we are first time buyers etc.

    So my question is, am I wildly out of touch!? Based on Zoopla house prices in that postcode have gone up 39% in the last 10 years, but 255,000 to 410,000 is 160%! What am I missing :/
Page 2
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 3rd Feb 18, 6:21 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    I struggle to see how rates moving up could NOT be relevant to house pricing?
    • 51mm5
    • By 51mm5 3rd Feb 18, 7:16 PM
    • 31 Posts
    • 15 Thanks
    51mm5
    Rates do have an effect but it is not the only factor. There are supply and demand factors at play also as well as a whole host of others. No one can easily predict house prices because of the complexity of factors, you and the house price crash crew have been trying for 10+ years and have called it spectacularly wrong.
    • buggy_boy
    • By buggy_boy 3rd Feb 18, 7:27 PM
    • 410 Posts
    • 271 Thanks
    buggy_boy
    I struggle to see how rates moving up could NOT be relevant to house pricing?
    Originally posted by Crashy Time

    Its your usual copy and paste from a link at housepricecrash.co.uk its a very tenuous link and more based on american markets and american interest rates... I could post a link saying food prices are going up (With the link if people need to spend more on food they wont be able to spend money on property so it will drop)..

    Your link is a nothing story, the DOW "might" have dropped because of a "Fear" of a "possible" rate rise, that "might" have a knock on effect to the uk which "might" mean rates rise slightly faster. There are a lot tenuous links, If you had posted a link that said interest rates had risen and banks were going to pass that onto mortgages then I would say relevant.

    For years you have been saying a crash is coming, just because a crash will happen at some point does not mean it is imminent, although according to you it has been imminent for years... Your the kind of person that stands on a corner and says "The world is about to end". The world will end at some point..
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 3rd Feb 18, 7:52 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    Its your usual copy and paste from a link at housepricecrash.co.uk its a very tenuous link and more based on american markets and american interest rates... I could post a link saying food prices are going up (With the link if people need to spend more on food they wont be able to spend money on property so it will drop)..

    Your link is a nothing story, the DOW "might" have dropped because of a "Fear" of a "possible" rate rise, that "might" have a knock on effect to the uk which "might" mean rates rise slightly faster. There are a lot tenuous links, If you had posted a link that said interest rates had risen and banks were going to pass that onto mortgages then I would say relevant.

    For years you have been saying a crash is coming, just because a crash will happen at some point does not mean it is imminent, although according to you it has been imminent for years... Your the kind of person that stands on a corner and says "The world is about to end". The world will end at some point..
    Originally posted by buggy_boy

    So the recent market moves didn`t happen, and you claim to know better than the aggregate market what will happen to interest rates?
    • PokerPlayer111
    • By PokerPlayer111 3rd Feb 18, 8:27 PM
    • 248 Posts
    • 85 Thanks
    PokerPlayer111
    Rates do have an effect but it is not the only factor. There are supply and demand factors at play also as well as a whole host of others. No one can easily predict house prices because of the complexity of factors, you and the house price crash crew have been trying for 10+ years and have called it spectacularly wrong.
    Originally posted by 51mm5
    10 years might not be enough, this chart is pretty decent representation of market psychology, it is usually pretty good at predicting:

    https://imgur.com/a/qaN8I

    The chart is over exaggerated to make a clear point. Maybe just a house correction is coming say 30% dip ?

    It does seem like we are more likely in the return to "normal" section, maybe a little below. We'll soon find out if any fear starts to set in.

    The peak is 2007 in this chart, and if you check house prices with an inflation adjuster calculator it does seem about right?

    Im 80% bear 20% bull as i said in another thread.
    Last edited by PokerPlayer111; 03-02-2018 at 8:30 PM.
    • _CC_
    • By _CC_ 3rd Feb 18, 8:28 PM
    • 297 Posts
    • 278 Thanks
    _CC_
    Crashy will continue to spout his nonsense in this section of the board because he genuinely believes he can help initiate a crash by scaring sellers/buyers on a popular forum.

    Similar to the made up threads you get cropping up from time to time which have similar motives.
    • _CC_
    • By _CC_ 3rd Feb 18, 8:37 PM
    • 297 Posts
    • 278 Thanks
    _CC_
    I struggle to see how rates moving up could NOT be relevant to house pricing?
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    The link you posted was about equities, not UK houses.

    Of course equities are going to sell off as bonds become slightly more attractive.

    Rates affect housing with regards to affordability. What is the yield on 10 year gilts after these movements? What rates can house purchasers currently fix at for 5 / 10 years?
    • jimbog
    • By jimbog 3rd Feb 18, 10:32 PM
    • 680 Posts
    • 1,101 Thanks
    jimbog
    So the recent market moves didn`t happen?
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    They certainly did. In case you missed them:

    http://www.cityam.com/279865/nationwide-house-price-index-annual-rate-house-price-growth
    The problem with quotations on the internet is that you can never verify their authenticity - Abraham Lincoln
    • buggy_boy
    • By buggy_boy 4th Feb 18, 9:42 AM
    • 410 Posts
    • 271 Thanks
    buggy_boy
    So the recent market moves didn`t happen, and you claim to know better than the aggregate market what will happen to interest rates?
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    Would that be pretty much every index saying house prices have risen in the last year? Or are you trying to hope that the few indexes that have said there has been a slight fall for a month or two (Often happens this time of year) means it must be a trend for house prices crashing?
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 4th Feb 18, 12:34 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    Would that be pretty much every index saying house prices have risen in the last year? Or are you trying to hope that the few indexes that have said there has been a slight fall for a month or two (Often happens this time of year) means it must be a trend for house prices crashing?
    Originally posted by buggy_boy

    I am talking about the bond market, not a house price index. The financial markets are anticipating higher interest rates, if you think you know better you should borrow as much as you can and buy as many houses as you can (or did you already do that )
    • steven_norfield
    • By steven_norfield 9th Feb 18, 10:24 PM
    • 4 Posts
    • 2 Thanks
    steven_norfield
    Right, pick up zoopla, and throw it away. Its useless for trying to negotiate or consider house prices.


    al Zoopla does is take the last known sale price and apply the local increase rates, it can't factor in anything else, such as condition, local market boom (here in Cambridge for example Astra Zenica has had a massive effect over the last 2 years), local factors and indeed, the vendors personal circumstances.


    A vendor in a chain or who is trying to purchase a particular house may take 330k for a 350k house, but someone who isn't under time pressure simply won't.
    • cjdavies
    • By cjdavies 10th Feb 18, 7:23 AM
    • 3,295 Posts
    • 3,511 Thanks
    cjdavies
    I bought a house and previous owner paid half of that less than a year ago.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 10th Feb 18, 3:16 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    I bought a house and previous owner paid half of that less than a year ago.
    Originally posted by cjdavies

    Where was that?
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