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  • FIRST POST
    • ColdIron
    • By ColdIron 22nd Dec 17, 10:32 AM
    • 4,149Posts
    • 5,230Thanks
    ColdIron
    Bitcoin's gone a bit quiet
    • #1
    • 22nd Dec 17, 10:32 AM
    Bitcoin's gone a bit quiet 22nd Dec 17 at 10:32 AM
    A 30% plunge in a week, approaching 2008/09 GFC proportions, and not a peep. I wonder how many have been badly burned by buying into the recent hype and are now hoping for a 50% rise just to cover losses. I'm not trying to be inflammatory, just an observation about the recent lack of commentary and threads
Page 4
    • Lord Baltimore
    • By Lord Baltimore 7th Feb 18, 11:02 PM
    • 1,313 Posts
    • 1,305 Thanks
    Lord Baltimore
    This Timothy guy obviously an early riser, do you have a link to his blog? Does he have any take on safe withdrawal rates?
    Originally posted by TBC15
    Just checked his blog: it seems ‘safe wthdrawal’ Is unreliable, always wear a condom.
    all your base are belong to us
    • pjcox2005
    • By pjcox2005 8th Feb 18, 8:46 AM
    • 522 Posts
    • 579 Thanks
    pjcox2005
    @worldtraveler - has the stages graph been modelled on bitcoin, or does it hold up for other bubbles like dot com etc in the past?
    • worldtraveller
    • By worldtraveller 8th Feb 18, 9:22 AM
    • 11,741 Posts
    • 23,393 Thanks
    worldtraveller
    @worldtraveler - has the stages graph been modelled on bitcoin, or does it hold up for other bubbles like dot com etc in the past?
    Originally posted by pjcox2005
    No, Jean-Paul Rodrigue published this some time back in his book, "The Geography of Transport Systems", which was first published in 2006. It can be applied to earlier "bubbles", including the likes of web/tech stocks (deflated in 2000), U.S. real estate (deflated in 2006) & commodities (deflated in 2008).

    Stages in a Bubble - The Geography of Transport Systems
    Jean-Paul Rodrigue

    The one I always remember from my economics studies was the South Sea Bubble (1720), but "Gouda Tulip Bulbs" was another earlier bubble.

    Last edited by worldtraveller; 08-02-2018 at 10:32 AM.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
    • planteria
    • By planteria 8th Feb 18, 10:23 AM
    • 4,987 Posts
    • 1,107 Thanks
    planteria
    Those in power now or possibly even a flaw in the protocol by the originator Satoshi.

    However its open source which means adaption and improvisation is open, the market itself can determine a different direction.
    Originally posted by sabretoothtigger
    ...exactement. no lapse of judgement. that there is no one 'in power' is the point.

    it did dip that low worldtraveller, but is back well above $8000 again now. i am tempted to have a dabble, but want to see another drop before i do so. fwiw i can see both sides of this debate, but i expect some serious money will be made with CCs this year.
    • coastline
    • By coastline 8th Feb 18, 11:46 AM
    • 940 Posts
    • 1,083 Thanks
    coastline
    @worldtraveler - has the stages graph been modelled on bitcoin, or does it hold up for other bubbles like dot com etc in the past?
    Originally posted by pjcox2005


    FTSE share Provident recently..

    • TBC15
    • By TBC15 8th Feb 18, 4:43 PM
    • 465 Posts
    • 240 Thanks
    TBC15
    I give up. What am I looking at?

    Edit Apart from the obvious, graphs.
    Last edited by TBC15; 08-02-2018 at 4:45 PM.
    • badger09
    • By badger09 8th Feb 18, 5:03 PM
    • 5,944 Posts
    • 5,283 Thanks
    badger09
    I give up. What am I looking at?

    Edit Apart from the obvious, graphs.
    Originally posted by TBC15
    A newbie investor's ECG over the last few days?
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 8th Feb 18, 7:39 PM
    • 2,388 Posts
    • 1,789 Thanks
    Alexland
    A newbie investor's ECG over the last few days?
    Originally posted by badger09
    Nice one. I was feeling pretty relaxed about the market movements and was updating my spreadsheets with revised asset data until I was stupid enough to see that Zoopla reckon our house has gone down in value nearly £40k in the past week for no obvious reason - which is completely useless information as we only have a small mortgage left and don't intend to move for at least 20 years. Still a bit annoying.

    Alex
    Last edited by Alexland; 08-02-2018 at 8:36 PM.
    • ValiantSon
    • By ValiantSon 8th Feb 18, 9:04 PM
    • 1,846 Posts
    • 1,713 Thanks
    ValiantSon
    Nice one. I was feeling pretty relaxed about the market movements and was updating my spreadsheets with revised asset data until I was stupid enough to see that Zoopla reckon our house has gone down in value nearly £40k in the past week for no obvious reason - which is completely useless information as we only have a small mortgage left and don't intend to move for at least 20 years. Still a bit annoying.

    Alex
    Originally posted by Alexland
    I shouldn't worry; Zoopla's valuations are absolutely meaningless.
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 8th Feb 18, 9:35 PM
    • 2,388 Posts
    • 1,789 Thanks
    Alexland
    I shouldn't worry; Zoopla's valuations are absolutely meaningless.
    Originally posted by ValiantSon
    I know but it's just an easy number to stick in a spreadsheet to see my total asset position. It doesn't matter if it's a bit wrong as I am not planning on selling the property at the Zoopla price. So even though I know its meaningless somehow it has annoyed me.
    Last edited by Alexland; 08-02-2018 at 9:41 PM.
    • ValiantSon
    • By ValiantSon 8th Feb 18, 9:49 PM
    • 1,846 Posts
    • 1,713 Thanks
    ValiantSon
    I know but it's just an easy number to stick in a spreadsheet to see my total asset position. It doesn't matter if it's a bit wrong as I am not planning on selling the property at the Zoopla price. So even though I know its meaningless somehow it has annoyed me.
    Originally posted by Alexland


    How do you think I feel when they tell me that the 3 bed detached house down the road is worth £140,000 more than my 5 bed detached house? This would be the same house that sold seven months ago for £175,000 less than they say it is now worth. (Honestly, I'm not bothered, but I do find it quite funny. How can they be so wrong?).
    • fun4everyone
    • By fun4everyone 8th Feb 18, 10:28 PM
    • 987 Posts
    • 1,520 Thanks
    fun4everyone
    I shouldn't worry; Zoopla's valuations are absolutely meaningless.
    Originally posted by ValiantSon
    Repeated to a factor of infinity.
    • Fatbritabroad
    • By Fatbritabroad 9th Feb 18, 6:09 AM
    • 352 Posts
    • 191 Thanks
    Fatbritabroad
    Repeated to a factor of infinity.
    Originally posted by fun4everyone
    Weird they're fairly accurate round ours. 490000 valuation and official mortgage valuation with visit of 480000
    • badger09
    • By badger09 9th Feb 18, 4:38 PM
    • 5,944 Posts
    • 5,283 Thanks
    badger09
    I've always thought that Zoopla's valuations would be as useful as knowing my 'credit score is xxx' so thought I'd put it to the test. Got all the way through inputting details only to find I have to sign in with either Facebook (which I don't do) or Google.

    As I CBA, I'll continue to hold my opinion, which is based on a secret algorithm, just like Zoopla
    • Economic
    • By Economic 9th Feb 18, 4:40 PM
    • 249 Posts
    • 227 Thanks
    Economic
    I've always thought that Zoopla's valuations would be as useful as knowing my 'credit score is xxx' so thought I'd put it to the test. Got all the way through inputting details only to find I have to sign in with either Facebook (which I don't do) or Google.

    As I CBA, I'll continue to hold my opinion, which is based on a secret algorithm, just like Zoopla
    Originally posted by badger09
    You do not need to log in! You only need your postcode.
    https://www.zoopla.co.uk/house-prices/
    • badger09
    • By badger09 9th Feb 18, 5:39 PM
    • 5,944 Posts
    • 5,283 Thanks
    badger09
    You do not need to log in! You only need your postcode.
    https://www.zoopla.co.uk/house-prices/
    Originally posted by Economic
    Thanks Economic

    The one I had used was 'Get a Zoopla Estimate' here, and at the end of the process I was asked to log in.

    https://www.zoopla.co.uk/home-values/

    I've just used your link and it estimates my house to be worth £686k, which is interesting as it is on the market substantially below that, and we've had no offers.
    • fun4everyone
    • By fun4everyone 9th Feb 18, 5:52 PM
    • 987 Posts
    • 1,520 Thanks
    fun4everyone
    I've just used your link and it estimates my house to be worth £686k, which is interesting as it is on the market substantially below that, and we've had no offers.
    Originally posted by badger09
    Interesting info thanks badger. I already had my own pet theory that Zoopla panders to home owners and estate agents by deliberately inflating prices and your story is a piece of evidence in favour of that...

    Good luck with the sale.
    • BananaRepublic
    • By BananaRepublic 9th Feb 18, 6:25 PM
    • 1,191 Posts
    • 871 Thanks
    BananaRepublic
    Interesting info thanks badger. I already had my own pet theory that Zoopla panders to home owners and estate agents by deliberately inflating prices and your story is a piece of evidence in favour of that...

    Good luck with the sale.
    Originally posted by fun4everyone
    That may well be true, I honestly do not know. What I do know is that there is not much logic to house prices. Locally a house sold for a rediculously low price, about £100,000 below similar houses at the same period. And I can think of a house that went for £50,000 more than I thought reasonable. When I was looking for a house, I often guessed the actual sale price, but sometimes not. The local estate agents seem quite good at estimating prices. However a lot of local houses are knocked down so they can build an estate, and that will skew sale prices.
    • grey gym sock
    • By grey gym sock 9th Feb 18, 6:27 PM
    • 4,331 Posts
    • 3,861 Thanks
    grey gym sock
    i suspect zoopla is just not very accurate at valuing individual properties.

    looking at its valuations for 1 block of flats, where i happen to know that almost all flats are almost identical in size, zoopla's valuations for those very similar properties vary vastly, with their highest valuation more than 50% higher than their lowest.

    however, if you exclude the highest few and lowest few valuations, the remainder are in a fairly tight range. that range might be about the right valuation. so zoopla might be reasonably accurate in aggregate.
    • moneyfoolish
    • By moneyfoolish 9th Feb 18, 6:35 PM
    • 501 Posts
    • 295 Thanks
    moneyfoolish
    Not that my house will ever be sold until my wife and I both snuff it but Zoopla values it at £428,000 whereas Mouseprice values it at £460,000.
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