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  • FIRST POST
    • angela2011
    • By angela2011 26th Oct 17, 5:37 PM
    • 454Posts
    • 132Thanks
    angela2011
    bitcoin trading.
    • #1
    • 26th Oct 17, 5:37 PM
    bitcoin trading. 26th Oct 17 at 5:37 PM
    Thinking of investing some cash in to trade in bitcoins. Been looking at cryptoallday and was wondering if anyone had used them before.

    Any advice would be great...

    TIA...
Page 11
    • fwor
    • By fwor 12th Apr 18, 11:42 PM
    • 5,987 Posts
    • 4,044 Thanks
    fwor
    That is correct which makes the entire story quite dubious.
    Originally posted by hildosaver
    Let me just check - are you speaking from direct experience of trying to sell £20million+ worth of Bitcoin?

    I should add that I've no personal experience of the financial liquidity of any crypto currency, so I genuinely don't know if turning that much into some other currency is easy or not.
    • ivormonee
    • By ivormonee 13th Apr 18, 11:03 AM
    • 134 Posts
    • 93 Thanks
    ivormonee
    If the "IT guy" has 4,000 bitcoin then, at today's price of (let me just check, BRB...) $8,063.75 his holding is valued at (hang on, I need a spreadsheet, BRB...) $32,255,000.

    He must really love his job in IT.
    • hildosaver
    • By hildosaver 13th Apr 18, 1:01 PM
    • 294 Posts
    • 430 Thanks
    hildosaver
    Let me just check - are you speaking from direct experience of trying to sell £20million+ worth of Bitcoin?

    I should add that I've no personal experience of the financial liquidity of any crypto currency, so I genuinely don't know if turning that much into some other currency is easy or not.
    Originally posted by fwor

    I have personal experience of buying and selling bitcoin - anybody can register with an exchange and quickly sell off a number relatively easily. Would he be able to sell all 4000 in one go? Yes but he would likely crash the price for a while which would not be a smart move but it's perfectly possible to do and in fact if you follow GDAX you can see people selling hundreds of bitcoin every single day in a matter of minutes.
    Mortgage balance September 2012: £121,086 (First ever OP)
    Mortgage balance March 2018: £77,650
    • hildosaver
    • By hildosaver 13th Apr 18, 1:03 PM
    • 294 Posts
    • 430 Thanks
    hildosaver
    If the "IT guy" has 4,000 bitcoin then, at today's price of (let me just check, BRB...) $8,063.75 his holding is valued at (hang on, I need a spreadsheet, BRB...) $32,255,000.

    He must really love his job in IT.
    Originally posted by ivormonee

    Yeah it's utter nonsense. I suspect our IT guy may be telling porkies.
    Last edited by hildosaver; 13-04-2018 at 1:07 PM.
    Mortgage balance September 2012: £121,086 (First ever OP)
    Mortgage balance March 2018: £77,650
    • bowlhead99
    • By bowlhead99 13th Apr 18, 4:38 PM
    • 7,690 Posts
    • 14,063 Thanks
    bowlhead99
    If the "IT guy" has 4,000 bitcoin then, at today's price of (let me just check, BRB...) $8,063.75 his holding is valued at (hang on, I need a spreadsheet, BRB...) $32,255,000.

    He must really love his job in IT.
    Originally posted by ivormonee
    Oh he "has" 4000 bitcoins but is having a tough time trying to sell them as he can't remember which hard drive he saved them on, so he's keeping hold of his IT job to ensure he can influence the department not to send all the old computers to landfill until he finds them.
    • Malthusian
    • By Malthusian 13th Apr 18, 5:07 PM
    • 3,909 Posts
    • 6,106 Thanks
    Malthusian
    Oh he "has" 4000 bitcoins but is having a tough time trying to sell them as he can't remember which hard drive he saved them on, so he's keeping hold of his IT job to ensure he can influence the department not to send all the old computers to landfill until he finds them.
    Originally posted by bowlhead99
    The funny thing about Bitcoin is that would actually be quite a plausible explanation.

    No less plausible than people losing millions and billions because their wallet was on an old hard drive they threw away.
    • gash
    • By gash 13th Apr 18, 5:10 PM
    • 23 Posts
    • 2 Thanks
    gash
    I have put a little bit of cash into it yeah - only enough that if i lost it all tomorrow it wouldn't bother me.
    Originally posted by hildosaver

    I have done the same with the Grand National tomorrow............because I'm not really confident at all.
    • hildosaver
    • By hildosaver 13th Apr 18, 6:56 PM
    • 294 Posts
    • 430 Thanks
    hildosaver
    I have done the same with the Grand National tomorrow............because I'm not really confident at all.
    Originally posted by gash
    Yeah well apparently if I didn't stake my mortgage on it I'm not a real believer.
    Mortgage balance September 2012: £121,086 (First ever OP)
    Mortgage balance March 2018: £77,650
    • sabretoothtigger
    • By sabretoothtigger 15th Apr 18, 9:32 PM
    • 10,004 Posts
    • 6,600 Thanks
    sabretoothtigger
    The funny thing about Bitcoin is that would actually be quite a plausible explanation.

    No less plausible than people losing millions and billions because their wallet was on an old hard drive they threw away.
    Originally posted by Malthusian
    Yep its actually quite common. I have read more then a few times people find some BTC. Last one I read it was a few bitcoin, he had used it to pay some server bills a few years ago and then forgot all about it when no longer requiring that server be online.

    There is exponential potential in crypto but I dont think it occurs in one direction, lateral expansion of the economic prospects would be a positive more then just 1 price rising.
    I think BTC is still awkward but over the last year the basic protcol has advanced forward some, its progress is a little slow so maybe it will be leapfrogged by something. They still seem open to all avenues though
    So also people are far too negative on a price drop when no real economy operates purely on speculative gains. Its the market cap, population and interaction that matters way more. Also inversely dollar prospects
    Last edited by sabretoothtigger; 15-04-2018 at 9:34 PM.
    Tokyo residential prices have gone from 4x London in 1990 to ľ London in 2014
    Maybe this is one of those cases where you canít go home again,
    by Ben S. Bernanke, former Fed chairman
    • Malthusian
    • By Malthusian 16th Apr 18, 9:23 AM
    • 3,909 Posts
    • 6,106 Thanks
    Malthusian
    Yeah well apparently if I didn't stake my mortgage on it I'm not a real believer.
    Originally posted by hildosaver
    Pretty much. The idea that people will start buying and selling Bitcoin en masse, thus driving up its value, relies entirely on the idea that at some point people will wake up and believe in the value of Bitcoin in the same way they believe in pounds sterling and dollars.

    I am only willing to borrow money via a mortgage priced in pounds sterling because I believe that the value of pounds sterling will remain stable over the long term. This means I won't wake up tomorrow to find that pounds sterling have doubled in value compared to the value of the goods and services I produce, and therefore I will have to work twice as hard to pay it off.

    For Bitcoin to become usable as a currency, people need to be able to believe the same about Bitcoin: that they can hold money needed for future mortgage repayment in Bitcoin secure in the knowledge that it won't significantly fluctuate in value.

    If even the rampers aren't willing to do this then nobody else is going to.

    (Some of you may have spotted the obvious contradiction here: Bitcoin is supposed to rocket in value due to future mass adoption and yet future mass adoption requires it to stop rocketing in value. The explanation for this contradiction is look over there! a cute doge!)
    • hildosaver
    • By hildosaver 16th Apr 18, 12:18 PM
    • 294 Posts
    • 430 Thanks
    hildosaver
    I'm not convinced that Bitcoin will be a proper currency in the future (although there is every chance it will) however I am convinced that it will be seen as an alternative to the likes of gold.


    There is huge potential for the value of Bitcoin to grow much higher imo however it will eventually likely level out and become much more stable - this is the lower levels of an S curve imo and we are still probably 5 - 10 years away from it fulfilling it's potential in the way I believe it will.


    I take your point that at present it is purely a speculative investment and I'd agree with that.


    What I don't get - particularly on a 'money saving' forum - is that a few people appear to suggest that in order for me to truely believe in an investment I should sell everything I own to buy it and put my entire families wellbeing at risk as a result. Utter lunacy to suggest that and it is laughable that some doubt my stance on Bitcoin because I choose not to risk everything on it.


    I have invested what I can afford to and am comfortable trading to increase my position rather than putting more money into it. I think that is a sensible approach - even if I think it will be the chance of a lifetime to make serious cash my family comes first and I'm not going to put them at risk even if I'm convinced something is a great investment.
    Mortgage balance September 2012: £121,086 (First ever OP)
    Mortgage balance March 2018: £77,650
    • Reaper
    • By Reaper 16th Apr 18, 1:34 PM
    • 6,224 Posts
    • 4,477 Thanks
    Reaper
    What I don't get - particularly on a 'money saving' forum - is that a few people appear to suggest that in order for me to truely believe in an investment I should sell everything I own to buy it and put my entire families wellbeing at risk as a result. Utter lunacy to suggest that and it is laughable that some doubt my stance on Bitcoin because I choose not to risk everything on it.
    Originally posted by hildosaver
    You won't find any of the regulars here saying that. When something's growth goes exponential the board fills up with threads saying get in now at all costs. That happened recently with crypto and before that gold. Actually that is the time to be fearful.

    When they fall in value the threads dry up and the evangelists vanish.

    Today for the first time ever I bought some crypto (Ethereum in my case). If you look at the charts for the last year (I know that's dodgy in isolation!) you will see the price is basically at the sensible level it should have been if the madness at the beginning of the year had never happened.

    Why is the forum not full of people saying "buy now" when they were just before it fell? Because they are all bunkered down embarrassed to be nursing losses. But they will return next time the madness returns. Be sure to ignore them.
    • Malthusian
    • By Malthusian 16th Apr 18, 3:09 PM
    • 3,909 Posts
    • 6,106 Thanks
    Malthusian
    I'm not convinced that Bitcoin will be a proper currency in the future (although there is every chance it will) however I am convinced that it will be seen as an alternative to the likes of gold.
    Originally posted by hildosaver
    It wouldn't surprise me. But the fundamental problem is that you can't take some random cheap metal, paint it a shiny colour, call it NewGold or OneGold or MetalliCash and then flog it to the masses at an Initial Metal Offering. The shiny paint will flake off and it won't have the same industrial uses which means it's objectively inferior to actual gold.

    Whereas anyone can get an off-the-shelf mining algorithm and duplicate BitCoin. It doesn't matter that there are only 21 million possible Bitcoins, anyone can take the same very long numbers, or a different mining algorithm entirely, call it Bitcoin II or Bitcoiin (actually that one's taken) and dump another x million cryptocoins on the market. Unlike with gold vs altgold, there is no objective reason why Bitcoin should be worth more than them. Other than Bitcoin being the original, and people are fickle about putting value on such things.

    Despite there being 3,000 cryptocurrencies and counting, money is still flooding into cryptocurrency faster than dodgy scammers can invent new cryptocurrencies. But that won't last forever.

    What I don't get - particularly on a 'money saving' forum - is that a few people appear to suggest that in order for me to truely believe in an investment I should sell everything I own to buy it and put my entire families wellbeing at risk as a result.
    What risk? You just told us it's going to go up and up for the next 5-10 years, and then level out.

    This is the problem I was talking about. The vast majority of people currently think that Bitcoin is worth nothing. The idea that Bitcoin will grow further and then stabilise relies on the vast majority of people coming to think like you do. But if even you don't believe it, why should we?

    It's like being part of a cult that believes the world will end in 2020 and then finding that the founder has been salting away donations into a pension plan. "Of course I still believe that the world will end, I'm just putting some money away just in case I'm wrong. I mean, you'd've have to be some kind of moron to bet the house on it. Wait, where are you all going?" You're the Gerald Ratner of cryptocurrency.
    • grey gym sock
    • By grey gym sock 16th Apr 18, 4:20 PM
    • 4,270 Posts
    • 3,787 Thanks
    grey gym sock
    none of the practical, non-speculative uses of cryptocurrencies to date involve holding it any longer than the minimum time necessary (to complete your drug deal / launder your illegal money / extract your money from a country which oppressestaxes rich people). holding it is pure speculation. and i can't see how this would change. so greater adoption may not lead to higher prices. and virtually all cryptocurrencies are currently held by speculative hoarders. who will start to bail out if the price goes low enough. so vastly lower prices (99% falls from peak, and more) are entirely plausible.

    it is rather like gold. except if alchemy worked, in the sense that any bright 12-year-old with a chemistry set could invent a new shiny element.
    • JohnRo
    • By JohnRo 16th Apr 18, 4:59 PM
    • 2,593 Posts
    • 2,408 Thanks
    JohnRo
    Bitcoin, like other crypto is obviously worth something or they wouldn't be worth anything, they serve a purpose and function, the free market is deciding what that is and how much it's worth.

    No amount of incantation, wishful thinking or ignorant drivel by detractors is going to change that.

    BTC and every other clone is simply part of a growing cryto environment subject to free market interaction, innovation and price discovery, much to the growing irritation of the 'controllers', gatekeepers and those who just want it all to go away for some reason.

    It's taking place inclusively and transparently, which may result in a breakthrough at some point as the processes, utility and accessibility offered evolve or it may not. There are clearly internal and external hurdles to overcome.

    One thing for certain, it isn't going to need, demand or rely on tax payer bailouts to preserve the systems and lifestyles of those running it.
    'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB
    • ivormonee
    • By ivormonee 16th Apr 18, 5:46 PM
    • 134 Posts
    • 93 Thanks
    ivormonee
    It's impossible to arrive at a figure that one would define as "fair value" for bitcoin as there are such strongly opposing points of view. I have seen "experts" say that it is doomed to failure whilst other "experts" on the other side of the divide express their view that it will grow phenomenally. The two points of view are total polar opposites. I'd say neither is right. Or wrong. Why? Because I believe it is impossible to arrive at any conclusion simply because we cannot foresee what may or may not happen with the technology and generally in the "crypto space".

    I think there was media and public euphoria throughout 2017 which drove the price up from around $900 to $19,700, ie. approx. 2,000%. Since then it has more or less steadily fallen back by almost two thirds; currently at around $8,000. I am certainly no "expert", and I believe that nobody else is either, but in my humble opinion I think there are two ways it can go from here. It will continue to fall to a new 2018 low, possible to a one year low, thereby demonstrating that it was a bubble. Then, bitcoin will either go to close enough to zero and never recover or, it will start to rise again and reach new highs.

    How it will play out will depend on technological developments both with bitcoin itself and with everything else going on in the space, particularly with new cryptoassets. Bitcoin has severe limitations, both in terms of transactions that can be processed and fees. It also uses a lot of energy. If these factors are not permanently overcome, the latter scenario may play out. We could see the demise of bitcoin and the emergence of a new, "super" coin that will quickly fill the void; a coin that will offer close to zero fees, scalability of transactions and based on a mining system that uses a tiny fraction of the world's energy resources compared to bitcoin.

    We are nine years into the evolution of cryptocurrencies but I think we are still at a very early stage. I am not writing off cryptocurrencies; they may yet prove to be the future but we have to get past the inherent problems that are prevalent first.
    • hildosaver
    • By hildosaver 17th Apr 18, 9:17 AM
    • 294 Posts
    • 430 Thanks
    hildosaver
    What risk? You just told us it's going to go up and up for the next 5-10 years, and then level out.

    This is the problem I was talking about. The vast majority of people currently think that Bitcoin is worth nothing. The idea that Bitcoin will grow further and then stabilise relies on the vast majority of people coming to think like you do. But if even you don't believe it, why should we?

    It's like being part of a cult that believes the world will end in 2020 and then finding that the founder has been salting away donations into a pension plan. "Of course I still believe that the world will end, I'm just putting some money away just in case I'm wrong. I mean, you'd've have to be some kind of moron to bet the house on it. Wait, where are you all going?" You're the Gerald Ratner of cryptocurrency.
    Originally posted by Malthusian

    Nothing is without risk - I can believe it may go up exponentially over the coming years but I could be wrong. Sadly I do not have a crystal ball - all I can base my belief on is the experience I have had in crypto over the past 4 years - long before the mainstream were interested in it. I do believe in it but I guess I am risk averse. If I had more disposable income available perhaps I would feel differently.
    Mortgage balance September 2012: £121,086 (First ever OP)
    Mortgage balance March 2018: £77,650
    • Qubit
    • By Qubit 17th Apr 18, 12:39 PM
    • 45 Posts
    • 8 Thanks
    Qubit

    Whereas anyone can get an off-the-shelf mining algorithm and duplicate BitCoin. It doesn't matter that there are only 21 million possible Bitcoins, anyone can take the same very long numbers, or a different mining algorithm entirely, call it Bitcoin II or Bitcoiin (actually that one's taken) and dump another x million cryptocoins on the market. Unlike with gold vs altgold, there is no objective reason why Bitcoin should be worth more than them.
    Originally posted by Malthusian
    It would be very difficult to recreate Bitcoin and what makes it unique, sure you can copy it, but the code is only a small part of it. Some of it covered in the below:
    https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-is-different-than-other-cryptocurrencies-e16b17d48b94

    https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-is-different-e17b813fd947
    Last edited by Qubit; 17-04-2018 at 12:47 PM.
    • Malthusian
    • By Malthusian 17th Apr 18, 2:37 PM
    • 3,909 Posts
    • 6,106 Thanks
    Malthusian
    It would be very difficult to recreate Bitcoin and what makes it unique, sure you can copy it, but the code is only a small part of it. Some of it covered in the below:
    https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-is-different-than-other-cryptocurrencies-e16b17d48b94

    https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-is-different-e17b813fd947
    Originally posted by Qubit
    One of the reasons given is "network effect", which we can dismiss immediately as "network effect" is the reason MySpace is still so popular and always will be. I already mentioned this in my previous post when I referred to Bitcoin being the original.

    The other is a bald assertion that Bitcoin has "proven security", and there is little justification given as to why Bitcoin is more secure than any other altcoin. The author goes on to say that "The security of Bitcoin has been proven far more than its much younger counterparts", referring to the fact that Bitcoin hasn't been subject to a catastrophic hack or a defect in the mining algorithm that suddenly gives someone ten million coins. But this is just regurgitating the fact that Bitcoin is the original again. There is no reason any of its competing altcoins can't also last for a few years without anything catastrophic happening (other than speculators losing their money).
    • grey gym sock
    • By grey gym sock 17th Apr 18, 4:51 PM
    • 4,270 Posts
    • 3,787 Thanks
    grey gym sock
    the only reason to hold bitcoin (as opposed to: use it temporarily for a transaction) is speculation. new uses may be found for it (or for other cryptos, with added features), but i'm struggling to imagine any that would involve holding rather than transacting. as long as the only reason to hold a crypto is speculation, its value is determined not by the level of transactions, but by the speculative flows of money (some of which is quite blatant ramping, incidentally - just as bad as a dodgy AIM stock).

    the problem is not just that bitcoin's price is unstable, making it unsuitable as a "store of value". even if that were fixed, there'd still no reason to adopt bitcoin as a "store of value", when there is a huge network effect from using the same currency as everybody else in your country. and most people pay taxes, so the currency you need to pay your taxes in always has an advantage other other possible currencies.

    IMHO, even the idea that there'll be huge new uses for bitcoin (or other coins) seems to be over-stated. it's possible, but very often, the technology hyped as the next big thing isn't such a big deal, and it's something less obvious (or which just doesn't seem exciting enough) that becomes bigger. so far, the use cases for bitcoin all involve skirting (if not blatantly breaking) the law; can new uses outside that area be found? (i don't know.)
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