Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos · 2 December 2017 at 9:19AM

Rinoa wrote: »

I've always thought a trade deal would tie us to the EU indefinitely. We'd have to comply with their wishes in so many areas it would defeat the whole point of leaving.

I guess this confirms it.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/brussels-punishment-clause-uk-trade-deal-regulatory-standards-brexit

We did tell you that we'll need to follow eu regulations whether we help set them or not. This shouldn't be news to anyone.

vivatifosi · 2 December 2017 at 9:35AM

posh*spice wrote: »

I'm totally not understanding what's going on with RoI - surely the best thing for them would be to extend their veto to the end of the article 50 process and get on with trade talks?

What's with all the aggression? Are they trying to whip up anti British feelings for internsl political reasons?

I wonder if their position is partially based on the weakness of the UK government.

We know that Ireland wants to keep the border open.
We know that the DUP want to keep the border open.
We know that the UK want to keep the border open.
We know that the EU have suggested moving the border to the Irish Sea.
We know that the DUP has said that it will withdraw support from the government if it backs the sea border.
We also know the DUP does not endorse a straight to WTO brexit.

Therefore the Irish government knows that if they push at the DUPs hot buttons such as a sea border, and these are endorsed by the UK government, the DUP will pull its support. The government then falls. In all likelihood Labour would then get in, and Starmer would follow a plan for a more EFTA style exit, which both sides in Ireland would prefer and endorse.

Try to bypass and go straight to WTO? The DUP would again withdraw support and you are back to the scenario above.

gfplux · 2 December 2017 at 9:46AM

cogito wrote: »

It supports remain in the usual way that it takes the view the UK government hasn't a clue what its doing. It makes no attempt at balance which is exactly what we see all the time from remainers who still won't accept that we're leaving.

Sadly many on both sides of the argument think the UK Government don't have a clue.
You might still believe it's all a cunning plan to wrong foot the EU but you are more and more on your own with that theory.

mayonnaise · 2 December 2017 at 10:16AM

cogito wrote: »

Exactly. And this is where the contradiction lies. The PMI figures that others cite as evidence that the German, Austrian and Dutch economies are booming also indicate that they are overheating.

You couldn't be more wrong.
PMI figures are in no way an indication of an overheating economy. Rising rates of inflation and overproduction are signs of an overheating economy.
Neither of those are applicable. Their inflation rate is half ours and there are no sign of overproduction.

It's really not that complicated.

Rinoa · 2 December 2017 at 10:34AM

mayonnaise wrote: »

You couldn't be more wrong.
PMI figures are in no way an indication of an overheating economy.

German economy faces risk of overheating, experts warn

Economists call for reforms as conditions threaten to create property price bubble

The eurozone’s largest and most powerful economy is in danger of overheating, Germany’s influential Council of Economic Experts has warned, calling on the country’s next government to pursue reforms to ensure that the boom does not end in disaster.!

The council, composed of five top economists who present an annual report to the German parliament, warned that with growth above trend and interest rates low, risks to the country’s financial system would rise and conditions threatened to create a bubble in property prices.!

“We’re in this low interest environment that has been going on for a long time, and so there is good reason for these high prices [for property],” said Isabel Schnabel, a member of the council, said in Berlin on Wednesday. “But when the interest rates rise again these prices could go very quickly in the opposite direction.”

From your favourite news source.

https://www.ft.com/content/aae0e00c-c48e-11e7-a1d2-6786f39ef675

mayonnaise · 2 December 2017 at 10:34AM

Trade talks with Donald Trump 'a waste of time for UK'

“Given the hurdles that the UK has in negotiating with the EU ... I think it would be just a waste of time for you to use your scarce resources to try to have a trade deal with the United States,”

So that's early 2021 (2025 if he gets a 2nd term:eek:) before we can start meaningfully talking trade with the U.S.

What a mess.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-trade-talks-donald-trump-us-joseph-stiglitz-economist-nobel-prize-winner-a8087606.html

mayonnaise · 2 December 2017 at 10:42AM

Rinoa wrote: »

From your favourite news source.

https://www.ft.com/content/aae0e00c-c48e-11e7-a1d2-6786f39ef675

It's always good practice to read your linked-to articles before posting them, Rinoa.

conditions threaten to create property price bubble

conditions threatened to create a bubble in property prices.!

“We’re in this low interest environment that has been going on for a long time, and so there is good reason for these high prices [for property]

posh*spice · 2 December 2017 at 10:54AM

vivatifosi wrote: »

I wonder if their position is partially based on the weakness of the UK government.

We know that Ireland wants to keep the border open.
We know that the DUP want to keep the border open.
We know that the UK want to keep the border open.
We know that the EU have suggested moving the border to the Irish Sea.
We know that the DUP has said that it will withdraw support from the government if it backs the sea border.
We also know the DUP does not endorse a straight to WTO brexit.

Therefore the Irish government knows that if they push at the DUPs hot buttons such as a sea border, and these are endorsed by the UK government, the DUP will pull its support. The government then falls. In all likelihood Labour would then get in, and Starmer would follow a plan for a more EFTA style exit, which both sides in Ireland would prefer and endorse.

Try to bypass and go straight to WTO? The DUP would again withdraw support and you are back to the scenario above.

Nobody can stop us going to WTO - it's the default position- it's what happens when there is no deal. Ditto, Nobody can make the uk create a hard border.

If there is no movement to trade talks soon the UK AND the EU MUST prepare for no deal and the EU must prepare for getting no money from the UK.

posh*spice · 2 December 2017 at 11:03AM

Also, last few polls have shown a small Tory lead, so there's no guarantee that Labour will win next election even if it were right now, particularly if The Cons change leader. Voters still don't trust Labor on the economy- rightly so imho.

vivatifosi · 2 December 2017 at 11:05AM

posh*spice wrote: »

Nobody can stop us going to WTO - it's the default position- it's what happens when there is no deal. Ditto, Nobody can make the uk create a hard border.

We can't go to the WTO if we don't have a government. My comments were jotted down quickly with the facts known to me. The Irish government (and the UK government and EU) will be doing detailed scenario planning. They clearly believe as a result of such scenario planning that it is worth taking the position that they are taking.

My quick "back of a fag packet" version is an attempt at teasing out why they are Taking that position. There could be other/different reasons, but they clearly think it is worthwhile or they wouldn't be doing it.

Debate House Prices

Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Comments

Categories

Get our FREE Weekly email full of deals & guides - and it’s spam-free