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If we vote for Brexit what happens
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Interesting piece about volunteers based at Labour HQ.
They're given lists of Labour supporters around the country and phone them in an attempt to persuade them to vote remain - the responses are intriguing.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/13/brexit-supporters-leave-vote-right
Yes, Labour is in a bit of a panic now. This was in the Times yesterday... Someone has a bit naughtily copied and pasted the full text on reddit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/4nsi8d/fantastic_piece_from_the_times_sorcerer_dave/There is despair in the shadow cabinet at the Labour leader’s performance. Corbyn has just been holding rallies of “300-400 Trots who shout ‘Jez we can’” which “does not get on the news”, a senior Labour source said. “He is a doddery old man who doesn’t understand the importance of being on TV. He thinks you can win it through grassroots rallies. It has exposed how stupid Corbyn is. If this goes down it will be Labour’s fault.”
Seumas Milne, Corbyn’s spin doctor, has also angered MPs by changing a “unity” letter to remove a section saying that Labour is united behind the “remain” campaign. One shadow cabinet source added: “I do wonder whether Jeremy — or the people around him — are deliberately sabotaging the campaign.” Even in solid Labour areas insiders now believe “remain” is trailing. A source close to Labour’s “remain” campaign said: “The feedback from canvassing is awful. The Labour vote is dreadful, just dreadful.”
Brexiteers even appear to be ahead in Lewisham, southeast London, while in the northeast an estimated two-thirds of voters want to leave.
A shadow cabinet minister predicted that Britain would vote to leave the EU and Cameron would be forced to stand down, leading to a general election next May that Labour would “obviously lose badly”.
“We need to be telling people that when recessions hit, it is Labour areas that get hit first and get hit deepest. The only person making that case is George Osborne.” A senior Labour MP in the north said voters on his patch were “overwhelmingly against” remaining in the EU because Labour had dismissed the concerns of its traditional voters about immigration.
Another from the northeast said: “Labour supporters on my patch are so bad I’ve given up on them and I’m concentrating on Lib Dems and Tories instead.”
They seem also to have just woken up to the problem. Hence..
.. which actually might make things worse for Remain.Patrick Wintour â€@patrickwintour 7h Senior Labour figures backing Remain will argue Cameron EU migrant deal is insufficient & new direct controls on economic migration requiredIt all seems so stupid it makes me want to give up.
But why should I give up, when it all seems so stupid ?0 -
The odds have changed quite a bit in the last 24 hours, currently on betfair it is 59%/41% (1.69/2.42), I think a lot of people have real personal axes to grind (i.e. from legitimate concern over places at schools to outright racism) there is much motivation.
When it comes down to it though, perhaps the many undecided will play it safe and stick with the devil that they know, rather than risk the unknown. That is an 'ace up their sleeve' that the remain camp has, how telling it will be, remains to be seen, but I think that is probably why the odds are a bit different to the polls. I think the undecided are more likely to vote remain.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
chucknorris wrote: »The odds have changed quite a bit in the last 24 hours, currently on betfair it is 59%/41% (1.69/2.42), I think a lot of people have real personal axes to grind (i.e. from legitimate concern over places at schools to outright racism) there is much motivation.
When it comes down to it though, perhaps the many undecided will play it safe and stick with the devil that they know, rather than risk the unknown. That is an 'ace up their sleeve' that the remain camp has, how telling it will be, remains to be seen, but I think that is probably why the odds are a bit different to the polls. I think the undecided are more likely to vote remain.
Very interesting indeed, remain up to 1.66, highest I've ever seen it.
Leave down to 2.20, lowest I've seen it. I got on at 4.00, and 4.75, but I am kicking myself for not putting a hefty amount on!!!0 -
tommysaver wrote: »Very interesting indeed, remain up to 1.66, highest I've ever seen it.
Leave down to 2.20, lowest I've seen it. I got on at 4.00, and 4.75, but I am kicking myself for not putting a hefty amount on!!!
Would that have been be a hedge against stock market losses (if we exit), or just a punt?Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
chucknorris wrote: »The odds have changed quite a bit in the last 24 hours, currently on betfair it is 59%/41% (1.69/2.42), I think a lot of people have real personal axes to grind (i.e. from legitimate concern over places at schools to outright racism) there is much motivation.
When it comes down to it though, perhaps the many undecided will play it safe and stick with the devil that they know, rather than risk the unknown. That is an 'ace up their sleeve' that the remain camp has, how telling it will be, remains to be seen, but I think that is probably why the odds are a bit different to the polls. I think the undecided are more likely to vote remain.
The leave vote has hardened and no matter what figures get banded about now. The odds probably do reflect that many undecided voters will opt for the status quo when it comes to the day. Though how many undecided voters will vote, if they choose to sit on their hands then we are more likely to have a Leave win.
In the two national ones we've had the EC Referendum got a 65% turnout, the AV referendum got 42%, though there was a high amount of apathy for the AV vote. If you take elections the EU parliament elections are low in the UK, always below 40% turnout, and UK general elections, post 1945, have always been above 70%turnout until 2001 with turnout below 60%. Since then they've been sub 70%, showing increasing voter apathy.
I don't feel the campaign on either side has reengaged voters to want to vote, so probably a turnout of 55% which would be a Leave outcome.0 -
mayonnaise wrote: »They will care when it hits them in the pocket.
Mass immigration has already hit them in the pocket especially sole traders.
When the four new poor nations join shortly it will mean more sucking away of our taxes by those nations and more mass immigration in return, what a great future.
Then there's the looming Italian Bank crisis which will make Greece look like a picnic0 -
The leave vote has hardened and no matter what figures get banded about now. The odds probably do reflect that many undecided voters will opt for the status quo when it comes to the day. Though how many undecided voters will vote, if they choose to sit on their hands then we are more likely to have a Leave win.
In the two national ones we've had the EC Referendum got a 65% turnout, the AV referendum got 42%, though there was a high amount of apathy for the AV vote. If you take elections the EU parliament elections are low in the UK, always below 40% turnout, and UK general elections, post 1945, have always been above 70%turnout until 2001 with turnout below 60%. Since then they've been sub 70%, showing increasing voter apathy.
I don't feel the campaign on either side has reengaged voters to want to vote, so probably a turnout of 55% which would be a Leave outcome.
I believe that the odds do reflect currently undecided voters voting mainly for the remain camp, which is why remain is currently odds on, despite exit seemingly having a slight edge in the polls (level at worst). I suspect that the turnout will be higher than 55%, you can get 39/1 on betfair for 55% and lower, 65.01-70% is the favourite, followed by 70.01 to 75%.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
My local area just had a poll on facebook, again, re-inforcing everything I am seeing.
Out, 297 votes.
In, 153 votes
Undecided, 41 votes
Not voting, 3 votes.
Incredible. Interesting couple of weeks ahead!0 -
chucknorris wrote: »The odds have changed quite a bit in the last 24 hours, currently on betfair it is 59%/41% (1.69/2.42), I think a lot of people have real personal axes to grind (i.e. from legitimate concern over places at schools to outright racism) there is much motivation.
When it comes down to it though, perhaps the many undecided will play it safe and stick with the devil that they know, rather than risk the unknown. That is an 'ace up their sleeve' that the remain camp has, how telling it will be, remains to be seen, but I think that is probably why the odds are a bit different to the polls. I think the undecided are more likely to vote remain.
I think the polls are over stating the vote for leave and this is due to those that know they will be polled making a good effort to hear both sides of the argument.
At a BBQ were people who took no real interest and have not watched any of the debates and they were for remain for no more reason than they feared change
None of them knew of the risks of remain such as the poor nations about to join0 -
I had a firm call me up yesterday (the name escapes me now) who were trying to sell me an investment with a 5% monthly return even in the event of Brexit and the guy on the other end of the phone was actively trying to convince me to vote to leave...0
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