UK allocation

talexuser · 25 March 2019 at 7:27PM

Various articles have pointed out how UK valuations are now at a historic low since international investors have gone elsewhere since the referendum (but not just because of the referendum). Do you think this is an opportunity to be somewhat contrarian and increase UK allocation because a value bounce has to occur sometime?

AnotherJoe · 25 March 2019 at 7:42PM

They aren't at a historic low.

greenglide · 25 March 2019 at 7:43PM

because a value bounce has to occur sometime?

But it may fall further and the "bounce" may be to a level that is still less that the current valuation?

Nobody knows!

PuzzledDave · 25 March 2019 at 7:50PM

talexuser wrote: »

Various articles have pointed out how UK valuations are now at a historic low since international investors have gone elsewhere since the referendum (but not just because of the referendum). Do you think this is an opportunity to be somewhat contrarian and increase UK allocation because a value bounce has to occur sometime?

Now I know what you are thinking, did the UK valuations fall 50% or 60% ? Well, to tell you the truth in all the Brexit excitement I have kinda lost track myself. So I guess you have to ask yourself one question... "Do I feel lucky ?"

Alexland · 25 March 2019 at 8:00PM

talexuser wrote: »

Do you think this is an opportunity to be somewhat contrarian and increase UK allocation because a value bounce has to occur sometime?

Maybe, maybe not, as always the future is unclear so take the middle ground and stick to your plan.

Alex

ColdIron · 25 March 2019 at 8:02PM

FTSE 100 historic or all time low was probably 1,000 when it started in 1984. The all time closing high of 7,877 was recorded within the last year

coastline · 25 March 2019 at 8:36PM

First link shows the FTSE P/E all the way back to the 1960's. I'm not sure if its the All Share or a representation for pre 1984. What it does show is it probably hasn't been much cheaper apart from a crash.

https://secure.i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03079/PF-ftse-pe_3079506a.jpg

https://secure.i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03079/PF-ftse-cape_3079144a.jpg

Latest..

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-kingdom/pe-ratio

The UK began to underperform around 2015 onwards. There's been a lot of unwinding since the heady days of the dotcom boom where the big guns in the index traded at P/E values in the 20-30's which was unheard of.
Recently the US has lead the way as can be seen from the link below and if the chart is set at 10 years, 5, 3, etc you can see a different picture.

https://www2.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx?typeCode=NM990100,NUKX,NASX,NAWXUSAS

What happens next who knows ? I've just had a look at this but its only a view of many out there. Keep buying the dips I say.

https://bullmarkets.co/stock-market-crash-edition/

talexuser · 25 March 2019 at 9:09PM

The P/E values are the basis of the valuations.

UK allocation

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