Next recession, trade wars, up to 50% portfolio losses
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Reading this thread with interest.
This is the FTSE100 for the last 20 years
Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.
For me (with some cash in a SIPP and a 5 year timescale) now is not the time to be buying. The bull market has gone on too long for this cycle already and it appears to be turning. It might well only be another small drop like 2015 and it will rise further, but for me the risk of falls looks higher than the risk of gains so I am keeping my cash.
My view is perhaps swayed by the fact I struck lucky and sold my investments in order to transfer my pension to another provider and I by sheer luck did so very close to the top. Had I still been invested it would now be worth less than the cash that is sitting there. So I don't want to do anything to risk losing the previous gains I have locked in.
The domination of the FTSE 100 in 'lay' UK investment thinking, and the overlooking of the huge effect of compounding dividends when 'examining' its performance has a lot to answer for, in my view.
It is a discouragement to potential investors and sits upon the first page of the first chapter of their discovery process.
It's like assessing the usefulness of savings accounts by picking a poorly performing one and then disregarding any interest payments it generates anyway.I am one of the Dogs of the Index.0 -
RT's job, and the reason that the Russian government fund it so heavily, is to undermine the West.
I'm surprised that you don't understand that.
The scandal at RBS has been rumbling on in the media for years - it hasn't just begun to be reported "since early this year". For example the unit within RBS which was supposed to be helping businesses that were in temporary financial trouble but which forced companies which were otherwise sound but had cashflow problems into bankruptcy because it made more money for RBS was highlighted by financial journalists and by the BBC on Moneybox on Radio 4 while it was happening.
RT is adding nothing to the investigation of this story, just using it as propaganda. Anyone who is oblivious to that clearly doesn't understand very much at all.
Honestly, the same applies to views at ten.. there's no lack of understanding on my part. I'm not defending RT, I know what it's doing, that doesn't make it worthless and there's value in having slanted views and opinions challenged.
Better than just filtering out everything that doesn't agree with a desired world view, if interested in truth and justice.
Anyway this particular story is in the process of unfolding, with or without RT, so that's just a distraction.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
Matthew2018 wrote: »Yes I was concerned.
I have, in the last few days, moved out of investments completely and moved into cash. When I have time to catch my breath I will also move some cash into precious metals.
I may be wrong and the coming crash will not be for a few years, if ever. After all, unlike markets before, this already long, bull run could just keep on going. If I am wrong I will have missed out on any future increases in the market.
However, if I am right then my cash giving me only a little more than 1% interest easily beats a downturn of 5% in the markets.
If you think that there will be a serious downturn in the markets, why would you just stand there and watch your personal investments go the same way.
what precious metals and in what form? paper or physical?Aim to retire by 45.0 -
ANGLICANPAT wrote: »This has been doing the rounds on FB, and worries me some - I was already aware about the problems with RBS but hadnt realized the extent of the problem till I saw this. Looks quite bad , and I wondered if it would affect investments much - but perhaps storm in a T cup?Surprised Teresa May hasnt answered the letter sent to her.
https://www.rt.com/shows/renegade-inc/422961-scotland-bank-economic-taxpayer/
I don't think Neil Mitchell is a particularly reliable source of unbiased information about RBS.
https://www.ft.com/content/ecc6d949-1832-389f-b04d-00333bdb890f0 -
I don't think Neil Mitchell is a particularly reliable source of unbiased information about RBS.
https://www.ft.com/content/ecc6d949-1832-389f-b04d-00333bdb890f
Thats a year old - the position appears to have moved on considerably . Time will tell I suppose, how serious or not it has become.0 -
Honestly, the same applies to views at ten..
The News at Ten is run by public sector officials in a democracy who have a remit to be independent of the state, and to take a balanced view. We all know their idea of what is a balanced view is a little skewed. But it still makes them very different from an outfit whose objective is to proclaim the glory of the Putin regime, whose only concern is to preserve the wealth he and his cronies stole from the Russian people during the chaos of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
If I read in Russia Today that the sky was blue I'd want verification from an independent source.
The idea that there is a scandal afoot in RBS' corporate restructuring department is true. Everyone has known that for years (everyone who took an interest). The idea that this is something we should specifically be concerned about right now comes from the Kremlin, and should be viewed as b******s until proven otherwise.0 -
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dividendhero wrote: »I don't see it that way, the wealth of Russia's elite is held in the West - they don't want to foul their own nest
They send their money west but it all comes from their oil at home. Trying to shape the governments of the West is what they're all about. The money is safe.0 -
Democracy?Malthusian wrote: »The News at Ten is run by public sector officials in a democracy
When did we elect the Head of State and Hangers On, or the absurdly over-populated House of Lords? (bigger than the whole of the EU Parliament for 27 countries)
- both of which have power of veto over the 'democratically elected' who are held up by bribes to buy DUP votes.
An unbiased media would give at least equal coverage to the campaign for an elected Head of State, as it gives to Royal Births and Weddings etc.“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair0 -
When did the head of state last exercise a power of veto over anything?Glen_Clark wrote: »Democracy?
When did we elect the Head of State and Hangers On, or the absurdly over-populated House of Lords? (bigger than the whole of the EU Parliament for 27 countries)
- both of which have power of veto over the 'democratically elected' who are held up by bribes to buy DUP votes.
An unbiased media would give at least equal coverage to the campaign for an elected Head of State, as it gives to Royal Births and Weddings etc.0
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