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  • FIRST POST
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 21st Jul 13, 5:35 PM
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    zeupater
    Discussion ... ASHP(Air/Air) with Solar pv ....
    • #1
    • 21st Jul 13, 5:35 PM
    Discussion ... ASHP(Air/Air) with Solar pv .... 21st Jul 13 at 5:35 PM
    Hi All

    The combination of a small ASHP(Air/Air) with Solar pv seems to be a valid pairing of complementary technologies which has been raised a number of times on this forum.

    The idea of this thread is to encourage discussion of this combination in order to validate what an appropriate equipment specification would look like in order to maximise performance benefits in a typical domestic environment.

    Obviously, it is well understood that a typical domestic-scale solar pv system will not generate sufficient energy to provide winter heating, but should be considered as being a 'shoulder' months supplementary heat source for well insulated properties ... it is therefore best to concentrate on Spring & Autumn as being the target periods for heat provision, with an additional benefit of provision of cooling in heat-wave conditions such as we've been experiencing recently.

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
Page 18
    • mmmmikey
    • By mmmmikey 12th Oct 19, 10:24 AM
    • 447 Posts
    • 731 Thanks
    mmmmikey
    Thanks both, so putting this together it sounds like (whether you think this is good or not) you both think it's unlikely that the first 8 nuclear power stations will be kept open when the end of their planned life in 4 or 5 years time.


    Assuming this nuclear energy is replaced with wind, then it would seem reasonable to expect that on windy nights energy will be cheaper than it is now, but on still nights it will be more expensive because we'll have to fire up some gas generators. So it seems quite possible things will average out at about the same, so my theory from a few posts back may well hold out, albeit for the wrong reasons.


    All this might sound a bit obscure, but predicting future energy prices is critical to assessing the impact of any personal investment decisions in things like solar panels, batteries and heating systems.
    • JKenH
    • By JKenH 12th Oct 19, 11:54 AM
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    JKenH
    A very important issue here is that extensions are not 'free'. They require huge additional investment each time, to ensure that the reactors are safe for the extended period. What we are seeing, all over the World, are generators not seeking extensions, or even shutting reactors early, simply because they are not economical.

    Also, the longer these reactors are run, the harder the eventual clean up will be, incurring even more cost, and the UK fleet is already running at a lower level in order to provide for previous extensions.

    But here's the best bit, nuclear is expensive, very expensive, despite over 60yrs of significant support in the UK. But RE is already far, far cheaper than nuclear, despite only ~10yrs of significant support in the UK, and what is the result, nuclear generation has been falling slowly and is around 20% now, whilst in just 10yrs, RE generation has risen from approx 5% to 35%, and there is a significant amount of 'cheap' off-shore wind already contracted, but not yet generating (commissioning dates 2022/23/24/25).

    In short, we can do more, faster, and cheaper with RE.

    Regarding night rates, since wind generation, especially off-shore, is a big night generator, and winter biased, then the impact on cheaper rates is pretty hard to predict.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981

    If this projection is correct and a higher proportion of the grid is made up of wind then prices will swing wildly. That sounds like an argument for installing a substantial domestic battery with several days capacity to buy in when cheap and use when expensive. Ideally we need sophisticated switching systems that are linked to live pricing to optimise charge and discharge times. How far away is that likely to be?
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, Nissan Leaf (plus some ICEs )
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 12th Oct 19, 11:57 AM
    • 4,016 Posts
    • 2,977 Thanks
    GreatApe
    A very important issue here is that extensions are not 'free'. They require huge additional investment each time, to ensure that the reactors are safe for the extended period. What we are seeing, all over the World, are generators not seeking extensions, or even shutting reactors early, simply because they are not economical.

    Also, the longer these reactors are run, the harder the eventual clean up will be, incurring even more cost, and the UK fleet is already running at a lower level in order to provide for previous extensions.

    But here's the best bit, nuclear is expensive, very expensive, despite over 60yrs of significant support in the UK. But RE is already far, far cheaper than nuclear, despite only ~10yrs of significant support in the UK, and what is the result, nuclear generation has been falling slowly and is around 20% now, whilst in just 10yrs, RE generation has risen from approx 5% to 35%, and there is a significant amount of 'cheap' off-shore wind already contracted, but not yet generating (commissioning dates 2022/23/24/25).

    In short, we can do more, faster, and cheaper with RE.

    Regarding night rates, since wind generation, especially off-shore, is a big night generator, and winter biased, then the impact on cheaper rates is pretty hard to predict.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981

    You're talking nonsense

    The biggest nuclear fleet is the USA fleet and that is the fleet which has been extended the most
    Something like 90% of their reactors have applied for and received 20 year life extensions
    A few have applied for another 20 years (so will operate for 80 years) and the vast majority are expected to get a second round of extensions. If they decide to close down it will be because of very cheap shale gas run through very efficient CCGTs not because of wind or solar.

    And their average cost is $33/MWh or £26/MWh which is half the cost of your offshore wind power before even considering the backup and grid upgrades needs of wind Vs just keeping nuclear going

    The UK nukes are very different and neither of us know the costs
    Only what's true is I'm sure you'd have said the same BS just before the last round of significant life extensions for UK nukes. You were wrong then and you are wrong now. The truth is you have no idea what life extension costs will be and the truth is that costs are not the only part of the equation the other side is revenue. If wholesale prices average £30 the costs may be too high if wholesale prices average £50 the costs may be perfectly find in both cases the costs are the same but with cheap electricity the costs aren't worthwhile. And wholesale prices get crushed thanks to subsidised wind power and solar.

    This should be resolved by offering existing nuclear a CFD to allow for life extension
    But as said earlier in my post this may not be necessary since neither of us know EDFs costs to maintain and upgrade to extend lives.

    As for wind power
    The UK plans to add about 20GW in the 2020s This will generate about 70TWh but some of it will have to be curtailed (even today in 2019 some wind power is curtailed)
    During the same decade the UK will lose some 60TWh of nuclear output
    So all the investment in offshore wind power will just about cancel out the lost old nuclear output
    We will be standing still for 2020-2030 thanks to nuclear fear mongers

    The UK grid will go more green thanks mostly to additional bulk french nuclear imports and bulk Norway hydropower imports from the new interconntors under construction. Assuming no mass electrification of transportation or heating
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 12th Oct 19, 12:08 PM
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    • 2,977 Thanks
    GreatApe
    If this projection is correct and a higher proportion of the grid is made up of wind then prices will swing wildly. That sounds like an argument for installing a substantial domestic battery with several days capacity to buy in when cheap and use when expensive. Ideally we need sophisticated switching systems that are linked to live pricing to optimise charge and discharge times. How far away is that likely to be?
    Originally posted by JKenH

    Batteries are too expensive and have an associated pollution level both CO2 and other pollution in their manufacture. Plus they are just far far too expensive and their return efficiency is below 85%

    What makes more sense is to give wind farms a CFD based on capacity factor
    The subsidy should force up the CF to 60% or higher
    This can be achieved by using bigger towers and longer blades
    60% CF wind farm is much more useful and much easier to integrate into the grid than a 40% wind farm or a 11% solar farm

    Links to Norway will help
    One is under construction one was about to start but the Norwegians are having cold feet
    If those two get built it's 2.8 GW acting like a long term battery
    They will buy when we have cheap electricity and sell when we don't
    It's not a full solution by any means but it helps

    Likewise all the other interconntors to France Germany Netherlands Belgium etc will help too
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 12th Oct 19, 7:00 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Thanks both, so putting this together it sounds like (whether you think this is good or not) you both think it's unlikely that the first 8 nuclear power stations will be kept open when the end of their planned life in 4 or 5 years time.


    Assuming this nuclear energy is replaced with wind, then it would seem reasonable to expect that on windy nights energy will be cheaper than it is now, but on still nights it will be more expensive because we'll have to fire up some gas generators. So it seems quite possible things will average out at about the same, so my theory from a few posts back may well hold out, albeit for the wrong reasons.


    All this might sound a bit obscure, but predicting future energy prices is critical to assessing the impact of any personal investment decisions in things like solar panels, batteries and heating systems.
    Originally posted by mmmmikey
    I think a combination of 'not a clue' and 'probably little change' are OK, if somewhat bemusing.

    We really don't know, but for domestic customers tariffs are based around expected average cost of leccy, plus costs, plus profits, so putting aside specialist tariffs, we don't really need to worry about spot prices as they have little to no impact on us in real time.

    Sorry if I've posted this for you before, or you've seen me post it elsewhere, but I can't stress the importance of these numbers enough - the NAO has massively reduced its estimates for future wholesale prices, down from around a peak of £85/MWh (2030), to about £70/MWh in 2027, down again to about £55/MWh in the mid 2020's.

    Please look at these two pages, and the three estimates, again, the scale of change, and the speed of the revision is staggering, and even the latest report pre-dates the shocking (ly low) off-shore wind auction prices in 2017, and of course the ludicrously low recent prices*:

    Page 40

    Page 40


    * perhaps worth an additional bit of waffle in itself, as the government in 2012 estimated 2030 off-shore wind would cost £85-£109/MWh.

    Th̲i̲s̲ i̲s̲ t̲h̲e̲ ̲G̲o̲v̲'̲t pr̲e̲d̲i̲c̲t̲i̲o̲n̲ f̲o̲r̲ 2̲0̲3̲0̲.̲ ̲(2012 pricing)
    Onshore wind to be in the range £45-72/MWh
    Offshore wind will be in the range £85-109/MWh
    Nuclear, at £69-99/MWh.
    For solar they predict £59-73/MW
    But in 2017, for 2022/23 delivery we saw £57.50/MWh, and in 2019 for 2024/25 delivery we saw £40-£42/MWh. Again, all 2012 baseline, but a half to one third the government's old prediction, and for delivery 5+yrs earlier.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • JKenH
    • By JKenH 12th Oct 19, 7:20 PM
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    JKenH
    We really don't know, but for domestic customers tariffs are based around expected average cost of leccy, plus costs, plus profits, so putting aside specialist tariffs, we don't really need to worry about spot prices as they have little to no impact on us in real time.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    But we were discussing TOU charges in the context of time shifting with a battery. Are you saying these won’t move in line with spot prices or are these the specialist tariffs you refer to, in which case we do need to worry about spot prices.

    Edit: perhaps worry is not the right word. Wildly fluctuating prices present both challenges and opportunities.
    Last edited by JKenH; 12-10-2019 at 7:27 PM. Reason: Edit added
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, Nissan Leaf (plus some ICEs )
    • 1961Nick
    • By 1961Nick 12th Oct 19, 9:59 PM
    • 1,114 Posts
    • 3,673 Thanks
    1961Nick
    But we were discussing TOU charges in the context of time shifting with a battery. Are you saying these won’t move in line with spot prices or are these the specialist tariffs you refer to, in which case we do need to worry about spot prices.

    Edit: perhaps worry is not the right word. Wildly fluctuating prices present both challenges and opportunities.
    Originally posted by JKenH
    "Wildly fluctuating" is probably not very helpful if you're trying to manage consumption without turning it into a full time job. ... and risking a nervous breakdown in the process!

    Predictably fluctuating is manageable with limited intervention.

    For me, the Octopus Go TOU tariff is a lot more attractive than Octopus Agile. Knowing exactly when I have 4 hours of 5p/kWh electricity means I can program the batteries to charge, set delay timers on the DW, WM & TD, use the ASHP to maintain the background temperature, and use the last hour for underfloor heating ... should still be plenty of latent heat when I get up at 5.30.

    Assuming I do get a TM3 next year, I'll have imported 50 kWh by the time I get up in the morning!
    4kWp (black/black) - Sofar Inverter - SSE(141°) - 30° pitch - North Lincs
    Installed June 2013 - PVGIS = 3400

    Sofar ME3000SP Inverter & 5 x Pylontech US2000B Plus Batteries - 12kWh
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 13th Oct 19, 8:48 AM
    • 9,637 Posts
    • 14,524 Thanks
    Martyn1981
    But we were discussing TOU charges in the context of time shifting with a battery. Are you saying these won’t move in line with spot prices or are these the specialist tariffs you refer to, in which case we do need to worry about spot prices.

    Edit: perhaps worry is not the right word. Wildly fluctuating prices present both challenges and opportunities.
    Originally posted by JKenH
    If you think about it logically, it will become self regulating, we are back to basic supply and demand economics.

    Start out at the extremes, the best example of that is probably Australia and their summer peak demands and prices. A few years ago we saw the domestic battery owners joining large consortiums who would sell their leccy at peak times, one example was spot prices hitting A$1,400/MWh, and domestic households getting paid A$1/kWh (A$1,000/MWh).

    That would 'prove' the issue of "wildly fluctuating prices", and perhaps TOU tariffs, though this example is about selling, not buying leccy.

    But, what does economics suggest will happen next? The profitability of this source of high priced sale will encourage more domestic batts, and commercial batts, and even supply side batts (like the big Tesla battery).

    What's the result of more of these batts, they will erode the 'wildly' away and flatten the extreme curves out a bit.

    But domestic batts, and even the first few supply side batts will pale into insignificance v's the rollout of BEV's and smart charging, with cars that will have anything from 3 or 4, to 20x the domestic batts capacity.

    I fully accept that what I'm suggesting is just speculation, but it is, I believe, a pretty obvious trajectory, and that's before we reach a point where consistently low enough prices and volumes start to make longer term storage (such as hydrogen, bio-gas, LAES etc) viable, which will effectively create a minimum price (before they step in to buy) and a maximum price (before they step in to sell).

    It's all fascinating and fun, but I'd suggest self limiting over the very time period that it starts to happen, as the demand and supply technology already exists.

    Additional point, something I may not have repeated for some time - both the wind and PV supply sites have made it absolutely clear, that as and when storage becomes economically viable for them, they will roll it out, as they already have the available space on site, and there is no retro-action cost penalty for them.


    Edit - Just realised my post is a right downer on the fun part of all this. So perhaps this is something to enjoy quickly, just in case I'm right over the medium to longer term!
    Last edited by Martyn1981; 13-10-2019 at 8:52 AM. Reason: Added an edit
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • JKenH
    • By JKenH 13th Oct 19, 9:26 AM
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    • 3,222 Thanks
    JKenH
    Mart, I don’t disagree with any of what you say. I am just trying to get a handle on what sort of peaks and troughs we might see on a TOU tariff like Octopus Agile over the next ten years to calculate whether to purchase a battery myself. I was expecting that when wind takes up a higher proportion of generation there will be times when electricity is very cheap and when it is very expensive before it settles down, if and when the big batteries arrive.

    Even if domestic battery prices remain static they will make more financial sense both for home consumption and trading if TOU prices become more volatile.
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, Nissan Leaf (plus some ICEs )
    • 1961Nick
    • By 1961Nick 13th Oct 19, 10:00 AM
    • 1,114 Posts
    • 3,673 Thanks
    1961Nick
    Mart, I don’t disagree with any of what you say. I am just trying to get a handle on what sort of peaks and troughs we might see on a TOU tariff like Octopus Agile over the next ten years to calculate whether to purchase a battery myself. I was expecting that when wind takes up a higher proportion of generation there will be times when electricity is very cheap and when it is very expensive before it settles down, if and when the big batteries arrive.

    Even if domestic battery prices remain static they will make more financial sense both for home consumption and trading if TOU prices become more volatile.
    Originally posted by JKenH
    There's a strong possibility that the arrival of Big Batteries could be delayed by the roll out of EVs & to some extent domestic batteries. Tesla's output is already battery limited & the problem is forecast to get worse across the industry in the short term. This would suggest that battery prices may plateau ... or even rise until supply catches up.

    Tesla's recent interest in buying key elements of the battery supply chain indicates that they feel the need to control this aspect to ensure continued growth.
    4kWp (black/black) - Sofar Inverter - SSE(141°) - 30° pitch - North Lincs
    Installed June 2013 - PVGIS = 3400

    Sofar ME3000SP Inverter & 5 x Pylontech US2000B Plus Batteries - 12kWh
    • mmmmikey
    • By mmmmikey 13th Oct 19, 11:14 AM
    • 447 Posts
    • 731 Thanks
    mmmmikey
    There's a strong possibility that the arrival of Big Batteries could be delayed by the roll out of EVs & to some extent domestic batteries. Tesla's output is already battery limited & the problem is forecast to get worse across the industry in the short term. This would suggest that battery prices may plateau ... or even rise until supply catches up.

    Tesla's recent interest in buying key elements of the battery supply chain indicates that they feel the need to control this aspect to ensure continued growth.
    Originally posted by 1961Nick

    Just wondering - what are batteries made of and when does it run out........?
    • 1961Nick
    • By 1961Nick 13th Oct 19, 11:22 AM
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    • 3,673 Thanks
    1961Nick
    Just wondering - what are batteries made of and when does it run out........?
    Originally posted by mmmmikey
    Lithium, nickel, copper & cobalt. Nickel & cobalt seem to to the primary concern at the moment. More than half of the cobalt comes from the DRC which is clearly not the most stable part of the world.
    4kWp (black/black) - Sofar Inverter - SSE(141°) - 30° pitch - North Lincs
    Installed June 2013 - PVGIS = 3400

    Sofar ME3000SP Inverter & 5 x Pylontech US2000B Plus Batteries - 12kWh
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 13th Oct 19, 3:26 PM
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    • 14,524 Thanks
    Martyn1981
    Even if domestic battery prices remain static they will make more financial sense both for home consumption and trading if TOU prices become more volatile.
    Originally posted by JKenH
    Yep, they will make much more sense, but ...... if one large batt is then installed in your area by a smart investor, an energy supplier, or the DNO, and "all the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • joefizz
    • By joefizz 13th Oct 19, 3:42 PM
    • 408 Posts
    • 365 Thanks
    joefizz
    Yep, they will make much more sense, but ...... if one large batt is then installed in your area by a smart investor, an energy supplier, or the DNO, and "all the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."
    Originally posted by Martyn1981

    All of the above.
    I mentioned, over on the battery thread, going to an electricity generators conference last year where distributed storage was all the talk and presentations on trials and small scale implementations.
    There was also a few presentations on brexit and network security and I came home and ordered the battery but thats a side issue!


    TOU was a bit hazy as theres no requirement for smart meters here in NI but in side discussions it did seem that eventually that would be the way forward, if billing was capable (its the billing bit that slows everything down - ever notice why some telcos offer free calls over long weekends when they are upgrading their systems - because they cant do that and log calls at the same time). If billing does become capable then its down to how granular they want to go. Its definitely bye bye to E7 in the long run, when you will be billed according to what it actual costs to produce at that particular time. There will probably also be a carbon tax tie in as well which will be over and above the TOU tariff (or just display as a surcharge).


    Will make it interesting if they have to kick in gas/coal (yes coal hasnt been ruled out in the future if nuclear needs to ramp down suddenly - a la germany) overnight whilst all those EVs are charging, or ashps running during winter with no wind....
    ...it might also be regional, so overall grid may not count in billing but rather your local mix...
    The EVs TOU will be a given for anyone who installs a connected fast charger (why one of my mates with an EV put in a 3kw dumb charger). Easier to bill that directly and separately. The fuel tax extras will have to come from somewhere, although may just be different VAT for electricity used as car fuel to home use.



    As I mentioned over on the battery thread, its no coincidence the pylontechs come in a standard equipment rack form factor.... ...easy to co-locate at your local substation.
    • JKenH
    • By JKenH 17th Nov 19, 7:28 PM
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    • 3,222 Thanks
    JKenH
    The wife has been away helping with grandchildren Monday to Friday so I managed without any central heating and a 20/21C room temperature. Result was 11.1kwh used over 27.7 hours equals exactly 400 watts/hour. I was quite surprised at that but with less usage per day it spends a greater proportion of its time getting up to temperature and less time at a steady temp. Now the wife is back we have to have the oil C/H on for 1 hour in the morning on to dry towels etc. I also have had the kitchen ASHP at the other end of the house on for half an hour at breakfast and the occasional half hour at tea time. I only have one power meter so can’t monitor usage on both.

    I can’t do it all on solar but at least I have the satisfaction this time of year of using all the solar I can generate with the ASHP, IBoost and cooking. I would love a battery but I could only use about 4kwh /day use of stored solar PV in summer and winter would be entirely from E7. I need to do the sums on TOU tariffs but how long will they stay cheap if BEVs take off?

    Update 14 October: I ran the 3.5kw ASHP for heating continuously for 12.5 hrs today achieving/maintaining a temperature of 21/22C from a 19C start in a 38 sqm room.Outside temperature 6-12C. Used 3.4 kWh which works out an average of 272 watts/hour. This evening with the door closed consumption was 500 watts over 2h40m - 187 watts/hour average or about 3p an hour.
    I also ran the kitchen ASHP for about 10 hours today and a few hours yesterday. I don’t have the facility to monitor power on both but despite two miserable days have avoided putting the CH on even though the wife is at home.
    Update 15 September: I ran the 3.5 kw ASHP for 17.1 hours today to see if longer running would reduce the average consumption but it didn’t. Used 6.1 kw average 357w/hr. I was surprised at that as the outside temperature was similar to yesterday and although the door to the hall stayed open all day and evening that wouldn’t account for difference. The last 10 hours averaged 295w and the extra was all used in the first 7 hours.
    Originally posted by JKenH
    Just an update. W/C 4 November produced a poor result for our lounge ASHP of 41.2 kwh used over 80 hours- an average of 512 watts/hour. We had some colder weather that week and so the ASHP was less efficient. Consequently we used it less so when it was heating it was having to work harder.

    This week it has averaged 337 watts.

    Last night I forgot to turn the ASHP off and it has now been running continuously for 35 hours over which time it has used 9.4 kWh - an average of 269 watts/hour, with the door open for all but a couple of hours sustaining a temperature of 23C.This has worked well at heating the hall up (20C) and we have had no central heating on for the period the ASHP has been running. (The kitchen ASHP was on early morning and tea time). This has cost us 4.1p per hour daytime and 2.3p per hour on E7, about 86p per day, which seems pretty reasonable for a larger than average house. I am now inclined to just leave it running continuously (day and night) for the winter.
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, Nissan Leaf (plus some ICEs )
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