Index vs managed funds the great war

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  • ivormonee
    ivormonee Posts: 395 Forumite
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    firestone wrote: »
    given a few more years it will be just as hard to pick a tracker.I have one Vanguard fund from the 71 on their site (inc. active ones) does it really need that many? or does it look better to have more funds on offer

    But the 71 tracker funds that Vanguard have available relate to different so-called asset classes. They are not 71 versions of the same fund! Some allow you to invest in equities, some in bonds, some in commodities, etc. And, within each category there are further sub divisions allowing you to achieve the level of granularity you desire for your portfolio. Within equities, you may choose, for example, a fund that is invested in the Japanese stockmarket, and further still, a fund that might invest in the small and mid cap segments of the market etc.

    By offering 71 funds Vanguard (and others) are basically saying: here's a largish selection of funds that we can offer you, the investor, to enable you to put together a portfolio of your choice depending on how detailed you want to get within the asset classes themselves.

    If they only offered one fund you'd have less fun!
  • firestone
    firestone Posts: 520 Forumite
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    ivormonee wrote: »
    But the 71 tracker funds that Vanguard have available relate to different so-called asset classes. They are not 71 versions of the same fund! Some allow you to invest in equities, some in bonds, some in commodities, etc. And, within each category there are further sub divisions allowing you to achieve the level of granularity you desire for your portfolio. Within equities, you may choose, for example, a fund that is invested in the Japanese stockmarket, and further still, a fund that might invest in the small and mid cap segments of the market etc.

    By offering 71 funds Vanguard (and others) are basically saying: here's a largish selection of funds that we can offer you, the investor, to enable you to put together a portfolio of your choice depending on how detailed you want to get within the asset classes themselves.

    If they only offered one fund you'd have less fun!
    Agree with all you say- my point was that when trackers launched they were meant to be simple and make the choice easier now there are more every year.
    But i am all for the fun in investing:)
  • bowlhead99
    bowlhead99 Posts: 12,295 Forumite
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    Linton wrote: »
    The problem with index funds is that almost all are wedded to investing on the basis of market capitalisation.
    That is generally my problem with them too.

    What if I want to allocate my equities money in a diversified way around the world but don't want over 40% to be in companies based in or listed in any one country? Can't use a world index then. What if I want a nice broad allocation to a hundred companies or more in my region of choice, so I don't want over 3% in any one company? Can't use FTSE UK All Share or FTSE North America then. If I want small companies and I'm sold on indexing I can probably find a "small cap" index fund that will allocate most of my money to the very biggest of those small companies. Seems far from perfect.

    However if you raise such points to fans of indexing they will generally tell you that obviously they accept there are certain flaws with cheap cap-weighted indexes which they have been promoting to all and sundry... but not to worry because you could instead use the more expensive "smart beta" products which are relatively thinner on the ground and more expensive but address the reasons why traditional index funds are beaten by their active brethren (e.g. size factor, value factor, quality factor etc).

    Those 'better index funds' haven't been in existence for as long and may not be as widely available, but supporters can point to certain longer time periods in which they delivered great theoretical results in a backtested scenario.

    Although, when a supporter of active management points to the decent fund managers who have *actually* had great results in outperforming mainstream indexes by following their equities research and own personal strategies - which might include smaller companies, bottom-up evaluations of suitability of individual companies from a valuation perspective, etc etc - the index fans will poo-pooh all that and say it's all just luck and taking greater risk, and even if it isn't luck or higher risk there is a lot of competition and you wouldn't have known that the manager was worth following all those years ago.

    I have generally lost patience with fans of indexes who can't see beyond the last book or bit of research they read that was published or sponsored by someone with a vested interest. But don't think I'm biased, I'm also impatient with people who think active management is always best. So I try not to get involved in "active vs passive" threads, having already been on the boards for over a decade and seen the same stuff regurgitated time and again.

    Generally within a few posts into a thread, you generally end up with an argument between agnostics who will meet you halfway and say that active is best in some situations and passive can be better in others, versus hardline evangelists who say you should basically use passive in every situation and if a passive fund doesn't exist for a situation, it isn't a situation you should try to get into.
    It is easy to overweight an area with minor tweaks - how does one underweight it without having separate funds that cover all other areas?
    With difficulty. If you don't want something held within an index, the only way to avoid it is to buy more and more of everything else on the planet, to drown it out.

    The 'fans of passive' would say if it exists in the index you should buy it, the fact it has a valuation at all is proof that it's valuable, and the market is efficient. However, the market is fickle and can change its mind over what it's 'fair' valuation should be within a matter of days. There are some terrible companies limping on with bad performance, terrible corporate governance and so on, that get money thrown at them by index participants who haven't made any judgements and just want to pay money for a company because it exists and is large.

    So, in some markets I prefer to pay an experienced manager with an on-the-ground research team, to not waste my money buying those stocks. The payment to the manager can save on payments to the former owners of underperforming companies.
    It is perfectly possible to come up with your desired allocation with low cost indexes and is done by DFA. French and Fama would approve of your asset allocation strategy, but would recommend you do it with low cost index funds.
    As board members of DFA you would hardly expect them not to endorse doing it the DFA way. Can DFA funds be accessed by the general public through mainstream cheap brokers these days? In the old days they were targeted at an institutional investor base, being non-retail and only available through expensive wealth managers and investment advisers.
  • bostonerimus
    bostonerimus Posts: 5,617 Forumite
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    firestone wrote: »
    given a few more years it will be just as hard to pick a tracker.I have one Vanguard fund from the 71 on their site (inc. active ones) does it really need that many? or does it look better to have more funds on offer

    They are for slice and dicers.
    “So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”
  • bostonerimus
    bostonerimus Posts: 5,617 Forumite
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    bowlhead99 wrote: »
    As board members of DFA you would hardly expect them not to endorse doing it the DFA way.
    Indeed they are, I was being a little ironic, and they are great DFA marketing tools.
    Can DFA funds be accessed by the general public through mainstream cheap brokers these days? In the old days they were targeted at an institutional investor base, being non-retail and only available through expensive wealth managers and investment advisers.

    DFA can only be accessed by the individual through a financial advisor. Another irony is that they promote low fees and then sit behind a paywall. There has been extensive effort expended replicating various DFA funds with mixes of Vanguard funds and it is usually a toss up as to which wins until the advisor fee is added.
    “So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”
  • pip895
    pip895 Posts: 1,178 Forumite
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    I have run a mainly active portfolio for some 8 years its roughly 60% equity so I compare it to VLS60. Most years I beat VLS60 and have a slightly lower volatility. Overall I have drawn close to the VLS80 in performance. On a couple of years eg. 2016 VLS60 has outperformed, but what is more important to me is that in poor years and when periods when corrections have occurred my portfolio has outperformed VLS60.

    I have some new money to invest and was looking at saving some costs and using a passive portfolio however I have come to the conclusion that passives are good for US and to some extent Global investments and Emerging markets but for the UK/Japan and Europe and particularly small companies, active is better. In addition I am not happy with passives for the non equity part of my portfolio.

    My new portfolio will be about 50% Active and 50% Passive.:)
  • ivormonee
    ivormonee Posts: 395 Forumite
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    pip895 wrote: »
    I have come to the conclusion that passives are good for US and to some extent Global investments and Emerging markets but for the UK/Japan and Europe and particularly small companies, active is better. In addition I am not happy with passives for the non equity part of my portfolio.

    My new portfolio will be about 50% Active and 50% Passive.:)

    I just wondered whether you'd share your thoughts and how you arrived at the conclusion that for the UK/Japan and Europe sectors and particularly small companies, active is better?
  • Linton
    Linton Posts: 17,162 Forumite
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    ivormonee wrote: »
    Ok, let me rephrase the proposal: arrive at a consensus of "best" funds/ managers for each sector, appropriate to the stages/ lifecycle/ circumstances of the markets/ economy.

    We still won't see any consensus!

    And we won't know when circumstances will dictate that the the time is right for "someone else to pick up the baton". If we did, that would mean we had good skills at seeing into the future and being good at market timing which, I think we probably will agree, is simply not consistently possible.

    You dont need to know who is going to be best fund manager in every sector to have an effective active fund portfolio. It's a false argument.

    Out of my 6 main funds 2 are 1st quartile over 3 years, 2 are 2nd quartile, 1 is 3rd quartile and 1 is 4th quartile. And yet the portfolio as a whole has beaten VLS100 every year. If I did have mystic powers the returns would of course be much better but sadly I dont.
  • ivormonee
    ivormonee Posts: 395 Forumite
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    Linton wrote: »

    Out of my 6 main funds 2 are 1st quartile over 3 years, 2 are 2nd quartile, 1 is 3rd quartile and 1 is 4th quartile. And yet the portfolio as a whole has beaten VLS100 every year. If I did have mystic powers the returns would of course be much better but sadly I dont.

    Exactly! You have done well, beating a comparative asset allocation with your own choice of funds - especially, weightings/ other factors being equal, as 4 out of 6 of your funds are 1st or 2nd quartile. But, for every Linton portfolio there is a non-Linton with a portfolio where whose choices have resulted in the opposite - 4 out of 6 funds being in the 3rd and 4th quartiles. It's the maths: If you have four quartiles then half will be above and half will be below. For every active fund winner there is an active fund loser and, due to the ever changing landscape of active fund performance, the top funds interchange with the bottom funds and there is no way anyone can be sure which fund will do well or badly next. Or is there?

    It is precisely because of the lack of "mystic powers" and the lack of consistency amongst active fund managers that your portfolio cannot always be a winner. It's done well, it might do very well again for some time but at some point you would expect it to underperform, would you not?

    This is the conundrum at the crux of the great mystery: to index or not to index, that is the question.
  • pip895
    pip895 Posts: 1,178 Forumite
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    ivormonee wrote: »
    I just wondered whether you'd share your thoughts and how you arrived at the conclusion that for the UK/Japan and Europe sectors and particularly small companies, active is better?

    Simply looking at how my active funds compared. My suspicion is that much of it is small company advantage - UK all company funds I pick always seem to have more small companies than the All Share index. Similarly with the Japanese and European funds, though a little less marked.

    With the non equity stuff the active funds seem to perform better and are less volatile. One issue I have is that many funds don't have a history that goes back far enough - I like to see how they performed in 2008 - then this point covers many passives as well.
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