Prepping for Brexit thread

Honey_Bear wrote: »

It could be 50 years before we see the economic benefits of Leaving according to Jacob Rees-Mogg, or if you prefer a businessman's perspective - 100 years. Both of them supported and campaigned for Leave. But as you say, it's not permanent.

Once prices go up they do not come down. The increases in the cost of living will be permanent, and if the border control discussions and planning taking place right now are to be believed, EU members will not want their produce sitting in a lorry park for four days while we check paperwork. One truckload of fruit, veg, meat and dairy going off will be the only one each EU's exporter will be prepared to accept because food margins are low, trucks are an expensive investment, and the drivers' time expensive. After that, they will simply not both trying to bring us any food at all. There will be a glut in Europe, prices will drop and next year the farmers will produce less.

See here for WTO tariffs on beef and lamb. There are no doubt other documents readily available for other products such as medicines (if we have the regulatory infrastructure in place that makes importing them legal). We will be paying tariffs on imported food until we can do trade deals but we won't be getting better terms than anyone who currently has a trade deal with the EU. So that's not permanent, but it will significantly increase the price of 40% of our food.

And I for one am praying neither I, nor anyone I care about, gets diagnosed with cancer in the forseeable future, because it'll be a fatal diagnosis with No Deal. That may not be permanent, and for the majority of people that's fine. For those currently taking shedloads of imported drugs because they had bowel cancer a couple of years ago, it's not so comforting that one day, some time in the future, we'll be able to import radioactive isotopes again if it comes back. Don't get breast cancer, either, obviously. Does any on this thread know how long does it take to train nuclear scientists?

You can be absolutely certain that all of the MPs on the front bench have private medical insurance, and that they can afford to fly to anywhere they can get treated. I can't, but maybe others on this thread can. If not, better start saving. It won't be permanent, but it might taka few years to do these trade deals, so stay well until then.

We won't be flying to Europe, because the Open Skies agreement ends with our No Deal departure from the EU. Michael O'Leary has been warning about this for over two years, so it's not news.

Hi

In earlier posts there's reference to what you post " .. is not scare-mongering", however the posts you've made continually do a very good job of attempting to do just that ... scaremonger ...

This is not the thread to vent anger at any particular colour/flavour of politicians or attempt to sway public opinion to a remain cause, it's simply one where anyone who has accepted that Brexit is almost certainly going to happen in some form or other share information to mitigate the impact of any trans-border product supply issues which may arise. What I've seen over the past few pages seem to be regurgitation of argument seen elsewhere, much of which can easily be challenged ... taking a sample just from the above-referenced post as an example ...

- " prices will drop and next year the farmers will produce less" .. in which case there will be considerable pressure from the individual EU countries placed on Brussels to urgently negotiate a fair trading agreement on perishable goods to prevent economic impact, so the 'project fear' point raised becomes self defeating even from an EU standpoint ...

- " .. See here for WTO tariffs on beef and lamb." ... So, the only reference to tariff details that contains are an industry view of EU border tariffs for imports, not WTO ... interestingly that link actually describes how much the EU penalises imports to protect the internal market ... for example product code 02011000 (Carcases or half-carcases) 12.8% + 176.8 euros/100kg - effectively increases the cost of beef imports by 84% and for sheep carcasses the data shows +46% ... from a consumer pricing point that seems to be something the could have a positive impact on supermarket shelf pricing!. The report also shows an opportunity for the UK to meet a greater proportion of it's own internal market in this sector - addressing this could effectively halve the import requirement in this particular sector with the remainder sourced globally if the EU are slow to agree a fair trade treaty in this sector - Argentina, Brazil, USA & Australia readily come to mind whether on a WTO or negotiated trade deal basis ... it's likely a win/win for UK consumers, a win/loss for UK producers & a loss/loss for EU producers, so again, massive pressure on Brussels to up their performance from various parts of the continent.

- ".. And I for one .." ... Okay, accepted, there'll be problems with regulating & approval bodies if someone really wants to make them to prove a point by intentionally shortening the potential lifespan of others ... however, the consequences of attempting this would likely be pretty severe if (/when) applying existing EU law & treaty provisions ... what really needs to be understood is that both the medical supplies industry & the medical instrumentation companies exist on a global basis and as such are not controlled by the EU ... in other words, alternative source likely exist for most things and as internationalised standards equivalence already exist in a global market, issues raised regarding this point are usually well exaggerated by those looking to 'scaremonger' for some reason or other ...

- "We won't be flying to Europe .." - Fine, then we'll be staying at home or flying elsewhere in the opposite direction .... the issue here is that both UK sovereign airspace and UK controlled airspace are currently managed as part of the European Common Aviation Area ... fine, so the likely outcome of not entering into a bilateral aviation agreement & intentionally manufacturing problems for UK flights to EU destinations would be the closure of almost all current EU source transatlantic routes in UK controlled airspace whilst the eastern Atlantic air operations (SOCC) based at Prestwick are fully duplicated within the EU (likely Shannon in Ireland), however, the cost & disruption (ie heavily restricted (/no) transatlantic flights to/from Europe) of actually doing this in the short-term would be immense and therefore something to avoid by relatively straightforward negotiation .... so is this argument really something to stress over, or is it simply another 'project fear' attempt to scaremonger? - well, a few more UK & EU summers like this one & it'll be a moot point, I've no issue with 'staycations' whilst the negotiators discover that it's a 'storm in a teacup' - anyone else?

The more the argument & indecision raised & caused by those still haven't accepted that we'll be leaving the EU, the less opportunity for planning a route through the process prior to leaving is available ... Brexit could have been a relatively straightforward process if the ideology & emotions of those in denial (within the UK & EU) hadn't got (/weren't still getting) in the way ..

Less scaremongering would be good overall, but on this thread it makes little difference .... we here are more likely to already have some form of plan than the 'experts' who are supposed to be planning!

HTH
Z

lessonlearned wrote: »

Tbh. I too am fed up with the politics on here.

I thought this thread was supposed to be a practical guide and a place to share ideas and information of how to prepare ourselves for whatever we may have to face, not to engage in political point scoring.

(The title of the thread was self explanatory was it not)

Instead it has been systematically hijacked by people who want to spread what amounts to hysteria and who have a political axe to grind.

The place for political posturing is on the Discussion board.

The Old Style boards are for people who want to take a practical hands on approach to saving money and to managing their lives well.

I too am now out.

I leave the Politicos to their hand wringing and posturing.

I'm following you out the door.

GustyGardenGalaxy wrote: »

An expert in international trade educated James O'Brien on what will happen after Britain leaves the European Union

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/expert-schools-james-obrien-on-brexit-facts/


Listen and weep for for the UK and its people.

No comments on this? Please listen to the interview, it's extremely important.