Green, ethical, energy issues in the news
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Martyn1981 wrote: »Why frack for oil if BEV's are cheaper, and then solar and storage make leccy even more cheaper?
Because fracking saved the net oil importers bums inc UK consumers
I know some green cheerleaders dont care about poverty but the masses dont want to be poorer.
Without fracking which has added 8.5 million barrels per day to oil production, what would oil prices be today? $150 dollars?
Why would anyone sane want the UK consumer to have to spend $50 billion more for oil?
Even if we think high oil prices are good we can just tax oil more and keep the revenue in UK taxes rather than send them to Russia/Saudi who have less than ideal track records on human rights
Shale saved the net oil importers and drastically crippled the economies of Russia/Opec relative to what they would otherwise have been. Both a net good in my books
It also displaced some more expensive/risky offshore oil drilling also a good thing
The Yanks, once again, saved Europe from itself
We can continue to ban / delay / confuse over shale but thanks to the yanks the fossil energy supply is going to be plentiful and keep the net oil / gas exporters more honest than they otherwise would be...at least for another 3-5 years (and already has been the case for nearly a decade)0 -
Martyn1981 wrote: »Why frack for oil if BEV's are cheaper
BEVs are not cheaper.
A tesla model 3 costs £40k while you can buy a new oil car for £15k
The actual transport energy disruption, if/when it happens, is self drive software.
That way you can have self drive EVs that run 100,000 miles a year rather than 10-20k miles per year private owned EVs. So one self drive car can displace 5-10 human driven cars.
Even if EVs fail (unlikely) very efficient long life self drive oil cars could replace much less efficient much shorter lives oil cars. Fleet efficiency could double with self drive efficient oil fleets getting 80mpg rather than humans at 40mpgsolar and storage make leccy even more cheaper?
right now solar + storage makes 'leccy' expensive which is why you are not disconnecting from the grid
Will solar + storage make 'leccy' cheaper ... maybe but we are not there yet
If it works this 'storage' will likely be in the form of 'free' storage in the form of BEVs and with a model 3 at £40,000 vs an oil car at £15,000 this is not going to happen soon0 -
Martyn1981 wrote: »Why frack for oil if BEV's are cheaper, and then solar and storage make leccy even more cheaper?
b'cos BEVs cheaper than oil cars and PV+Batteries cheaper than the grid are currently ..... fantasy and basing economic and security decisions on fantasy is generally not advised
Even if you were trying to make the argument that those things (BEVs PV Batts) will be cheaper soon.... well fracking declines very rapidly so you would and should continue to frack until only about 6-12 months until the crossover in costs. Unlike say coal mines and offshore oil where the declines are much more gradual and you would need to guess 10-15 years out what BEVs PV Batts will be doing0 -
Martyn1981 wrote: »Short article, but great graphics to demonstrate coal's decline in the UK, and to show how it stacks up in Europe.
The power switch: tracking Britain's record coal-free run
Further to this, and the UK setting a new record by going coal free for a whole week at the start of May ..... well we've beaten that already with a 10 day run so far ...... and counting.Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
Yep, I just checked that link myself: 10d17h. I don't think they'll need any today. As a guide my panels are doing reasonably well and the silver birch at the bottom of the garden is showing a decent breeze.0
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You can't buy any oil car for £15k with similar performance and features to the Tesla Model 3. The motoring press compare its performance, features and quality to the BMW 330i Sport which retails for around £39K. If you want to go downmarket there are much cheaper BEV from the likes of Nissan, Hyundai, Kia and so on. Admittedly the longer-range versions of these, just like the Tesla Model 3, are subject to severe availability constraints at the moment (in one case because the Norwegians are buying almost all of them), but that's this year and next year, not the 5-year or longer timescale that we're talking about.A tesla model 3 costs £40k while you can buy a new oil car for £15k7.25 kWp PV system (4.1kW WSW & 3.15kW ENE), Solis inverter, myenergi eddi & harvi for energy diversion to immersion heater. myenergi hub for Virtual Power Plant demand-side response trial.0 -
You can't buy any oil car for £15k with similar performance and features to the Tesla Model 3. The motoring press compare its performance, features and quality to the BMW 330i Sport which retails for around £39K. If you want to go downmarket there are much cheaper BEV from the likes of Nissan, Hyundai, Kia and so on. Admittedly the longer-range versions of these, just like the Tesla Model 3, are subject to severe availability constraints at the moment (in one case because the Norwegians are buying almost all of them), but that's this year and next year, not the 5-year or longer timescale that we're talking about.
Yep. In fact, Motor Trend magazine in the US, one of the long standing car mags (I used to have a subscription to them, Truck Trend and Car & Driver), recently carried out a comparison to find the best sports sedan you can buy for $50k. The TM3 was included in their final three car short list, and won.
Crucially here - this had nothing to do with BEV's ICE's etc, the TM3 was simply included as a 'car', and won, beating the iconic BMW3 series car (that was $6k more expensive) into third place ........ and then imagine the fuel and maintenance savings on top.
So on a like for like basis, BEV's have arrived, it's only when someone compares a $100k luxury TMS to a base Fiat Punto on price alone, that we see issues ...... lots of issues!
Tesla Model 3 Rewrites The Rules Of What A Sport Sedan Can Be, Motor Trend ReflectsMart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
You can't buy any oil car for £15k with similar performance and features to the Tesla Model 3. The motoring press compare its performance, features and quality to the BMW 330i Sport which retails for around £39K. If you want to go downmarket there are much cheaper BEV from the likes of Nissan, Hyundai, Kia and so on. Admittedly the longer-range versions of these, just like the Tesla Model 3, are subject to severe availability constraints at the moment (in one case because the Norwegians are buying almost all of them), but that's this year and next year, not the 5-year or longer timescale that we're talking about.
£40,000 for the model 3 or £31,500 for a Nisan Leaf while the top 5 selling oil cars in the UK are roughly
1: Ford Fiesta £13,645
2: Volkswgen Golf £19,137
3: Corsa £11,735
4 Qashqai £19,000
5: Ford Focus £16,800
Sure they are not the same segment of car but I am not saying teslas wont sell, I am saying the largest segments are the affordable cars which EVs do not get close to
The maintenance costs are also mostly not important consideration for new buyers since a typical car has 4 owners in its life and the first owner will be under guarantee. The 10p fuel vs the 4p electricity will mostly be offset by the 5p insurance for the cheap oil car vs the 10p insurance for the expensive EV (just an example) so there isn't even much if anything saving in running costs with cheaper electricity offset by more expensive insurance
If human driven EVs are to dominate we need a compelling £15,000 EV capable of at least 150 miles range (which realistically means closer 90 miles usable since you do not want to charge to 100% or discharge to 0%) and this price needs to include the home charging kits etc0 -
Martyn1981 wrote: »Yep. In fact, Motor Trend magazine in the US, one of the long standing car mags (I used to have a subscription to them, Truck Trend and Car & Driver), recently carried out a comparison to find the best sports sedan you can buy for $50k. The TM3 was included in their final three car short list, and won.
Crucially here - this had nothing to do with BEV's ICE's etc, the TM3 was simply included as a 'car', and won, beating the iconic BMW3 series car (that was $6k more expensive) into third place ........ and then imagine the fuel and maintenance savings on top.
So on a like for like basis, BEV's have arrived, it's only when someone compares a $100k luxury TMS to a base Fiat Punto on price alone, that we see issues ...... lots of issues!
Tesla Model 3 Rewrites The Rules Of What A Sport Sedan Can Be, Motor Trend Reflects
But how big a segment is the lux expensive segment?
The top 10 selling cars in the UK have an average sale price below half that of a model 3
You are not going to convince those buyers to spend 2-3 times as much and pay 2-3 x as much in insurance costs so they can do 0-60 in 5 seconds rather than 10 seconds especially when the average speed in a place like London is a whopping 15mph...
Maybe this is why tesla looks like it might be having demand problems. Performance sedan sector not as big as imagined0 -
£40,000 for the model 3 or £31,500 for a Nisan Leaf
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/best-cars/99735/the-cheapest-electric-cars-on-sale
has the Leaf at £27,995 inc grant, but more importantly the Smart ForFour at £18,190 inc grant. That's comparable with the prices you're listing for the popular market segment. And it's likely to keep coming down as time goes on.
Why keep going on about the Model 3? The average buyer in the UK is not going to buy a Model 3, just like the average buyer in the UK doesn't buy a BMW 330i Sport (although there seem to be far too many of them round here).7.25 kWp PV system (4.1kW WSW & 3.15kW ENE), Solis inverter, myenergi eddi & harvi for energy diversion to immersion heater. myenergi hub for Virtual Power Plant demand-side response trial.0
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