How to predict annual Gas&elec usage 3 months in?

buel10 · 10 November 2018 at 8:46AM

Hi all,
We have moved from a property using Calor Gas to a property using British Gas. We have our usage for Gas and Electricity for the 3 months since we've moved in but am struggling to work out what our annual usage will be in order to use a price comparison site. nPower have given their 'estimated' usage but I can only assume that this is based upon the last 3 months, however, being as these have been cold months (so we've used more Gas and Electricity than we would, say, in the sprint and summer months), I don't think this would be a fair estimate.

Any thoughts, please? I just want to be able to give a fair estimate so that I can use a price comparison site.

Robin9 · 10 November 2018 at 8:56AM

Use 3500 kwh for electric and 10000 for gas.

Expect quite a high DD at this time of year as the supplier will be trying to ensure you don't go into debt.

Read your meters every month, keep your own records, look at your bills

matelodave · 10 November 2018 at 9:51AM

The average for gas is now reckoned to be 12000kwh/year which is down from about 13500kwh a couple of years ago.

Not sure how they work out that it's dropped that much over such a short time.

I can't think that there are so many new or more efficient heating systems being installed so I'm guessing that it's a ploy to estimate lower costs which might come back and bite you.

As Robin says keep your own records, read your meter every month and make sure that bills and online statements correctly reflect your actual meter readings. Do not accept estimated bills. Make sure that your DD's are keeping on track to balance your account at the end of your contract. Five minutes once a month checking your meter readings and statements can save hours of grief in the future.

Do not rely on the supplier or the on-line account so save your records.

I recommend that you download and save your monthly statements or bills as PDF files ready for the almost inevitable situation when the suppliers system goes wrong because it's nigh on impossible to retrieve them if you have a query.

System · 10 November 2018 at 10:24AM

buel10 wrote: »

Hi all,
We have moved from a property using Calor Gas to a property using British Gas. We have our usage for Gas and Electricity for the 3 months since we've moved in but am struggling to work out what our annual usage will be in order to use a price comparison site. nPower have given their 'estimated' usage but I can only assume that this is based upon the last 3 months, however, being as these have been cold months (so we've used more Gas and Electricity than we would, say, in the sprint and summer months), I don't think this would be a fair estimate.

Any thoughts, please? I just want to be able to give a fair estimate so that I can use a price comparison site.

The suppliers hold 2 years of historical data for your property based on past usage adjusted for seasonal variations in the weather. Call them and ask for the Estimated Annual Consumption for electricity and Annual Quantity for gas. These figures will give you are starting point but, as you know, no two homeowners are the same. It is also worth checking the EPC for the property.

None of this is an exact science. We moved into a new build property 3 months ago. The EPC estimates that we will use 8500 kWh for heating and hot water. I set my projection at 10000kWhs/year. After 3 months of doing nothing more than reheating a hot water cylinder, my estimated annual usage for gas has been estimated by the supplier at 15000kwhs/year. we have agreed a sensible DD payment.

matelodave · 10 November 2018 at 11:07AM

Fortunately I've got eight years worth of weekly meter readings so I've got a pretty good idea of how my energy consumption changes between summer and winter months. I can estimate quite accurately how much I'll use each month and my total annual consumption. However it can vary a bit depending on the weather in winter, spring and autumn.

It allows me to monitor my costs to within a couple of quid a month so I can predict when my DD will balance out - usually on the last month of a 12 month fix unless the energy company try faffing about with it during the year.

AndyPK · 10 November 2018 at 11:13AM

sometimes suppliers use silly rules to estimate (number of bedrooms, was it built before or after a certain year). I have found these to be wild estimates!

I would measure 31 days usage over November (a cold period)
(there is a forumla to convert from a Gas meter reading to KHW)

Times by 4 (cold months). for Nov, Dec, Jan Feb.
Then Take the monthly figure, and divide by 3. and then times that by 8 for the reset of the months in the year. Add those two figures!
It's not very scientific, but worth calculating.

Then take that estimate, and an estimate you got from somewhere else, and go roughly in the middle.

For price site comparison purposes, don't worry too much, just get yourself on a fix for 1 year.

redux · 10 November 2018 at 11:37AM

This house

2.5 gas units a day in summer, 100 a day winter peak

4.5 electric per day summer, 7.5 winter

overall 95p a day summer, up to £4.50 a day winter peak, autumn/spring somewhere in between.

I'm not giving these figures to help, in fact the opposite, to show you or the supplier can't really extrapolate a year from the last 3 months.

Do you set the thermostat on 17, 20, 22 degrees?

Just go with a round estimate as above, 12 to 15,000 gas, and by Christmas or mid Jan the meter readings will start to tune things a bit.

buel10 · 11 November 2018 at 12:09PM

Thank you, all.
Quick one - I have done the comparison on moneysupermarket.com and have:
The best option (that they can't switch me to) of a projected saving of £346 per year but is variable.
Or
£270 per year but is fixed.

Thoughts, please?

matelodave · 11 November 2018 at 12:23PM

Do you think the variable one could increase by more than £76 over the next 12 months.

If yes then go for the fixed, if no then go for the variable and if you don't really know then toss a coin.

If you can get a fixed with no exit fees then you can swap later if you find a better deal - as you are now nearly into winter then IMO you really want the cheapest you can get and see what the market is like next spring/summer.

When you are looking at savings are you comparing costs or perceived savings - you need to check actually how much each will COST based on the same number of kwh. It will only cost you less if the price per kwh and/or the standing charge is less than you are presently paying.

Do not be seduced into what the sites say about "savings" -- do your own sums.

Anthony_C · 28 November 2018 at 7:47PM

This is good advice.
I read my meters at least every month and now I take a photo of the meter on my smartphone
I have found errors in my statements, such as the readings, the total price and the total VAT price
For about 40 years my gas central heating has used between 14,000 and 17,000kWh. I have just changed to a new supplier and I stated 16,000kWh.

Anthony_C · 28 November 2018 at 7:58PM

Jan Feb Mar 2018
3 bed semi
Gas central heating: new condensing boiler
Heating 50C
Hot water 55C
Double glazing
Wall/roof insulation
Room temperature 22C (illness)
Average winter day I used £2.75 per day
Price of a cup of coffee

matelodave wrote: »

Fortunately I've got eight years worth of weekly meter readings so I've got a pretty good idea of how my energy consumption changes between summer and winter months. I can estimate quite accurately how much I'll use each month and my total annual consumption. However it can vary a bit depending on the weather in winter, spring and autumn.

It allows me to monitor my costs to within a couple of quid a month so I can predict when my DD will balance out - usually on the last month of a 12 month fix unless the energy company try faffing about with it during the year.

How to predict annual Gas&elec usage 3 months in?

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