Electric cars
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s Plan To Take Tesla PrivateShortly after an article by the Financial Times confirmed that the Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund had amassed a $2 billion stake in Tesla, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that he was considering taking the company private with a share buyback at a $420 price point. His initial tweet was confirmed within a few hours with a new blog post on Tesla’s website, where the company shared an internal email from CEO Elon Musk to all Tesla employees sharing his logic for the move.
He started off the email noting that “a final decision has not yet been made,” but that the move was being seriously considered to insulate the company from a few specific issues that have been distracting the company of late. Elon hopes the move would reduce the internal swirl caused by the massive stock swings it experiences as a publicly traded stock. Having worked in a large publicly traded company that experienced both stock highs and lows for nearly two decades, I can attest to the change in internal morale of a company when employees are vested in the success of the company on Wall Street.Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
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Martyn1981 wrote: »I don't think you understand what was being discussed!Tesla have already 'electrified' that segment, if the companies you mention sell EV's into that segment as well as, or instead of Tesla, then the segment remains electrified. So Job done, yes?So yes, I'm sure I mean/meant exactly what I said:Tesla has the large luxury saloon segment sewed up as top dogWash your Knobs and Knockers... Keep the Postie safe!0
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Martyn1981 wrote: »
As to why your theory/claims are wrong, I don't know, I've made a few suggestions and guesses to help you out, but the issue was can long established companies easily switch from ICE's to EV's, and it seems to be a lot harder than you thought/think.
The main reasons are financial and strategic (which works back to financial).
Tesla can produce EVs because all they do is produce EVs.
If (say) Ford starts producing EVs they have to calculate how the profit they make on those EVs compares to what theyd make on an ICE (whose R&D costs are already amortized ) and the sums wont look pretty.
Also if they make a great EV, it makes their equivalent ICEs look somewhat pathetic. Why would customers buy those now? So now you are cannibalising your profitable ICEs and selling less profitable EVs.
And strategic, most ICE manufacturers "special sauce" is to do with engines and transmissions. If they go for EVs they are putting themselves on a level playing field with pretty much anyone else who makes EVs. They have no expertise in EV manufacture, as said even GM had to outsource.
So when they do go for it the timing needs to be right, they need to have profitable EVs, at least as profitable as their ICEs, so battery costs need to be lower than now, but they they also need to factor in that if other manufacturers get into EVs first, they may take away market share of their EVs. eg lets say that VW have an awesome EV with the Golf replacement, maybe that will eat the equivalent Ford (what would that be a Focus maybe?) so Ford do need to calculate hwo that plays out.
And they need to have battery supply lined up, that's very non trivial hence VW spending umpty billion on battery supplies. Unless you can raise the finance to do that, making EVs in large numbers isnt possible anyway so maybe its better to lose 5% market share than spend billiosn to produce a handful of EVs. The numbers of Bolts that GM are making are a drop in the ocean compared to their other production.
And even now many execs at IE manufacturers are still sceptical, or selfishly would rather squeeze out a few more years of high ICE profits and get out witha big payoff leaving the younger generation of middle range execs to worry about how to square this circle.
And lastly its structural, their route to market is via dealers, dealers get nothing from EVs because there is so little servicing needed. Thats another tough problem to solve.
Not all ICE manufacturers will solve all these dilemmas. 10 years time quite a few will be gone.0 -
AnotherJoe wrote: »... And lastly its structural, their route to market is via dealers, dealers get nothing from EVs because there is so little servicing needed. Thats another tough problem to solve.
Not all ICE manufacturers will solve all these dilemmas. 10 years time quite a few will be gone.
In reality there'll need to be a lot of rationalisation in the dealership sector - with the servicing requirements of EVs being far lighter than ICEs, the current setup is far too large. Additionally, there's nothing to prevent equipment with a generally lower maintenance/service requirement to be offered on-line direct from the manufacturer or an agent with large on-line presence ... it's been happening at a low level for some time, but if legacy margins are squeezed by new entrants using a modern business model then it's the obvious move for many manufacturers to survive ...
I agree that there'll also be a lot of change in the automotive sector ... those that don't adapt to change will either fold or be swallowed-up by prowling competitors ... what needs to be remembered is that current marques that attract high prices normally do so because there's a general belief that they have better design, build quality, reliability & reputation, however the move to EVs effectively resets the market towards a more level playing field where price competitiveness is likely to be more relevant than a century of experience in building combustion engines.
Sitting back and waiting isn't really an option for most current manufacturers ... complacency in times of change allows competitors to steal a lead and use that lead to both develop economies of scale & technical prowess resulting in far more competitive product ... it's happened time & time again in other manufacturing sectors, sector dominating companies at the top of their game being complacent and suddenly finding the rug pulled from beneath their feet & disappearing - it's likely that we can all name pretty long lists of brands/marques that have faded away without too much trouble, so in 10-20 years time who knows what the sector will look like, but it's highly likely that there'll be a number of major players that don't currently exist or readily come to mind!
HTH
Z"We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle0 -
I think you took it off into a different question...
I wasn't just talking about being first into a market segment but about consistently/sustainably making a profit in that segment. Otherwise the Hammerhead Eagle iThrust has the range extender sports car segment sewn up and the BMW i8 is doomed to failure:D
All of those comments relate to the 'electrification' of different US car segments.
I believe my comments are very simple, clear and correct. Your misunderstanding is more than a stretch, it simply misses (ignores) what was being discussed.So yes, I'm sure I mean/meant exactly what I said:
Namely...
You missed out the words "at the moment".
Seriously? It was a statement of fact at a point in time, not a future prediction. Again, I think you've misunderstood what I wrote.Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
AnotherJoe wrote: »Not all ICE manufacturers will solve all these dilemmas. 10 years time quite a few will be gone.
My thoughts are very similar. The smaller companies like JLR may be able to bend, then adapt, but the big, big boys will not find it simple, nor easy.
If GM, Ford or Fiat Chrysler were taking the US interest in EV's seriously, then they would be partnering up, or buying out battery manufacturers now. GM's 'odd' approach to the Bolt, and Ford's retreat from cars to pickups and SUV's looks like more avoidance from scared companies, rather than an acceptance of the coming disruption.Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
Hi
it's happened time & time again in other manufacturing sectors, sector dominating companies at the top of their game being complacent and suddenly finding the rug pulled from beneath their feet & disappearing
HTH
Z
GM and Ford = Nokia and Blackberry perhaps?Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
Sitting back and waiting isn't really an option for most current manufacturers
True, but maybe it is for a top exec, say 4-5 years from retirement who can convince the shareholders that this is a fad / there arent the profits / EVs will only be 20% of the market in 2050 ("look at this report from Aramco or BP proving so") / Tesla will go bust and the pressure will be off, and take his nice golden parachute as the stock price falls off a cliff and leave someone else to pick up the pieces (or brush them under a carpet as its irrecoverable)
There are any number of top level execs in the past who have put themselves above the company (let alone the employees) and driven the company to a hollow shell that implodes just as they parachute away.0 -
AnotherJoe wrote: »And lastly its structural, their route to market is via dealers, dealers get nothing from EVs because there is so little servicing needed. Thats another tough problem to solve.
What does an EV not require at a routine dealer service that an ICE car does?
Oil, an oil filter and an air filter? Everything else will be the same and, no doubt, some form of essential battery/charging system check will be devised to make up the losses.0 -
But I can fill my petrol tank to 100% and the last 20% takes approximately the same time as the first 20%. If I fill it to 50% or 80% I might save a minute but then I don't get as much range. So not a like-for-like comparison.
it isn't currently practical and the effective range is reduced as a resultWhat does an EV not require at a routine dealer service that an ICE car does?
Oil, an oil filter and an air filter? Everything else will be the same and, no doubt, some form of essential battery/charging system check will be devised to make up the losses.
Why are you talking about EV servicing as if you're speculating about the future?! I've already paid for 2 services (£85 each) and yes, there's still plenty to do. Brake pads should last longer due to regeneration (but they might fit smaller pads offsetting this), and there are simply fewer bits to check - you missed the entire exhaust system for example which you would expect to be visually inspected during a service.0
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