Electric cars

Martyn1981 · 20 July 2018 at 4:46PM

GunJack wrote: »

I get 61mpg averaged over all mileage in 11 months in my 15-y-o diesel.

So approx 9p/mile v's 2p/mile for an EV. That's a £70 difference for every 1,000 miles driven, or approx £560 pa against average UK mileage.

Without factoring in the reduced fuel cost, reduced brake/brake wear costs, and reduced servicing costs, you are not comparing like for like.

And that's before we get to the CO2, NOx, asthma, noise etc issues* that will drive the change and justify the EV subsidy currently being given to early adopters.

*You were asking for a subsidy, but you already get a huge one by avoiding paying externality costs - and that's not a personal attack, I'm in the same boat owning an ICE, as are most drivers/households.

Martyn1981 · 20 July 2018 at 4:53PM

almillar wrote: »

Remotely heating/cooling your car isn't EV exclusive, but makes a lot more sense. Some new Land Rovers and BMWs can 'pre-heat' and in colder climates pre-heating your car is a daily chore, I guess.

Pre-heating in Sweden is done by plugging the ICE car in. You have a small socket on the front linked to a heater element (that replaces an engine block bolt I think(?)). So you get up, pop the lead out to the car, whilst you have breakfast.

I found this fascinating when looking at some Ford models in a showroom in Stockholm about 17yrs ago. Wifey and I were planning to get BIL to arrange the purchase for us, and drive it back to the UK, back when you could order a UK spec car in Europe for far far less than UK prices, then pay the VAT at the docks when you drive off the ferry.

Silly point, but BIL once told me the golden rule for digging your car out of the snow in the morning - start with the numberplate! He also sent us a photo of his dashboard one day showing -17C ..... Brrr.

AdrianC · 20 July 2018 at 4:55PM

Herzlos wrote: »

Of course. But you're example of a journey too big for an EV (I assume that was your point), could have been done more conveniently with todays EV offerings than with combustion, assuming the infrastructure was in place. That's all I'm trying to establish.

Yes, you can make various assumptions that aren't currently reality, to change something unfeasible into something feasible.

But "more conveniently"? As conveniently, sure. But more?

Herzlos · 20 July 2018 at 5:15PM

AdrianC wrote: »

Yes, you can make various assumptions that aren't currently reality, to change something unfeasible into something feasible.

But "more conveniently"? As conveniently, sure. But more?

Well the issue is no longer the range or distance (the car), it's the number of charging points (the infrastructure). More charging points will help you regardless of how the vehicle tech advances.

More convenient in that you refuel whilst shopping (I assume), and just need to plug/un-plug, rather than needing to stop via a petrol station at some point.

zeupater · 20 July 2018 at 5:59PM

AdrianC wrote: »

Yes, you can make various assumptions that aren't currently reality, to change something unfeasible into something feasible.

But "more conveniently"? As conveniently, sure. But more?

Hi

Surely starting a journey in the morning with the maximum load of stored energy would be more convenient than needing to drive to a public filling/charging station & queueing to achieve the same? ... that's reality & totally feasible, evidenced by the fact that many currently do exactly that, so I don't follow the point you're making other than continually raising personal requirements & expectations ....

So, if an EV range of 100, 200, 300, 350 or even 400 miles isn't now considered good enough, what range would you consider an "EV with sufficient range" would really need before a "journey can be done quite happily by EV with sufficient range and charging access" .... maybe therein lies the real issue as "the gap between theory and current mass-market reality" for many has already been bridged despite the postulations of those opposed to the technology on little more than egocentric grounds ...

Sorry, but the more you post, the less sense you tend to make, so the more you'll need to post to attempt justification - it's effectively an argument that can't be won because of two major grounds - global political will & high proportion of consumers both expecting & demanding a rapid rate of change ... but keep up on the 'anti-' as almost everyone involved with daily experience of actually using EVs loves a good chuckle from time-to-time ...

HTH
Z

AdrianC · 20 July 2018 at 6:43PM

Herzlos wrote: »

Well the issue is no longer the range or distance (the car), it's the number of charging points (the infrastructure).

It's the combination of both.

More convenient in that you refuel whilst shopping (I assume), and just need to plug/un-plug, rather than needing to stop via a petrol station at some point.

Ah, right. I'm with you. Yes, there is that - so long as the range is no less than the longest leg of any journey, because

I still think there's potential in the concept of modular, easily-swappable batteries, as trailed by BetterPlace (and, yes, Tesla had a brief fling with the concept, too) - but that's going nowhere without some serious cross-manufacturer co-operation to define a standardised battery design, which will inevitably dent range, simply because of the knock-ons to the vehicle packaging.

Herzlos · 20 July 2018 at 11:34PM

I don't think swappable batteries will take off because theres too many design compromises yo make it work, the logistics of doing it are horrible and people will be wary of getting a bad battery.

It might work in fields with more room to compromise and higher usage requirements, like farm/plant equipment, trucks etc, where the owner/operator controls and owns all of the facilities and batteries.

GunJack · 21 July 2018 at 7:55AM

Martyn1981 wrote: »

So approx 9p/mile v's 2p/mile for an EV. That's a £70 difference for every 1,000 miles driven, or approx £560 pa against average UK mileage.

Without factoring in the reduced fuel cost, reduced brake/brake wear costs, and reduced servicing costs, you are not comparing like for like.

And that's before we get to the CO2, NOx, asthma, noise etc issues* that will drive the change and justify the EV subsidy currently being given to early adopters.

*You were asking for a subsidy, but you already get a huge one by avoiding paying externality costs - and that's not a personal attack, I'm in the same boat owning an ICE, as are most drivers/households.

I think you may still be missing the point.....

fuel & repair costs are reasonably well spread out through the life of the car, but with an EV to be doable for anyone on a small motoring budget (irrespective of how essential a car is, to the likes of me it IS essential for getting to work as no practical public transport) it's the cost of buying the flippin' thing in the first place - it's the same reason why horses to cars took decades to happen, the cost of BUYING it is way more significant than the running costs.

AdrianC · 21 July 2018 at 8:55AM

GunJack wrote: »

fuel & repair costs are reasonably well spread out through the life of the car, but with an EV to be doable for anyone on a small motoring budget (irrespective of how essential a car is, to the likes of me it IS essential for getting to work as no practical public transport) it's the cost of buying the flippin' thing in the first place - it's the same reason why horses to cars took decades to happen, the cost of BUYING it is way more significant than the running costs.

It's entirely feasible that that isn't as big a problem as would be expected, simply because a very large percentage of the motoring public don't "buy" or "own" their cars. They lease them or PCP them.

That's the model that sees battery leases working well - and which fits well with swappable battery subscriptions. If a battery goes duff, then it simply gives a lower range before the next swap-out, which would be straightforward for the battery's control firmware to monitor and automatically flag. If a battery suddenly and dramatically goes duff, then it's not hard to see the subscription including roadside recovery/swap.

The downside, of course, is that while that works well for the new car market, it doesn't work at all well when you look at the trickle-down for the used market - which is what sets depreciation, which is what sets PCP/lease monthlies. Just look at the used value for leased-battery Zoes and the like, although it's entirely possible that if a larger proportion of the market moved over, that would become less of an issue.

You are likely to still have a considerably shorter lifecycle for the vehicle itself, though, which is environmentally terrible.

Martyn1981 · 21 July 2018 at 9:02AM

GunJack wrote: »

I think you may still be missing the point.....

fuel & repair costs are reasonably well spread out through the life of the car, but with an EV to be doable for anyone on a small motoring budget (irrespective of how essential a car is, to the likes of me it IS essential for getting to work as no practical public transport) it's the cost of buying the flippin' thing in the first place - it's the same reason why horses to cars took decades to happen, the cost of BUYING it is way more significant than the running costs.

I don't think I'm missing the point you are trying to make at all.

Let me just check, you want to only compare the cost of purchase since the cost of ownership favours the EV and 'destroys' your argument, isn't that your point?

Edit - BTW, I think you are the second person to claim the change took decades (plural) so to stop that claim from growing, perhaps you could watch the 1st minute of Tony Seba's presentation, showing the Easter Parade on 5th Ave New York in 1900 with hundreds of horse drawn buggies and one car, then the photo from 1913 with one horse and hundreds of cars.

Perhaps you (or Adrian) will want to argue the semantics of decades and 13yrs (being more than one decade), but hopefully the point, regarding disruptions when they hit the start of that 'S' curve is obvious.

Tony Seba: Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation

Electric cars

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