Correction in progress!
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Down Jones on 9th November 23,461.
Dow Jones on 9th Feb 23,860.
Ftse 100 on 1st December 7300.
Ftse 100 0n 09th Feb 7142.
Of course this could be the start of any correction; as could have happened a month ago, or will happen at a point in the future.
Let's not let the facts get in the way of any internet based hysteria now, eh!
Right, it is always worth putting movements into a longer term context, but it's quite factual that the market has corrected downwards since the euphoria around US tax cuts etc that came to a head subsequent to the 9 November or 1 December dates you picked. The FTSE hasn't dropped from 'just' 7300 but from almost 7800, in under a month.
You could say "it's not really a correction just perhaps the start of a correction", or whatever else, but the reality is that is has pulled back from where it was and corrected to a level that the market feels a bit happier with than the previous heady heights.
If you look at Bitcoin, one coin was about six thousand quid in November and it is still about six thousand quid now. But it would be pretty laughable to say to anyone in bitcoin circles that there hadn't been a recent extreme correction (given the price went to about £15k not long ago)
With hindsight in a few years time we might be saying that today is a temporary and artificially wrong price and actually the price a few weeks ago was more correct. Who knows what we'll see in the meantime...0 -
BananaRepublic wrote: »Some people here do not understand what a correction is:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp
Okay, technically a correction in US markets, with regard to FTSE 100 maybe you need to get your calculator out again
Not seeking an argument, (with a total stranger on t'internet), puzzled by the enthusiasm of you "filling my SIPP" on the basis of markets being where they are just a few months ago, (post #194).
As others have said, this is no big deal, (?yet). 0 -
Whether markets fall further or start to rise again soon, I assume markets will eventually get back to and surpass the previous highs, as over the long term markets should continue to rise. Is the reason for the correction just the fact that they had risen so fast over the last couple of years?bowlhead99 wrote: »You could say "it's not really a correction just perhaps the start of a correction", or whatever else, but the reality is that is has pulled back from where it was and corrected to a level that the market feels a bit happier with than the previous heady heights.0 -
That's always been the case in the past so no reason to think that capitalism is suddenly broken. The definition of 'long term' will of course vary from person to person.Whether markets fall further or start to rise again soon, I assume markets will eventually get back to and surpass the previous highs, as over the long term markets should continue to rise.Is the reason for the correction just the fact that they had risen so fast over the last couple of years?
It is as simple as, based on all current known, and projected, and unknown but anticipated events, and all the estimates of profits and growth and asset values at various future dates for a whole set of different businesses and industries, and the pricing of all the other alternative asset classes adjusted for risk (and people's appetite to save their money and defer investment or buy different types of things with their money, etc) the value of things in a particular market as determined by the weighted average way the money is currently deployed in the market, is now 'x".
If last week or last month or last year, that value was some higher number: "y" , then the market price will need to correct downwards to get there.
In any given hour, day, week, month, year, decade, there can be a lot of different triggers or catalysts for the prevailing market price to move to a different price. Certainly if a price has moved rapidly in one direction it is possible that it might move particularly rapidly in the opposite direction if investors determine a mistake had been made and the new consensus indicates there are some significant reasons why the price should only be X instead of Y. Generally when the market has figured out a price on which it's confident, it will try to get there as quickly as possible. Whereas if the market is not very confident that a price of "y" is wrong, it won't move very quickly towards "x".0 -
Okay, technically a correction in US markets, with regard to FTSE 100 maybe you need to get your calculator out again
Not seeking an argument, (with a total stranger on t'internet), puzzled by the enthusiasm of you "filling my SIPP" on the basis of markets being where they are just a few months ago, (post #194).
As others have said, this is no big deal, (?yet).
Without meaning to be confrontational - you're a perfectly polite person - several market indices are down by more than 10% including the Nikkei and the Hong Kong Hang Send, so we are certainly seeing a significant correction. You are of course correct about the FTSE 100, although only just. However, saying this this is only the start of a correction is, dare I say, and I don't mean to be a meany mean meany, not entirely accurate? Perhaps?
Yes I have said several times that this is not yet a big deal, time will tell if this is a ripple or a tsunami.
Regarding my SIPP contributions, I am putting large sums in to my SIPP each year to get back as much tax as possible, so for me a market dip is good news. Yes of course as the markets stand it's not a big deal, but it might be helpful, depending on how it pans out.0 -
bowlhead99 wrote: »That's always been the case in the past so no reason to think that capitalism is suddenly broken. The definition of 'long term' will of course vary from person to person.
It is as simple as, based on all current known, and projected, and unknown but anticipated events, and all the estimates of profits and growth and asset values at various future dates for a whole set of different businesses and industries, and the pricing of all the other alternative asset classes adjusted for risk (and people's appetite to save their money and defer investment or buy different types of things with their money, etc) the value of things in a particular market as determined by the weighted average way the money is currently deployed in the market, is now 'x".
If last week or last month or last year, that value was some higher number: "y" , then the market price will need to correct downwards to get there.
In any given hour, day, week, month, year, decade, there can be a lot of different triggers or catalysts for the prevailing market price to move to a different price. Certainly if a price has moved rapidly in one direction it is possible that it might move particularly rapidly in the opposite direction if investors determine a mistake had been made and the new consensus indicates there are some significant reasons why the price should only be X instead of Y. Generally when the market has figured out a price on which it's confident, it will try to get there as quickly as possible. Whereas if the market is not very confident that a price of "y" is wrong, it won't move very quickly towards "x".
They are saying it is because of the expected interest rate rises. But a Google will find the views of the experts, I'm just a bystander. 0 -
A 10% fall is generally defined as a correction, so the DOW is there now. There was massive selling by funds at the close yesterday which is being interpreted as 'capitulation'. I don't buy it. Economic fundamentals have to kick in soon and the level of US debt, QE, BREXIT, inflation, rising interest rates etc are going to mean bigger falls...........call me Dr Doom. So maybe that DB pension option is looking a bit more tempting today?“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”0
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BananaRepublic wrote: »Are you sure? I suspect you have not been investing for long, less than 10 years anyway. This is at the moment no more than a wobble.
Yes, I keep looking hopefully, but its not been enough of a drop to enthuse me about moving any of my relatively small cash balance yet. It may come, or not.0 -
BananaRepublic wrote: »Without meaning to be confrontational - you're a perfectly polite person - several market indices are down by more than 10% including the Nikkei and the Hong Kong Hang Send, so we are certainly seeing a significant correction. You are of course correct about the FTSE 100, although only just. However, saying this this is only the start of a correction is, dare I say, and I don't mean to be a meany mean meany, not entirely accurate? Perhaps?
Yes I have said several times that this is not yet a big deal, time will tell if this is a ripple or a tsunami.
Regarding my SIPP contributions, I am putting large sums in to my SIPP each year to get back as much tax as possible, so for me a market dip is good news. Yes of course as the markets stand it's not a big deal, but it might be helpful, depending on how it pans out.
We're probably not really saying different things
My sentiment was (and I'm not all that sure why i bothered ), that there seemed to be a huge amount of traffic and (mild) angst on the board about something that we should all expect, and quite often welcome, given individual circumstances.
I didn't think it mattered too much with regard to that point whether it was/wasn't an actual correction or not!
I'm not bothered about being "put right" on the matter!
I wish you well BR, often find your posts (and educational links) helpful. 0
This discussion has been closed.
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