Drawdown Strategy

I think I might have a tricky problem; here's the details:

1. 150K cash to invest.
2. Defined benefit pension active but insufficient to meet my needs until SPA in 9 years time.
3, I have accumulated around 2/3's of UK state pension rights and full rights to New Zealand state superanuation (NZ super kicks starts in 9 years, UK in 11 years).
4. I estimate that I will need 10K cash each year to top up pension; by SPA in 9 years I no longer expect to need the top up.
5. I would like to grow the capital as far as possible so that there is a decent amount remaining at SPA as a contingency pot (or as scope for some extended travel etc).

The real problem I have is that I need to manage this whilst living between NZ and the UK - currently tax resident in UK. Plan is to regain NZ residency in advance of NZ SPA (say 8 years from now) to collect NZ super (this is currently around 10K sterling equivalent per annum).

New Zealand regards overseas investments (ie shares, trusts, etc) in a peculiar manner for tax. The rules are complex but the simplest current calculation is 6% of investment value at start of year is deemed to be income and taxable at nominal rates. In other words you pay tax on your overseas investments whether you've realised any actual income or not, every year you hold them. This would take me into the highest NZ tax band of 33% and my simple maths says I lose around 2% of any achieved growth. The silver lining is no capital gains tax when cashing out but the whole thing makes me weep and I'd much rather avoid.

So my thinking is that I might have to view the UK investment window as an 8 year period after which I'd cash up, convert to dollars and sink the remaining capital into NZ and start again.

Just to add to the mess there is a possibility that we move back to the UK at some point after the UK SPA is reached (minimum of 2 years after the NZ SPA).

I guess the real problem is the relatively short 8 year window and the possibility of finding myself in a market trough when I need to cash up to transfer to NZ. I could always just accept the NZ tax situation as a short term issue but there's no guarantee that we will move back to the UK and the trough might go on for some time all the while I'm paying tax on nominal value every year.

Unless anyone can suggest better I think I'm looking for a drawdown strategy that generates 10K cash every year over 8 years at which point all investments to be cashed in.

Any thoughts?

Joe

Comments

  • £10,000 a year from £150,000 is 6.7% ... there's no safe way to get that as income, so I'd suggest splitting the pot in two: one part cash (or similar), which is to be spent steadily over the next 8 years; and the other part to be invested, which will both generate some income and hopefully grow.

    E.g. keep £70,000 in cash, and spend that over 8 years, i.e. £8,750 per year; and invest the other £80,000, which needs to generate an income of £1,250 per year, which is only 1.6% — which is the sort of level of income you might get by picking investments without aiming for a high income at all.

    After 8 years, hopefully the £80,000 invested would have grown (as well as producing an income); though you'd be lucky for it to have grown all the way back to £150,000.

    Or you could push for a bit more income from investments. E.g. keep £50,000 as cash, spending £6,250 of it each year; and invest the other £100,000, which needs to generate £3,750 income a year, which is 3.75% — which is not outrageously high for income-oriented investments.

    To get an idea of realistic income levels, compare the Legal & General Multi Index Fund range, which is not income-oriented, with the (less frequently mentioned) Legal & General Multi Index Income Fund range, which is.

    What kind of risk level would be suitable for the invested part of the capital would depend (among other things) on how long-term it is. E.g. how likely are you to spend a lot of it soon after SPA? How much of it is more for long-term contingency?

    To make it practical to cash it all in and reinvest in NZ, put as much as possible of the invested part in S&S ISAs, and keep putting more of it in each year by Bed&ISA-ing the unwrapped investments, while also realizing capital gains (when you have them) up to just under the annual CGT allowance. Then probably you'd be able to cash the lot in after 8 years without paying any CGT. (You'd only end up paying CGT if your investments had done very well.)

    All this assumes you don't have other investments using your future ISA & CGT allowances — which may be 100% wrong.

    I've no idea what vehicles are available for investing in NZ, but broadly you'd look for something equivalent to what you had in the UK at that point (assuming the latter still seemed appropriate). The way to look at it is that it doesn't matter if markets are down at that point, because you'd be selling at a low price but then buying back something very similar also at a low price, so there is no real loss from the switch to NZ.

    I've also no idea whether you should be using pensions instead of ISAs/unwrapped. Partly because I don't know how that would work with NZ.
  • Voyager2002
    Voyager2002 Posts: 15,281 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Post First Anniversary Combo Breaker
    Do you have the option of investing in New Zealand now?
  • joeNZ
    joeNZ Posts: 18 Forumite
    First Anniversary First Post Name Dropper
    @heart to heart

    Thanks for the very helpful reply.

    Your point about cashing in and reinvesting when the market down is a good insight. The NZ investment market is limited and may react differently but that's ok. I guess my choice of UK investment vehicles for the initial 8 year period should take care with regard to exit charges.

    In terms of risk on the remaining pot at SPA I guess I could cope with something like a 30% loss if I had to. We have two properties and one will get cashed up at some point so a limited negative outcome would not be a complete disaster.

    I take on board the need to take my annual cgt allowance as a when as well.

    I had been looking at something like mixing a lower risk Vanguard Lifestyle tracker with something that might be more of a bet on US tech for the investment pot.

    Any suggestions as to hold the cash component?

    It just feels wrong to stick it in the bank for 8 years. I had thought of fixed term bonds allied with 2 years of cash reserve in the bank (maybe even less since I have the capacity to constrain ongoing living costs to the extent that I could live off DB pension if necessary).

    Also, in terms of market entry for the investment pot. Lets say I take 100K to be that component - any recommendations as to staggering entry. At the moment I plan to enter with a minimum of 20K to eat ISA allowance before April but feel I should maybe spread the remaining 80K over the next 12 months during opportune dips?

    cheers

    Joe
  • joeNZ
    joeNZ Posts: 18 Forumite
    First Anniversary First Post Name Dropper
    @Voyager2002

    Yes I do have the option of entering the NZ market now as a non resident but I'd need to research this carefully. I'm wary of non resident rules and tax implications that may impact.

    One option was to buy another property for our personal use or jump into BTL in NZ but wary of UK CGT should we eventually cash up and return to UK. Haven't thought this through properly.

    Joe
  • As as rule of thumb, equities might fall up to about 50% in a crash. So if you can stomach up to a 30% fall, then Vanguard Lifestrategy 60% would be the best fit of the VLS range. That's if it's held by itself; if combined with a US tech investment, you'd need a lower-risk VLS fund to compensate for the higher-risk tech (the latter could fall well over 50% in a crash, since it's not just 100% equities but also a single sector).

    I'm not a big fan of overweighting (US) tech when it's this far into a bull run. It's not so much that it could end badly (though it could) as that there's plenty of tech already in tracker funds (since the bull run has been dominated by a few mega caps). But opinions can differ on this.

    VLS is not income-oriented, and yields something like 1.6%. (US tech will often yield less, or even 0%.) If you invest as much as £100,000 in something with that relatively low yield, you will be about £2,000 a year short on target income. Now, if you're happy to harvest capital gains if they happen, and if they don't, choose between trimming spending and selling some investments at a loss, that's up to you. But do think about what you'd do if there's a crash and the recovery doesn't come quickly.

    Staging investments over up to a year is perfectly OK. Logically, since we expect markets to go up generally, and can't predict the ups and downs along the way, it will more often than not be better to get fully invested as soon as possible. But that can be psychologically hard to do. So a bit of staging may give you a plan that you can more comfortably carry out.

    For cash, a mixture of some instant access and some fixed term accounts (of different durations) is the obvious place to start. If you want to push for a little more return, you could look at corporate bond funds/ETFs, but stick to investment-grade (or nearly all investment-grade), because the high-yield/junk bonds behave too similarly to equities. Investment-grade corporate bonds can fall in value (unlike cash), but not nearly as dramatically as equities can.
  • joeNZ
    joeNZ Posts: 18 Forumite
    First Anniversary First Post Name Dropper
    @heart to heart

    I think the initial 8 year consumption widow is relatively straight forward in that I have a decent idea of the likely lifestyle and cash needed. Your advice has helped me work through how this should be handled.

    I'm now starting to think more about what life will require beyond the SPA and this gets more difficult to gauge. My initial thoughts were that my overall spending would slowly drop but I think this may be incorrect. In fact enjoying the years between 65 and 75 may actually demand a significant overall up-spend. I may need to trim cash consumption before 65 to enable this but need to do some modelling to think this through.

    My thoughts about post 75 are also developing. I think activity and spend must reduce by then to match cash available from pensions but unexpected events/issue have to be covered. I can't imagine that I'd be happy with less than the equivalent of 50K safely in the bank at that point. I guess it helps to view this element in the context of a 20 year growth vehicle.

    Psychologically I think I might need to look at each of these three areas independently and fit a strategy round each of them.
This discussion has been closed.
Meet your Ambassadors

Categories

  • All Categories
  • 343.2K Banking & Borrowing
  • 250.1K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
  • 449.7K Spending & Discounts
  • 235.2K Work, Benefits & Business
  • 608K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
  • 173K Life & Family
  • 247.9K Travel & Transport
  • 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
  • 15.9K Discuss & Feedback
  • 15.1K Coronavirus Support Boards