Premium Bonds Article Discussion Area

Aegis · 1 March 2009 at 5:59PM

foreignshopper wrote: »

Continuation of above...........

I've experimented with differing sized blocks from £100 to £5000 and have found that generally the £1000 and £2000 are the most effective.

In 2008 my syndicate won 39 prizes totalling 2700, a return of around 4.5% which compares favourably with anything you can get from banks.

Another tactic: If, for example, you have £10000 to invest consider making 5 applications of £2000 but buy them all at the same time. You're likely, tho' it's not guaranteed, to get a block of 10000 numbers but it will be split into 5 sub-blocks. You can therefore monitor each sub-block's performance and in due course retain or sell them according to performance.

To those cynics who say they never win I say don't just buy bonds then sit & wait for the cheques to roll in. Take positive action to weed out the poor-performing ones and you'll 'massage' the odds in your favour.

It's random. All you do by "weeding out" the unfavourable numbers is waste entry into at least one draw.

foreignshopper · 1 March 2009 at 6:11PM

Aegis wrote: »

It's random. All you do by "weeding out" the unfavourable numbers is waste entry into at least one draw.

Quite right as I acknowledge above - but overall it has the right effect.

Get rid of the non-performing ones and replace them.

If you employed someone who was not pulling their weight would you continue to employ them ? I don't think so.

Believe me it does work and I've been doing it for a long time.

Aegis · 1 March 2009 at 6:53PM

foreignshopper wrote: »

Quite right as I acknowledge above - but overall it has the right effect.

Get rid of the non-performing ones and replace them.

If you employed someone who was not pulling their weight would you continue to employ them ? I don't think so.

Believe me it does work and I've been doing it for a long time.

Sorry, but if it's random, then all bonds will pull their weight given enough time. You can't manipulate the system if it's random, which it is. Any positive effects that you think you can get out of the churning of bonds is simply a case of confirmation bias.

shrewsaver · 1 March 2009 at 6:54PM

After reading this thread and looking on NS&I's website I have found out that you can now put into these premium bonds each month by standing order so I have just set it up as up to recently I have only had £200 invested in these and got a nil return.

Midnight_Cowboy_2 · 1 March 2009 at 10:13PM

shrewsaver wrote: »

After reading this thread and looking on NS&I's website I have found out that you can now put into these premium bonds each month by standing order so I have just set it up as up to recently I have only had £200 invested in these and got a nil return.

Yes, adding regularly is a sensible way to build up a holding. £200 is too small an amount to expect much of a return; £1000 would seem a sensible minimum. With a holding that size, and at the current prize rate of 1.8%, with average luck you could expect a £50 win once every 3 years (plus you're in the draw for the big prizes, of course).

foreignshopper · 2 March 2009 at 9:01AM

Aegis wrote: »

Sorry, but if it's random, then all bonds will pull their weight given enough time. You can't manipulate the system if it's random, which it is. Any positive effects that you think you can get out of the churning of bonds is simply a case of confirmation bias.

Yes, again you are right in general terms and I'm certainly not arguing that the draws are not random - yet continual monitoring over a long period does show some bias. I'm fully aware that it's not the actual bond numbers which are 'drawn' but a random number which is then 'compared' to the list of actual bonds so I certainly can't begin to explain it.

I think tho' that your statement that "all bonds will pull their weight given enough time" is flawed, otherwise why would so many people on here state they have held bonds for 10, 20 or even more years & never won anything? Maybe the 'given enough time' is true but I for one can't afford to wait for 20 or more years in that hope.

The facts do outweigh the theory. I can point you (with actual evidence) to bonds I have held or still do hold which have given a great return and others which have done precisely nothing. These are proven facts remember so I don't really see where your theory "all bonds will pull their weight given enough time" sits with that.

Paul_Herring · 2 March 2009 at 9:35AM

I certainly can't begin to explain it.

I can. It's called randomness, and the human ability to spot 'patterns' in random things that aren't there.

msxRog · 2 March 2009 at 6:10PM

ZED wrote: »

I have two premium bonds, bought during October and September 1969. Some 40 years on and I still haven't 'won' anything at all with either bond. Pah!

Well, i have done a little better. I have about six bonds - bought in 1969, 1970 and 1972 i believe.

In those days individual bonds didnt cost as much as they do now. I received no "winnings" for many years, but imagine my initial (short lived) delight - but then deep depression - when in 1991 I received notification of a prize - but it turned out to be just a mere £50, after all those years of getting nothing!! Since that date, i have not received anything - although have moved home more than 14 years ago now, so will perhaps have to get around to informing NS&I of my change of address.... if there is any chance i have won something
Mind you, I dont think i would be that interested in a prize less than £1000 now - holding bonds continuously for nearly 40 years should count for something!!!!

I blame the lack of prizes on those folk who buy up tens of thousands of pounds worth of bonds - if everyone just owned a few, we would all win more regularly

:rolleyes: (only joking on that last bit)

North_Sea_Bubble · 2 March 2009 at 7:43PM

foreignshopper wrote: »

Quite right as I acknowledge above - but overall it has the right effect.

Get rid of the non-performing ones and replace them.

If you employed someone who was not pulling their weight would you continue to employ them ? I don't think so.

Believe me it does work and I've been doing it for a long time.

Niceone!!!

Aegis · 2 March 2009 at 11:10PM

Paul_Herring wrote: »

I can. It's called randomness, and the human ability to spot 'patterns' in random things that aren't there.

Yep, that and confirmation bias, something I alluded to in my previous post.

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