How much have you made since investing in VLS/FTSE Global All Cap?

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  • Alexland wrote: »
    I once read interesting research into platform fund trades that suggested that DIY investors often do around 1/3 worse than their fund average long term returns not just because of platform costs but because they tend to buy and sell at the wrong times.

    Alex


    I think that is why a good approach is to buy and hold until such times you need to draw an income from investments and stay invested rather than timing.



    I don't invest in stocks with the view to taking the capital out but with the view to future income streams from dividends and sensible withdrawal rates in the future.
  • redlfc
    redlfc Posts: 101 Forumite
    I think that is why a good approach is to buy and hold until such times you need to draw an income from investments and stay invested rather than timing.



    I don't invest in stocks with the view to taking the capital out but with the view to future income streams from dividends and sensible withdrawal rates in the future.

    the thing is how do you know when the right time is to withdraw - say youve been investing 20 years but are currently at a bad period where markets have taken a nosedive - are you not always at the perils of the market
  • coastline
    coastline Posts: 1,649 Forumite
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    The MSCI World , two VLS funds and a L & G fund all on one chart.
    VLS 100% has underperformed the MSCI world index partly due to the UK allocation it holds.
    VLS 60% and L&G Multi Index 5 have produced similar returns. Both funds are regularly highlighted on this forum.
    What can be seen is performance over the last 6 months which includes the recent downturn in the markets.
    MSCI has fallen 3.7% and VLS 60% 2.2% so if we were to multiply those figures by 10 we would get major crash levels , 37% and 22%.
    Just shows how volatile it can be even in defensive funds.

    https://www2.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx?typeCode=NM990100,FACDV,FACDQ,FJ84X
  • redlfc
    redlfc Posts: 101 Forumite
    What would be interesting to know is if there are people who have passively invested in low cost global trackers/index funds for 10+ years and have made a loss. Or even more so for 20+ years

    I completely understanding of the risk in the markets and the dips but my understanding is long term they should beat cash ISAs and the like. Were I to check my investment in 10-15 years or so and see I had less than what I had put in - I think I would be disapppointed
  • A_T
    A_T Posts: 959 Forumite
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    redlfc wrote: »
    What would be interesting to know is if there are people who have passively invested in low cost global trackers/index funds for 10+ years and have made a loss. Or even more so for 20+ years

    There's unlikely to be anyone who has made a loss investing in a global index tracker for 10+ years.
  • coastline
    coastline Posts: 1,649 Forumite
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    redlfc wrote: »
    What would be interesting to know is if there are people who have passively invested in low cost global trackers/index funds for 10+ years and have made a loss. Or even more so for 20+ years

    I completely understanding of the risk in the markets and the dips but my understanding is long term they should beat cash ISAs and the like. Were I to check my investment in 10-15 years or so and see I had less than what I had put in - I think I would be disapppointed

    First chart shows the market downturns over the last century and its possible to be involved in two recessions in a 10-15 year span.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvhGM0iXgAAnKDl.jpg

    Cash investors have faired poorly since the financial crisis. The link between base rates and inflation was clearly broken in 2008.

    https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/inflation-interest-rates.png

    Global trackers as far as I understand have become more popular since year 2000 onwards. Set the chart below to various 10 year periods to give an example of historic returns.

    https://www2.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx?typeCode=NM990100
  • takesyourchances
    takesyourchances Posts: 828 Forumite
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    edited 12 January 2019 at 4:27PM
    redlfc wrote: »
    the thing is how do you know when the right time is to withdraw - say youve been investing 20 years but are currently at a bad period where markets have taken a nosedive - are you not always at the perils of the market


    Nobody knows that. But you would hope in 20 years time, you should have come through some up's and downs with some growth overall in a diversified portfolio in a long term timescale.



    You can only withdraw and deal with the market conditions at your time of needing to withdraw some income, the outcome at whatever point that will be is totally unknown. So I will deal with that at the time so to speak.



    If you invest in income producting investments too, you should have some form of dividend income and if re-investing to that point of taking it over a long timescale that income stream should grow from compounding.



    Personally I will stick to a strategy and not worry now what will be at the point in time I would like to withdraw some income, as I simply don't know what the market will be then and either does anyone but over a long time frame and keeping invested I will hope now for the best.
  • System
    System Posts: 178,093 Community Admin
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    edited 12 January 2019 at 6:47PM
    Given how closely my VLS80 fund tracks the Global All Cap, falling and rising at the same times by roughly the same amount with a fraction of a percent difference...

    I opened it 2 years ago on Monday. Fed it almost every month with £200 with a few lump sums as and when regular savings accounts matured with nothing to spend that on.

    Paid in a total of £12863 after fees, it is worth as I type £12,827, an overall loss of £36.

    However that doesn't tell the full story. Even though I made a loss the very first £500 I opened it with has made 8% overall to date in 2 years, almost three times what it would have sat in my Santander account. Overall:

    Payment 1 £500 8% up
    Payment 2 £100 8% up
    Payment 3 £100 6% up
    Payement 4 £100 4% up
    Payment 5 £200 4.6% up
    Payment 6 £2000, 5.6% up
    and so on and so on.....

    However its been going the other way with what I've paid in some of 2018 including a 1.8% drop on the £2500 lump sum I paid in in May. I'm not worried though because over the 9 years the fund has existed the overall gains are 90% and I'm not going to be touching the money for 15/20 years. BUT as the lump sum which has lost money came from a regular saver account that paid 5% I've not actually lost out on that either as the interest it earned in the regular saver account has covered the losses it has made in the S&S ISA.
  • redpete
    redpete Posts: 4,692 Forumite
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    redlfc wrote: »
    What would be interesting to know is if there are people who have passively invested in low cost global trackers/index funds for 10+ years and have made a loss. Or even more so for 20+ years

    I completely understanding of the risk in the markets and the dips but my understanding is long term they should beat cash ISAs and the like. Were I to check my investment in 10-15 years or so and see I had less than what I had put in - I think I would be disapppointed

    Individual experience from a tiny sample size will be no help whatsoever in you deciding whether to invest.

    Better to get monthly values of an index into a spreadsheet and play with the numbers to see,, for example, the 10 year performance of £1000 invested each month.
    loose does not rhyme with choose but lose does and is the word you meant to write.
  • AnotherJoe
    AnotherJoe Posts: 19,622 Forumite
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    redlfc wrote: »
    What would be interesting to know is if there are people who have passively invested in low cost global trackers/index funds for 10+ years and have made a loss. Or even more so for 20+ years

    I completely understanding of the risk in the markets and the dips but my understanding is long term they should beat cash ISAs and the like. Were I to check my investment in 10-15 years or so and see I had less than what I had put in - I think I would be disapppointed

    And as said, you can work that out by looking at historical performance data there's no need to ask anyone. Plus there are plenty of studies you could find showing passive versus active strategies no need to rely on a handful of anecdotal answers here.
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