Next recession, trade wars, up to 50% portfolio losses

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  • ANGLICANPAT
    ANGLICANPAT Posts: 1,444
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    edited 7 April 2018 at 11:00PM
    JohnRo wrote: »
    It's an unfolding scandal and one the FT and Telegraph amongst others have been reporting on since early this year. I'm reasonably confident they aren't on Putin's payroll?


    The sudden escalation of the situation hasnt really been picked up by the UK media yet. People are only remembering Neil Mitchells case got thrown out of court last year. Now his extensive research and tenacity has finally provided the vital evidence he needed hence the full interview on RT a few days ago.. I dont believe that what he's saying is influenced by the Russians , although if we are in the poo, Im sure RT is delighted to be broadcasting it .If Neil Mitchells information is correct, no-one can deny it does sound worrying .

    Lets say it IS all true and as big as the article makes it sound, how much would it impact on the economy and our investments etc?
  • JohnRo
    JohnRo Posts: 2,887
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    There's no doubt RT are making hay with it, they wouldn't be doing their job properly if they weren't but that doesn't negate the story or mean it's not a serious matter. Anyone who can't entertain a channel like RT because it's propaganda is clearly oblivious to the irony.

    It provides a much needed counter to some of the good wholesome western propaganda and lopsided views at ten folks are expected to swallow whole, as well as some events that are ignored completely. I don't watch it very often but not allergic to it either in moderation.

    It sounds like the same problems are repeating, omnipotent bankers, competent regulators being bought off and brought in house etc. the whole cesspit hasn't changed much if at all since the last time they brought the financial world to it's knees, held the economy to ransom and then walked off with a pile of loot.

    As for impact, who knows, it'll likely take a US investigation to get to the bottom of it, this country is institutionally corrupt to the point it's difficult to know which way is up, they'll probably just end up paying a huge [strike]fine[/strike] bribe and carry on like all the other banks do that are too big to fail.

    I don't think it'll cause a problem to the global economy in itself since the GRG is no longer around but they're still at it under a different guise so who knows. It'll probably end up being played out as a PPI v2 scandal or something but it's going to really sting the 'UK taxpayer' one way or another if the apparent scale of it is anything like accurate.

    What's really needed is the same thing that was needed in 2008, fat chance of that.
    'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB
  • RobStaffs
    RobStaffs Posts: 308
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    I still think the FTSE will be closer to 8000 by the end of the year.
  • Glen_Clark
    Glen_Clark Posts: 4,397 Forumite
    IanManc wrote: »
    Linking the collapse of RBS and its business practises with Hillsborough - where 96 people were unlawfully killed - seems very odd at least, and at worst is offensive.

    People have been driven to suicide by the Royal Bank
    According to Branson's biography, Virgin nearly went bust when Nat West suddenly decided to call in its debts. He spent a weekend frantically borrowing money from other sources, if he hadn't suucceeded Nat West would have sunk Virgin like thousands of others.
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
  • ProDave
    ProDave Posts: 3,660
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    Reading this thread with interest.

    This is the FTSE100 for the last 20 years

    chart.jsproto_large.chart?INDEX=UKX&XAXISCLOSECOL=0&LINE_WIDTH=1&MOUNTAIN_COLOR1=a5b9d8&MOUNTAIN_COLOR2=c1cfe5&MOUNTAIN_COLOR3=c1cfe5&MOUNTAIN_COLOR4=ffffff&ID_NOTATION_COLOR1=25456b&WIDTH=728&HEIGHT=364&DATE_START=1998-04-09&DATE_END=2018-04-08

    Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.

    For me (with some cash in a SIPP and a 5 year timescale) now is not the time to be buying. The bull market has gone on too long for this cycle already and it appears to be turning. It might well only be another small drop like 2015 and it will rise further, but for me the risk of falls looks higher than the risk of gains so I am keeping my cash.

    My view is perhaps swayed by the fact I struck lucky and sold my investments in order to transfer my pension to another provider and I by sheer luck did so very close to the top. Had I still been invested it would now be worth less than the cash that is sitting there. So I don't want to do anything to risk losing the previous gains I have locked in.
  • ColdIron
    ColdIron Posts: 8,791
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    ProDave wrote: »
    Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.
    I suppose 20 years worth of dividends might have increased your total returns a smidgen?
  • jamei305
    jamei305 Posts: 635
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    ProDave wrote: »
    Reading this thread with interest.

    This is the FTSE100 for the last 20 years

    chart.jsproto_large.chart?INDEX=UKX&XAXISCLOSECOL=0&LINE_WIDTH=1&MOUNTAIN_COLOR1=a5b9d8&MOUNTAIN_COLOR2=c1cfe5&MOUNTAIN_COLOR3=c1cfe5&MOUNTAIN_COLOR4=ffffff&ID_NOTATION_COLOR1=25456b&WIDTH=728&HEIGHT=364&DATE_START=1998-04-09&DATE_END=2018-04-08

    Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.

    For me (with some cash in a SIPP and a 5 year timescale) now is not the time to be buying. The bull market has gone on too long for this cycle already and it appears to be turning. It might well only be another small drop like 2015 and it will rise further, but for me the risk of falls looks higher than the risk of gains so I am keeping my cash.

    My view is perhaps swayed by the fact I struck lucky and sold my investments in order to transfer my pension to another provider and I by sheer luck did so very close to the top. Had I still been invested it would now be worth less than the cash that is sitting there. So I don't want to do anything to risk losing the previous gains I have locked in.

    Your graph fails to take into account reinvested dividends.

    An FTSE 100 Acc fund would look like this in comparison:

    Capture3%20(2).JPG
  • dunstonh
    dunstonh Posts: 115,910
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    20 years is probably not a good guide either as you are starting with a crash near the start (and ignoring the 10 years of growth that took place before that). You are then including a major depression in the middle and ending on a correction.

    Any snapshot in time can be manipulated to say different things. Move that snapshot a few years earlier and you get a totally different picture.
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
  • IanManc
    IanManc Posts: 2,069
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    edited 8 April 2018 at 10:26AM
    JohnRo wrote: »
    There's no doubt RT are making hay with it, they wouldn't be doing their job properly if they weren't but that doesn't negate the story or mean it's not a serious matter. Anyone who can't entertain a channel like RT because it's propaganda is clearly oblivious to the irony.

    RT's job, and the reason that the Russian government fund it so heavily, is to undermine the West.

    I'm surprised that you don't understand that.

    The scandal at RBS has been rumbling on in the media for years - it hasn't just begun to be reported "since early this year". For example the unit within RBS which was supposed to be helping businesses that were in temporary financial trouble but which forced companies which were otherwise sound but had cashflow problems into bankruptcy because it made more money for RBS was highlighted by financial journalists and by the BBC on Moneybox on Radio 4 while it was happening.

    RT is adding nothing to the investigation of this story, just using it as propaganda. Anyone who is oblivious to that clearly doesn't understand very much at all.
  • ProDave
    ProDave Posts: 3,660
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    ^^ which highlights how much better you would have done by selling in April 2000, buying back in in April 2003, then selling in April 2008 and buying back in in April 2009

    It also highlights with a short term timescale (5 years) if you had bought in April 1998 and just held, then selling in April 2003 you would have lost at least 20% so over that particular 5 years, cash would have been better.

    All I am saying is NOW does not look to be optimal timing to buy in. Time will tell who is right.For me, we appear to be at or close to the top. I just want the crash to happen sooner, so there is still time to buy in and ride the recovery in my short timescale.
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