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Hi
As already mentioned there are plenty of times that having a car available adds convenience & saves time
HTH
Z
Absolutely true, but that has a value, and if that value is exceeded by savings (or lost savings), then people will change how they do things.
I'm sorry Z but I'm not with you on this one, I think that car-on-demand will rapidly remove 2nd (and later) cars from households, and of course those that are already marginal, just not happy with the cost of alternatives, very quickly.
I appreciate that waiting 5, 10 or 20 mins might be a pain, but for the majority of the time that is simply served by ordering before you need it, so no loss of time.
Once the 2nd car market goes, and general ownership drops slightly, the second hand car market will collapse, and more pressure will be applied to households 1st car.
For yourself, the value of keeping a vehicle may be worth it, as I'm sure it will for many others, but I suspect total personal ownership will fall dramatically.
But regardless, we'll see. The hardware is ready, though cars such as the Model 3 and Bolt are still expensive, and I seem to recall the Model 3 computer has 10 teraflop capability, so a bit more than the 8 Tony said would be needed.
What is now crucial is how the testing goes, as I mentioned in some US states or cities (can't recall) they are already being trialed, so it all depends on how fast they learn. Then we'll see what happens, but I suspect they'll be hitting our streets in 5yrs then the big disruption will start (or not), either way our car will be about done by then, so we'll be in a good position to watch and decide.
All the best.Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
HiMartyn1981 wrote: »... so it all depends on how fast they learn. ...
The issue here is that they don't learn ... they compare to a test example and when something non-standard comes along there's a risk of not having lines of code to respond ... there'll be a coded default routine, but it's likely that the best that can happen is an alternative solution/route is selected or the vehicle simply stops and refuses to do anything at all, in both cases a sensor history data dump being streamed back to a team of people to collate and code an appropriate 'intelligent' response ... the worst is that the non-standard situation doesn't register as something which needs any action, therefore possibly resulting in a serious accident before anyone is alerted to create the appropriate rules ...
As mentioned previously, I have direct experience with the type of technology which is being applied and have come across situations which were considered impossible by seriously good & leading systems analysts (from some of the most renowned technology companies in the world) resulting in many unforeseen issues, many of which only occurred after literally millions of cycles and tens-of-thousands of hours of operation ... it's also important to understand that in creating a process/situation based rule to apply under certain conditions, the sequence that a new rule is inserted into the the thousands of existing rules can also have consequences which may not become apparent for a considerable time .... as you say, we'll see, but don't expect me to play crash-test dummy any time soon just to make some cloud-based taxi company's business domination model successful ...
I agree that the initial target for vehicle reduction will be second vehicles ... but that in no way cuts the number of vehicles on the road by anything like 90% and the depreciation costs during periods of autonomous vehicle fleet inactivity needs to be reflected in the hire costs which adds a considerable sum to compare to driven vehicles which are heavily depreciated before they enter the taxi market ...
A further issue is the position of the current taxi drivers ... just look at the issues in London over a comparatively simple change like the introduction of Uber .... how many autonomous vehicles would you expect to see floating down the Thames courtesy of some disgruntled cockney cabbies with nothing other than the safety of their customers in mind ....
HTH
Z"We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
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Hi
The issue here is that they don't learn ... they compare to a test example and when something non-standard comes along there's a risk of not having lines of code to respond ... there'll be a coded default routine, but it's likely that the best that can happen is an alternative solution/route is selected or the vehicle simply stops and refuses to do anything at all, in both cases a sensor history data dump being streamed back to a team of people to collate and code an appropriate 'intelligent' response ... the worst is that the non-standard situation doesn't register as something which needs any action, therefore possibly resulting in a serious accident before anyone is alerted to create the appropriate rules ...
As mentioned previously, I have direct experience with the type of technology which is being applied and have come across situations which were considered impossible by seriously good & leading systems analysts (from some of the most renowned technology companies in the world) resulting in many unforeseen issues, many of which only occurred after literally millions of cycles and tens-of-thousands of hours of operation ... it's also important to understand that in creating a process/situation based rule to apply under certain conditions, the sequence that a new rule is inserted into the the thousands of existing rules can also have consequences which may not become apparent for a considerable time .... as you say, we'll see, but don't expect me to play crash-test dummy any time soon just to make some cloud-based taxi company's business domination model successful ...
I agree that the initial target for vehicle reduction will be second vehicles ... but that in no way cuts the number of vehicles on the road by anything like 90% and the depreciation costs during periods of autonomous vehicle fleet inactivity needs to be reflected in the hire costs which adds a considerable sum to compare to driven vehicles which are heavily depreciated before they enter the taxi market ...
A further issue is the position of the current taxi drivers ... just look at the issues in London over a comparatively simple change like the introduction of Uber .... how many autonomous vehicles would you expect to see floating down the Thames courtesy of some disgruntled cockney cabbies with nothing other than the safety of their customers in mind ....
HTH
Z
There is a vid of a tesla on autopilot where there are roadworks. There are yellow dashed lane marker lines indicating that each lane should move one to the right (it is in the US) but the original white line lane dividers continue straight on. In the left hand most lane there is then a concrete barrier that starts to the left and gradually covers the whole lane to protect the workers - a fairly typical roadworks situation.
The tesla continues to follow the much more prominent white lane marker line rather than the hard to see yellow roadwork markings and hits the concrete barrier. Ouch.I think....0 -
WE do 95% of our miles in one car, however we have a second one for:
2 weeks holiday in the summer when we need a bigger car with a longer range
the odd journey every 2-3 months where we go outside the range of our other car
the odd journey every 1-2 months where we need to carry more people or bigger stuff than our other car can
for a few hours each week when our kids all have activities in different directions
Doing the maths, hiring/taxis costs similar to having a second car (of the pre-depreciated type) but is much less convenient so we have the second car.
Car as a service is unlikely to be any cheaper than hiring for the holiday and long trips but might mean that for the two cars needed moments an autonomous car would be cheaper than a cab but I suspect the total saving would be unlikely to make us switch from an owned second car model.
The first car gets much more use and does all the 'drop of a hat' journeys and thus it is unclear whether car as a service that was instantaneous enough not to be a real downside would be a lot cheaper as I can't see locally that there would be many with a usage pattern that would be complimentary to ours.I think....0 -
Doing the maths, hiring/taxis costs similar to having a second car (of the pre-depreciated type) but is much less convenient so we have the second car.
I suspect the maths will be similar for many households, millions of households. When/if the taxi cost falls by 90%, then things will change significantly.
I'm only guessing, but perhaps a low mileage second car is £2.5k per year. £1k petrol, £1k service/mot/maintenance/depreciation, £0.5k insurance and VED.
So if a car-on-demand cost £1k pa, it may be cheaper even than buying an older EV due to the fixed costs of a low use vehicle.
I think we need planning permission if we extend forward, but perhaps in 10-20 years we'll all start having front extensions!Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
No idea if this is good or bad news? It's not exactly G&E either, but it is low carbon.
Korean energy firm rescues UK's Moorside nuclear power projectAs well as having to clear regulatory hurdles, the Koreans are also likely to have to negotiate with the government for a guaranteed price for power from the Moorside plant.
That process took EDF several years for Hinkley and resulted in a contract that ensures the French will get £92.50 per megawatt hour, or around twice the wholesale price, for 35 years. The UK’s spending watchdog has called the project “risky and expensive”.
The price of state support for offshore windfarms has since dropped to a record low of £62.14 per MWh on average, leading one top German energy firm to say nuclear can no longer compete on price.
A source close to the NuGen project said they accepted that whatever price the Koreans secured with the government, it would have to be “significantly below” what was agreed for Hinkley.
Well, it couldn't be more, could it?Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
HiMartyn1981 wrote: »No idea if this is good or bad news? It's not exactly G&E either, but it is low carbon.
Korean energy firm rescues UK's Moorside nuclear power project
Well, it couldn't be more, could it?
I suppose that they're talking about South Korea, the ambiguity could well have @POTUS telling millions of loyal twitterati that the UK should be added to the axis of evil just at the time of year that some of the warmer southern states start to look appealing to many for some comfortable sun-worship and a more than a little overindulgence in BBQ'd racks of ribs in some smokey steakhouse or other ...
HTH
Z"We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle0 -
Hi
I suppose that they're talking about South Korea, the ambiguity could well have @POTUS telling millions of loyal twitterati that the UK should be added to the axis of evil just at the time of year that some of the warmer southern states start to look appealing to many for some comfortable sun-worship and a more than a little overindulgence in BBQ'd racks of ribs in some smokey steakhouse or other ...
HTH
Z
Nah, you've totally underestimated the abilities of Tory Ministers, there's no way they'd make a mistake like that, they know exactly which Korea will offer the most lucrative directorships for retired ministers.
If not they'll simply go for the one that has decided to give up on nuclear generation (as too expensive and risky) once they've completed their last two reactors.
Plus you're being too hard on Trump, after all, both Korea's want to export nuclear energy, plus the two together look a bit like an arm bent at the elbow, making them hard to differentiate for him from his !!!!.Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
UK could reach 12 GW storage capacity within five years, report findsAccording to the report, the U.K. could have 12 GW of subsidy-free battery storage deployed nationwide by 2021 if the government can learn the lessons of the solar industry’s growth trajectory by carefully supporting policies and measures designed to deliver greater energy security to the country.
The report stresses that the capacity for cost reduction of battery storage technologies should not be underestimated in the way that solar PV was. As solar costs tumbled, the government – which had introduced generous FITs to encourage the uptake of PV – panicked and prematurely stripped away much of the support for solar.
The APPG report states that storage and solar share many similar characteristics, chiefly that both technologies enjoy massive and sustained cost reductions the more capacity is deployed and embraced. Equally, the general public is largely supportive of energy storage in the same way that solar remains a much-loved energy source.
These synergies should act as guiding principles to government to ensure that storage support is nuanced, realistic and free from the types of policy inconsistency that so spooked solar, said the report.
Edit - Here's another article on this story, perhaps with a little more meat on it:-
UK can deliver 12GW of battery storage with stronger policies, report findsMart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
My understanding is that AI is learning to learn. And, with the rate of progress expected it will soon be time for a real life living wage payment to the whole population paid for from the earnings of our machines.The issue here is that they don't learn ... The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
Oliver Wendell Holmes0
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