UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

Where do we go from here?
Some stocks have had a great run since early March is it time to cash in and wait for the next drop or have we bottomed and its a steady rise from here?
I would like to here from anyone who saw the last recession, late eighties,pan out and how the sectors reacted.
I viewed charts from then,it shows volatility till '92 before a general steady rise although different sectors behaved differently
Any thoughts appreciated
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Comments

  • DiggerUK
    DiggerUK Posts: 4,992
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    Tonygee,

    We lived through 80's & 90's crisis.
    Always stayed in work. Bought first property in 91, paid off by 01 when we moved here.

    Charts tell you nothing. You have to follow current affairs and make a judgement. Charts are as much use as tea leaves in many respects, but don't ignore them.

    In depth analysis is easy to understand, difficult to explain.

    You have to DYOR, then DYOR some more. Then it's a judgement call.

    Politicos will always jabber on about "green shoots of recovery" I don't see any for now.
    My call against equities is based on were the profits for dividends are going to come from. Serious forecasts about future unemployment and production are dire. If people ain't producing anything then there is no added value to divy out.

    If equity based products is were your looking at the moment, wait until the closures and unemployment figures begin to reverse.

    We are in our 50's.

    Have fun.
  • wombat42_2
    wombat42_2 Posts: 1,312 Forumite
    edited 29 July 2010 at 6:21PM
    Timing the market is very difficult. Best bet is be prepared to stay in for the long term and build up a separate cash buffer.
  • Masomnia
    Masomnia Posts: 19,506
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    It will fluctuate.
    “I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, he was far from being gruntled.” - P.G. Wodehouse
  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,035
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    edited 15 April 2009 at 2:35PM
    Take profits but stay invested somewhere you feel is best for the longterm.

    Technology was a great play coming out the nineties recession :p Still is but good judgement is required as to which companies when. If every stock starts falling or rising at once you know its not right
  • purch
    purch Posts: 9,865 Forumite
    Any thoughts appreciated

    Many/Most stocks will take years to regain their highs, and some may never get there (in real terms)
    'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'
  • GucciMane
    GucciMane Posts: 348 Forumite
    Agree with Purchy. I think we'll be rangebound for quite a few years.
  • wombat42_2
    wombat42_2 Posts: 1,312 Forumite
    GucciMane wrote: »
    Agree with Purchy. I think we'll be rangebound for quite a few years.

    Except there is a good chance that commodities and commodity stocks will spike violently upwards for a while in a year or so (higher than they were in 2008), thanks to supply destruction which may well have a coiled spring effect. Also inflation and a falling dollar should help them go up as well..

    There is also good reason to believe that commodities will rise over the long terma s well.
  • tonygee_3
    tonygee_3 Posts: 432 Forumite
    I anticipated a rally to last till end of April,basically 2months fall followed by a 2 month rise,what I failed to realise is some shares doubling and trebling.Unfortunately I sold some for modest 20% which I should have held.
    Interesting many people mention commodities,they were poor performers during the '90s,didnt take off till 2003+
    Theyve shot up recently but on what basis,they dont offer great dividends,most are struggling for cash and its going to be years before we return to recent global demands,surely recent rises in this sector(and housebuilders)are overdone.
    Ive retained some stock that have good divs and have cash at hand if there is a drop
  • DFrancis_3
    DFrancis_3 Posts: 21 Forumite
    Timing the market is difficult for most professionals and almost impossible for individual investors. Just invest in broad market index funds and stay the course. Keeping expense ratios low is more important than wondering what the market will do today. Just stay the course.

    DF
    I was shocked how much I was able to save just by living below my means.
  • wombat42_2
    wombat42_2 Posts: 1,312 Forumite
    tonygee wrote: »
    I anticipated a rally to last till end of April,basically 2months fall followed by a 2 month rise,what I failed to realise is some shares doubling and trebling.Unfortunately I sold some for modest 20% which I should have held.
    Interesting many people mention commodities,they were poor performers during the '90s,didnt take off till 2003+
    Theyve shot up recently but on what basis,they dont offer great dividends,most are struggling for cash and its going to be years before we return to recent global demands,surely recent rises in this sector(and housebuilders)are overdone.
    Ive retained some stock that have good divs and have cash at hand if there is a drop

    You have just touched upon 2 reasons yourelf. Lack of investment cash in commodities means supply destruction which should become very apparent when coming out of this recesion in a year or two and cause a big spike. Commodity prices are cyclical - they rocketed in the late 1970s, we are just in a hicup of a boom that should last another 10 years. Also increased demand from India and China should boost prices also inflation and falling dollar should boost prices.
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