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    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 9th Jun 15, 6:25 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Green, ethical, energy issues in the news (last 2 weeks)
    • #1
    • 9th Jun 15, 6:25 AM
    Green, ethical, energy issues in the news (last 2 weeks) 9th Jun 15 at 6:25 AM
    MSE Insert:

    We've seen some debate on this thread about the relevance of some posts to the topic.

    To ensure the thread remains on topic for forumites wanting to discuss the latest news we're asking that all posts contain a link to the news you're discussing.

    For the purposes of this thread the "news" needs to be within the last two weeks.

    Back to Martyn1981's original post.

    ---

    I thought it might be a good idea to have a thread for posting general news items that may be of interest.

    PV and the 'Solar in the news' thread attract a lot of interest, so here's a thread for all the other goings on.

    Mart.
    Last edited by Former MSE Andrea; 09-10-2018 at 9:41 AM.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
Page 105
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 21st May 19, 6:01 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Not exactly green energy, but part of the solution to the UK getting CO2 emissions down to net zero.

    Rewild a quarter of UK to fight climate crisis, campaigners urge

    A quarter of the UKís land could be restored to nature, making a significant contribution towards cutting the nationís carbon emissions to zero, under a new rewilding proposal.

    The plan, published by Rewilding Britain, calls for billions of pounds in farm subsidies to be redirected towards creating native woodlands and meadows and protecting peat bogs and salt marshes. The group says wildlife would benefit, farmers would not lose money and food production need not fall.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 21st May 19, 12:19 PM
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    NigeWick
    Not exactly green energy, but part of the solution to the UK getting CO2 emissions down to net zero.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    I'd rather see food production going over to regenerative Permaculture systems. We'd get the lower CO2 emissions, less chemical use, plus healthier food and more biodiversity.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 23rd May 19, 5:14 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Swansea tidal lagoon with a few changes ..... my head's spinning a bit, but good luck to them.

    Floating island part of new Swansea tidal lagoon plan
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 24th May 19, 10:37 AM
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    GreatApe
    Swansea tidal lagoon with a few changes ..... my head's spinning a bit, but good luck to them
    Originally posted by Martyn1981

    We dont need no tidal lagoon the UK grid is going to be mostly solved by 2023 when only ~25% of electricity generated will be from fossil fuels

    Likewise we dont need no additional nuclear (beyond what is already under construction) for the same reason

    Unless electricity demand starts to go up, there is no need for much more than what is under construction and what is committed to (30GW offshore wind by 2030)

    If you want a more rapid decarb the easiest thing to do is increase the UK carbon tax from £18/ton towards £50/ton.

    This would also reduce the CFD cost of wind farms and nuclear plants as wholesale prices would go up so the Contract for Difference cost would go down

    The imports from the interconnectors should also pay this CO2 tax to be calculated by whatever the average CO2 of the host nation grid is for that half hour
    • pile-o-stone
    • By pile-o-stone 24th May 19, 10:52 AM
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    pile-o-stone
    I'd rather see food production going over to regenerative Permaculture systems. We'd get the lower CO2 emissions, less chemical use, plus healthier food and more biodiversity.
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    I'd like to see both (and I don't think they're mutually exclusive). I'd also like to see an end to subsidies for hill farming so that the hills and moorland can return to a more natural environment. Having sheep on hills only continues because of subsidies - it's a hugely inefficient and loss making way to make food. With no subsidies, there's no sheep. With no sheep, there's no destruction of natural grasses, shrubs and trees. With greater biodiversity of vegetation you a return of wildlife and insects to these areas.
    5.18 kWp PV systems (3.68 E/W & 1.5 E).
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    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 26th May 19, 6:39 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Short article, but great graphics to demonstrate coal's decline in the UK, and to show how it stacks up in Europe.

    The power switch: tracking Britain's record coal-free run
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 26th May 19, 10:32 PM
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    GreatApe
    Short article, but great graphics to demonstrate coal's decline in the UK, and to show how it stacks up in Europe.

    The power switch: tracking Britain's record coal-free run
    Originally posted by Martyn1981

    Made possible thanks to the USA Fracking boom

    Without Fracking and the large increase in LNG the UK and most of Europe could not afford to close down its coal fleet

    Not because coal is cheaper than natural gas, which it is, but because the coal fired power stations provide a way to keep the gas monopolies more honest than they otherwise might be

    Even today, when most the coal fleet has already been closed down, the UK retains the ability to reduce annual gas consumption by about 20% by just firing up its 10GW of remaining stations. When these soon close we will lose that ability.
    • michaels
    • By michaels 27th May 19, 3:55 PM
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    michaels
    If solar plus storage becomes cheaper than gas in the US then what will they do with all the natural gas that I understand is to a large degree a by product of fracking for oil?
    Cool heads and compromise
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 27th May 19, 4:31 PM
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    Martyn1981
    If solar plus storage becomes cheaper than gas in the US then what will they do with all the natural gas that I understand is to a large degree a by product of fracking for oil?
    Originally posted by michaels
    Why frack for oil if BEV's are cheaper, and then solar and storage make leccy even more cheaper?
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 27th May 19, 5:35 PM
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    GreatApe
    If solar plus storage becomes cheaper than gas in the US then what will they do with all the natural gas that I understand is to a large degree a by product of fracking for oil?
    Originally posted by michaels

    First of all its not true that natural gas is a byproduct of fracking for oil,
    The largest shale gas basin (Appalachia) is almost 100% a gas play

    40% of all the shale gas in the USA comes out of that shale gas play which is pure gas and very little oil. Roughly speaking the output is 390GW thermal gas vs ~9GW thermal oil for that shale play. So 97.7% gas 2.3% oil

    The Haynesville shale play is also the same, 98% gas 2% oil.

    Those two shale fields combined produce ~54% of all the shale gas and they are more or less pure gas plays with ~98% NG 2% Oil. The oil is welcome but they are drilling for the gas

    So when you read that NG is just a byproduct of oil for shale, know that it is likely a propaganda piece by someone who has no idea of what they are talking about

    Also the concept itself is nebulous
    Even in shales which gas is a 'byproduct of oil' what exactly is that meant to mean?
    That if the oil runs out so does the gas. Ok so?

    What exactly does that tell us that is informative in any way?
    It is just trying to lead the reader to believe 'ahh ok oil is going to run out so the shale gas along side it will run out too!!' why should one think the oil will run out before the gas and not at the same time?

    Basically it is a play on words that adds nothing but confusion to the debate 'gas is a byproduct of oil!!!' and...so...what???

    Not only is it wrong, the big shale gas plays are 98% gas 2% oil, but even if the statement was correct it means nothing at all


    Even in 'oil play' shales, like the Permian shale in texas the ratio is roughly
    287 GW Oil vs 174 GW GAS
    62% Oil 38% Gas
    @$35/MWh for Oil and $10/MWh for NG the revenue percentage is roughly
    85% : 15%

    What that means is 15% of the revenue even in the huge oil shale play, is from NG sales
    That is not irrelevant and again this all means nothing the production is the production so there is no such thing as gas play or oil play there is just what the local shale is
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 27th May 19, 6:16 PM
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    GreatApe
    If solar plus storage becomes cheaper than gas in the US then what will they do with all the natural gas that I understand is to a large degree a by product of fracking for oil?
    Originally posted by michaels
    And now regarding what will they do with all their NG when solar plus storage becomes cheaper than gas fired generation....

    1: Most Gas in the USA is not used in power generation. Only about 1/3rd is used in power generation.

    2: Solar PV is still expensive relative to marginal NG through an existing CCGT (which has marginal cost of circa $20/MWh)

    3: Battery power does not get around the seasonal variation of PV output. Batteries can allow more solar to be integrated into the grid but overall it does not allow a huge reduction in thermal capacity (it will allow reduction in peaker but significant winter thermal capacity will still be needed)
    Last edited by GreatApe; 27-05-2019 at 7:13 PM.
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 27th May 19, 6:26 PM
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    GreatApe
    Why frack for oil if BEV's are cheaper, and then solar and storage make leccy even more cheaper?
    Originally posted by Martyn1981

    Because fracking saved the net oil importers bums inc UK consumers

    I know some green cheerleaders dont care about poverty but the masses dont want to be poorer.

    Without fracking which has added 8.5 million barrels per day to oil production, what would oil prices be today? $150 dollars?

    Why would anyone sane want the UK consumer to have to spend $50 billion more for oil?
    Even if we think high oil prices are good we can just tax oil more and keep the revenue in UK taxes rather than send them to Russia/Saudi who have less than ideal track records on human rights

    Shale saved the net oil importers and drastically crippled the economies of Russia/Opec relative to what they would otherwise have been. Both a net good in my books

    It also displaced some more expensive/risky offshore oil drilling also a good thing

    The Yanks, once again, saved Europe from itself
    We can continue to ban / delay / confuse over shale but thanks to the yanks the fossil energy supply is going to be plentiful and keep the net oil / gas exporters more honest than they otherwise would be...at least for another 3-5 years (and already has been the case for nearly a decade)
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 27th May 19, 6:42 PM
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    GreatApe
    Why frack for oil if BEV's are cheaper
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    BEVs are not cheaper.

    A tesla model 3 costs £40k while you can buy a new oil car for £15k

    The actual transport energy disruption, if/when it happens, is self drive software.

    That way you can have self drive EVs that run 100,000 miles a year rather than 10-20k miles per year private owned EVs. So one self drive car can displace 5-10 human driven cars.

    Even if EVs fail (unlikely) very efficient long life self drive oil cars could replace much less efficient much shorter lives oil cars. Fleet efficiency could double with self drive efficient oil fleets getting 80mpg rather than humans at 40mpg

    solar and storage make leccy even more cheaper?
    right now solar + storage makes 'leccy' expensive which is why you are not disconnecting from the grid

    Will solar + storage make 'leccy' cheaper ... maybe but we are not there yet

    If it works this 'storage' will likely be in the form of 'free' storage in the form of BEVs and with a model 3 at £40,000 vs an oil car at £15,000 this is not going to happen soon
    Last edited by GreatApe; 27-05-2019 at 7:17 PM.
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 27th May 19, 7:24 PM
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    GreatApe
    Why frack for oil if BEV's are cheaper, and then solar and storage make leccy even more cheaper?
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    b'cos BEVs cheaper than oil cars and PV+Batteries cheaper than the grid are currently ..... fantasy and basing economic and security decisions on fantasy is generally not advised

    Even if you were trying to make the argument that those things (BEVs PV Batts) will be cheaper soon.... well fracking declines very rapidly so you would and should continue to frack until only about 6-12 months until the crossover in costs. Unlike say coal mines and offshore oil where the declines are much more gradual and you would need to guess 10-15 years out what BEVs PV Batts will be doing
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 28th May 19, 6:43 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Short article, but great graphics to demonstrate coal's decline in the UK, and to show how it stacks up in Europe.

    The power switch: tracking Britain's record coal-free run
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Further to this, and the UK setting a new record by going coal free for a whole week at the start of May ..... well we've beaten that already with a 10 day run so far ...... and counting.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • silverwhistle
    • By silverwhistle 28th May 19, 8:55 AM
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    silverwhistle
    Yep, I just checked that link myself: 10d17h. I don't think they'll need any today. As a guide my panels are doing reasonably well and the silver birch at the bottom of the garden is showing a decent breeze.
    • Hexane
    • By Hexane 28th May 19, 11:28 AM
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    Hexane
    A tesla model 3 costs £40k while you can buy a new oil car for £15k
    Originally posted by GreatApe
    You can't buy any oil car for £15k with similar performance and features to the Tesla Model 3. The motoring press compare its performance, features and quality to the BMW 330i Sport which retails for around £39K. If you want to go downmarket there are much cheaper BEV from the likes of Nissan, Hyundai, Kia and so on. Admittedly the longer-range versions of these, just like the Tesla Model 3, are subject to severe availability constraints at the moment (in one case because the Norwegians are buying almost all of them), but that's this year and next year, not the 5-year or longer timescale that we're talking about.
    7.25 kWp PV system (4.1kW WSW & 3.15kW ENE), Solis inverter, myenergi eddi & harvi for energy diversion to immersion heater. myenergi hub for Virtual Power Plant demand-side response trial.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 28th May 19, 11:40 AM
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    Martyn1981
    You can't buy any oil car for £15k with similar performance and features to the Tesla Model 3. The motoring press compare its performance, features and quality to the BMW 330i Sport which retails for around £39K. If you want to go downmarket there are much cheaper BEV from the likes of Nissan, Hyundai, Kia and so on. Admittedly the longer-range versions of these, just like the Tesla Model 3, are subject to severe availability constraints at the moment (in one case because the Norwegians are buying almost all of them), but that's this year and next year, not the 5-year or longer timescale that we're talking about.
    Originally posted by Hexane
    Yep. In fact, Motor Trend magazine in the US, one of the long standing car mags (I used to have a subscription to them, Truck Trend and Car & Driver), recently carried out a comparison to find the best sports sedan you can buy for $50k. The TM3 was included in their final three car short list, and won.

    Crucially here - this had nothing to do with BEV's ICE's etc, the TM3 was simply included as a 'car', and won, beating the iconic BMW3 series car (that was $6k more expensive) into third place ........ and then imagine the fuel and maintenance savings on top.

    So on a like for like basis, BEV's have arrived, it's only when someone compares a $100k luxury TMS to a base Fiat Punto on price alone, that we see issues ...... lots of issues!

    Tesla Model 3 Rewrites The Rules Of What A Sport Sedan Can Be, Motor Trend Reflects
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 28th May 19, 12:45 PM
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    GreatApe
    You can't buy any oil car for £15k with similar performance and features to the Tesla Model 3. The motoring press compare its performance, features and quality to the BMW 330i Sport which retails for around £39K. If you want to go downmarket there are much cheaper BEV from the likes of Nissan, Hyundai, Kia and so on. Admittedly the longer-range versions of these, just like the Tesla Model 3, are subject to severe availability constraints at the moment (in one case because the Norwegians are buying almost all of them), but that's this year and next year, not the 5-year or longer timescale that we're talking about.
    Originally posted by Hexane

    £40,000 for the model 3 or £31,500 for a Nisan Leaf while the top 5 selling oil cars in the UK are roughly

    1: Ford Fiesta £13,645
    2: Volkswgen Golf £19,137
    3: Corsa £11,735
    4 Qashqai £19,000
    5: Ford Focus £16,800

    Sure they are not the same segment of car but I am not saying teslas wont sell, I am saying the largest segments are the affordable cars which EVs do not get close to

    The maintenance costs are also mostly not important consideration for new buyers since a typical car has 4 owners in its life and the first owner will be under guarantee. The 10p fuel vs the 4p electricity will mostly be offset by the 5p insurance for the cheap oil car vs the 10p insurance for the expensive EV (just an example) so there isn't even much if anything saving in running costs with cheaper electricity offset by more expensive insurance

    If human driven EVs are to dominate we need a compelling £15,000 EV capable of at least 150 miles range (which realistically means closer 90 miles usable since you do not want to charge to 100% or discharge to 0%) and this price needs to include the home charging kits etc
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 28th May 19, 12:55 PM
    • 3,129 Posts
    • 2,560 Thanks
    GreatApe
    Yep. In fact, Motor Trend magazine in the US, one of the long standing car mags (I used to have a subscription to them, Truck Trend and Car & Driver), recently carried out a comparison to find the best sports sedan you can buy for $50k. The TM3 was included in their final three car short list, and won.

    Crucially here - this had nothing to do with BEV's ICE's etc, the TM3 was simply included as a 'car', and won, beating the iconic BMW3 series car (that was $6k more expensive) into third place ........ and then imagine the fuel and maintenance savings on top.

    So on a like for like basis, BEV's have arrived, it's only when someone compares a $100k luxury TMS to a base Fiat Punto on price alone, that we see issues ...... lots of issues!

    Tesla Model 3 Rewrites The Rules Of What A Sport Sedan Can Be, Motor Trend Reflects
    Originally posted by Martyn1981

    But how big a segment is the lux expensive segment?

    The top 10 selling cars in the UK have an average sale price below half that of a model 3

    You are not going to convince those buyers to spend 2-3 times as much and pay 2-3 x as much in insurance costs so they can do 0-60 in 5 seconds rather than 10 seconds especially when the average speed in a place like London is a whopping 15mph...

    Maybe this is why tesla looks like it might be having demand problems. Performance sedan sector not as big as imagined
    Last edited by GreatApe; 28-05-2019 at 1:07 PM.
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