Election impact on investments

[Deleted User] · 14 December 2019 at 9:51PM

Turns out there are adverse economic impacts from this election as well:

In the wake of the Tory victory, residents of Corbyn Road fear the street name could send house prices – which average £140,000 - plummeting.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/residents-bid-rename-corbyn-road-17420058?fbclid=IwAR1tOl9OKWdQSY5RBDdpcUplZqhInJ-jcpnlmbjJ9Cb7eAgCvKAWJkeCC-g

enthusiasticsaver · 15 December 2019 at 9:23AM

I am not happy with the election result but my investments have gone up presumably because some of the uncertainty has gone. Although of course no one can predict what will happen when we eventually do leave the EU.

Getting trade deals together will take time and I doubt whether Boris will be able to fulfil his promise to "get Brexit done" in the timetable set out in the Conservative manifesto. Surely everyone knows he lies anyway so I am amazed so many chose to believe him both on Brexit, further privatisation of the NHS and working towards a more equal society. My only surmise from the result is that the alternatives to him were worse and our FPTP voting system is skewed in their favour. Ridiculous that the fate of the whole country hinges on results in marginal seats. In my constituency you could put a blue rosette on a donkey and people would vote for her even though she is useless.

The_Green_Hornet · 15 December 2019 at 12:33PM

enthusiasticsaver wrote: »

In my constituency you could put a blue rosette on a donkey and people would vote for her even though she is useless.

They said the same about red rosettes and donkeys in places like Blyth Valley, Sedgefield, Darlington, Workington, Wrexham, Redcar, and Bolsover yet they all voted Conservative.

DT2001 · 15 December 2019 at 12:39PM

FPTP is skewed in favour of different parties in different countries of the Union.
SNP got 80% of the seats with 45% of the votes
Tories got 64% of seats in England with 47% of votes
Labour got 55% of seats in Wales with 41% of votes
Lib Dem’s got 1.3% of seats with 12% of votes.

The system has got our country/economy where it is today. It helps sometimes and not others, imperfect but OK.

Maybe with his large majority Boris can extend the negotiation period to a more realistic timescale and settle for a softer Brexit.

Ever the optimist.

[Deleted User] · 15 December 2019 at 1:09PM

I am not happy with the election result but my investments have gone up presumably because some of the uncertainty has gone.

I think the uncertainty that was removed and thereby helped the markets was “PM Corbyn”. Like you say, the Brexit uncertainty is still there. The pound has been strengthening as the polls looked good for BoJo then it catapulted the second the exit polls came in.

Given Corbyn's background and manifesto, this isn’t exactly surprising. Corbyn was a low probability but high consequence event. I personally know someone who had moved a substantial amount of money out of the UK before the election - he is a wealthy retiree and wouldn’t have been able to afford PM Corbyn. Now the cash flows are reversing,

Like you say, Brexit uncertainty is still there. If that happens and the trade deals with the EU/US are reasonable, there is a substantial upward potential. The downside risk also remains, mainly the risk of impact on the financial industry

From an investment point of view one hopes that the Brexit uncertainty is removed sooner rather than later.

enthusiasticsaver · 15 December 2019 at 3:50PM

The_Green_Hornet wrote: »

They said the same about red rosettes and donkeys in places like Blyth Valley, Sedgefield, Darlington, Workington, Wrexham, Redcar, and Bolsover yet they all voted Conservative.

I think the swing away from Labour in those seats varied between 15 and 17%. In my constituency Conservative got 60% of the vote with the other 40% being split between Lib Dems, Labour and Greens. It would take a massive swing to move it away from blue as a high percentage of the population is elderly (Cornwall), rural and very anti EU. If only progressive parties would work together rather than splitting the vote. Ironic that many will require social care if not already and with cuts to public services that may not be easy to provide to everyone who needs it.

[Deleted User] · 15 December 2019 at 4:38PM

There is this patronizing theme that people, particularly the elderly don’t know what’s good for them.

In the real world, older people will remember how the nationalized railway actually worked and that being on a verge of a bankruptcy does not actually help social services. Besides, older people tend to have shares which Labour wanted to confiscate.

Suppose if Corbynista were good at “lessons learnt”, they wouldn’t have been Marxists in the first place.

JoeEngland · 15 December 2019 at 4:48PM

Unfortunately older people have been demonised a lot in the last few years, either for voting to leave the EU or voting for the Tories. Them and the "working class" who have been called stupid and racist have been the groups that some people love to hate.

norsefox · 15 December 2019 at 7:42PM

The reality is that any party will win 100% of the seats with 51% of the vote. The closer you get to 50% the greater the likely disparity.

The biggest problem is that Tories take far fewer votes to convert to a seat than Labour do, so even where voting % is equal, the Conservatives win every time.

FPTP is a profoundly 'unfair' system. The Tories do not have a mandate (through popular support) to commence what they wish to do with Brexit, but our voting system has allowed them to do so.

People get the governments they deserve. I find that very difficult to argue with, as unpleasant as I might find this result.

LHW99 · 15 December 2019 at 10:39PM

Unfortunately older people have been demonised a lot in the last few years, either for voting to leave the EU or voting for the Tories. Them and the "working class" who have been called stupid and racist have been the groups that some people love to hate.

So no good being "older", or "working class" or, I have read somewhere here "living in a rural location", "being white", "low education level"..........seems there's not many left who can be regarded as competant to vote!

Election impact on investments

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