Premium Bond rate boosted from 1.15% to 1.4% – should you pile in?

qwert_yuiop · 22 November 2017 at 4:56PM

Consecutive numbers have no bearing on the winnings. It’s random.

Years ago, they used to announce after the radio news where the winner was. It often seemed to be Essex. This caused people to go to Essex to buy bonds, also pointless.

qwert_yuiop · 22 November 2017 at 4:58PM

Here’s something to think about ( for 2 seconds). Which is more likely to win the lottery - 1,2,3,4,5,6 or a random selection?

Cactus_Jack · 22 November 2017 at 7:45PM

I've cashed my Santander 123 account in and gone in on Premium Bonds. I made sure to tell Santander I was leaving due to the cut in their rates too.

Here is to winning!

AstUte_2 · 22 November 2017 at 8:53PM

You can win if you do the work. First, not all bonds have an equal chance of winning. I have 20 years of records to prove that fact. In the same number of years, one £5000 block can have wins many many times, where as another £5000 block may only have one or two wins. So cash in and repurchase often. Therefore, the way to win is keep records of every bond, every win each block has, and every date each block of bonds are bought or sold. My return for 2015 was 4.25%. 2016 was 5.85% and this year depending on the Dec draw now stands at 4.61%.

qwert_yuiop · 22 November 2017 at 9:21PM

AstUte wrote: »

You can win if you do the work. First, not all bonds have an equal chance of winning. I have 20 years of records to prove that fact. In the same number of years, one £5000 block can have wins many many times, where as another £5000 block may only have one or two wins. So cash in and repurchase often. Therefore, the way to win is keep records of every bond, every win each block has, and every date each block of bonds are bought or sold. My return for 2015 was 4.25%. 2016 was 5.85% and this year depending on the Dec draw now stands at 4.61%.

So it’s not random? So it’s all a big swindle? And no one in the last, oh, sixty years or so has ever taken them to task on this?

Let’s organise a crowd funded legal action against National Savings - they’ve been duping us all for years with this lie that all bonds are created equal, when it’s all one huge fraud.
Isn’t it?

Wizard_of_Id · 22 November 2017 at 9:43PM

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Consecutive numbers have no bearing on the winnings. It’s random.

Years ago, they used to announce after the radio news where the winner was. It often seemed to be Essex. This caused people to go to Essex to buy bonds, also pointless.

Winners in Essex just means that there are more bond owners from there and people going to buy bonds there, as you say, matters not a jot as it will be the area where the owner lives that is announced and not where they were bought.

I have held some of my bonds for almost 40 years and never won from them but I have won a grand total of £50 from others bought only 20 years ago.

Grampsie · 22 November 2017 at 11:58PM

Remembering back to my A-level statistics course (a very long time ago!), all that matters is the average return.

The vast majority of £1 bonds will win nothing, therefore 0%. A very small minority will win a massive amount, including prizes of up £1 million, and so a massive %age return.

If you take these all into account the average return from December is 1.4%, a little above the best instant access rate I believe.

The more bonds you hold the closer to the 1.4% average you're likely to be.

In all cases you can get back your original capital at any time.

This is not the case with the National Lottery.

Also Wikipedia states "Of all money spent on National Lottery games, 50% goes to the prize fund, 28% to "good causes" as set out by Parliament (though some of this is considered by some to be a form of "stealth tax" levied to support the Big Lottery Fund, a fund constituted to support public spending), 12% to the UK Government as duty, 5% to retailers as commission, and a total of 5% to operator Camelot, with 4.5% to cover operating costs and 0.5% as profit."

Personally, if I were to get some money to invest I'd prefer to invest it in Premium Bonds and give money to charities of my choice.

qwert_yuiop · 23 November 2017 at 7:20AM

AstUte wrote: »

So cash in and repurchase often..

Amazingly bad advice. Bonds have to be held for a calendar month before becoming part of the draw. Every time you cash in and repurchase, you’ll miss out on at least a month’s worth of draws.

chamelion · 23 November 2017 at 11:43AM

robin58 wrote: »

Well this year have definitely won £25 4 times this year (think I may have a 5th but not sure on that).

3 of those were in consecutive months.

All this on a holding of 7k.

So you've received £100 on a £7000 investment?

Let's say you got it into some 3% accounts. That's £210. If you're a higher rate tax payer, that's £126.

Basically you need to win at least once more to make as much as you'd make on a 3% account.

Is it really worth it?

chamelion · 23 November 2017 at 11:46AM

Bootle_Boy wrote: »

I have the max having built it up over many years and I have "won" £550 in the last 12 months.

similar to my above post, getting even 3% on the £50,000 after 40% tax if you're a higher rate tax payer would get you £900.

You've gambled and made £350 less. Worth it?

Premium Bond rate boosted from 1.15% to 1.4% – should you pile in?

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