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Prepping for Brexit thread

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  • Mrs_Salad_Dodger
    Mrs_Salad_Dodger Posts: 4,881 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper First Post I've been Money Tipped!
    Hear, hear Primrose
    Be Kind. Stay Safe. Break the Chain. Save Lives. 

    2024 Savings Pot Challenge: As a monthly amount, running total = £116.85
    Jan £5; Feb £13; Mch £25; Apr £31:65; May £42.20; Jun £??; July £??; Aug £??; Sep £??; Oct £??; Nov £??; Dec £??.  Grand Total £??
  • Honey_Bear
    Honey_Bear Posts: 7,077 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Anniversary Photogenic First Post
    edited 7 August 2018 at 11:16AM
    Primrose wrote: »
    I hate to say it, and I wouldn't enjoy it if it happened but maybe a period of shortages would do us all good and remind us that in material terms, compared with many other countries we,ve really never had it so good.

    The supermarkets are bulging with so many food choices it makes our heads spin. The water always flows even in a drought. The electricity rarely fails. Most people who want jobs have one, even if they don,t enjoy their work. We still have free speech and an NHS service even if it isnt perfect.

    I remember visiting the So Union just before Glasnost . People would queue for 3 hours for a pint of milk and a jar of jam. No choice of raspberry, strawberry or damson jam either. Just any old jam mixed together in the factory. Take it or leave it ! And you could ,t criticise the government either or your neighbour would report you and you wiuld lose your job and your housing.

    We'll get through whatever happens. The British are rather good at it i think, despite our politicians!

    I've read the entire Forum Thread through and I think Primrose's post sums up quite a lot of the posters' attitudes. You're quite right, we have never had it so good. There is excessive supply which satisfies demand which is a very comfortable way to live. That is largely down to the fact that we are a member of the largest free-trade bloc in the world.

    That will not be the case on 30 March 2019 if we have No Deal.

    We will be the ONLY country in the world with no trade deals.

    We do not produce radioactive isotopes which which to treat cancer and without the regulatory required nuclear infrastructure that we currently do not have, we will not be allowed to import them. We do not have enough scientists who are qualified to manage the infrastructure required, either. They cannot be stockpiled.

    As a country we produce very little insulin. (The Prime Minister has Type 1 diabetes so she's fully aware of what that means.) It is pretty much all imported. It has a refrigerated shelf life of three months, so it, too, cannot be stockpiled.

    People who assume that our gas and electricity are not subject to the benefits of EU membership are quite wrong. Norway, for instance, is not in the EU but is in the Single Market and we will not be. We get a huge amount of gas from Norway as a previous poster pointed out - but we won't have a trade deal with Norway.

    When we have negotiated one, which could take years, Norway is not allowed to give a third country terms that are more favourable than the terms the EU has. At best, we might still be able to buy our gas from Norway on the same terms and conditions that we currently do.

    EDF is French-owned, and many of our water companies, rail companies and other electricity suppliers are at least partially owned by EU governments. They can charge us whatever they like when we are a Third Country.

    We survived the war largely because America stepped in and provided us with a great deal of support in the later years. It may have been politically expedient for the USA to do so - they were coming out of an incredibly severe depression which was so bad that American citizens lived in shanty towns and some went very hungry indeed. WW2 revitalized their economy and provided us with a vital lifeline via the North Atlantic Convoy. It was paid for by loans, which we finally finished repaying in the early 2000s. It took that long, so abundant was their help.

    The current American administration has made it as clear as it can that its policy is 'American First.' We will not be getting free or subsidised support from the USA, we will be paying a very high price indeed.


    It has been acknowledged that in order to fund the NHS taxes will have to rise.

    So far no announcements have been made about fisheries but fishermen and farmers are extremely worried about the future beyond 31 December 2020 - and that's if we get a transition period. Right now, according to Liam Fox, there's a 60% chance we're not going to, so farmers and the fishing industry are worried about their futures.

    It takes two and a half years to bring a newly born calf into milk. We no longer produce 100% of the dairy produce we consume, so shortages of milk, butter, cream and cheese will last for at least two and a half years, not a matter of days, weeks or months. Any dairy produce that makes it past the new border checks we were promised when we took back control of them will be very expensive indeed because of the nature of refrigerated transport costs.


    None of this is scare-mongering. It is exactly where we are a the moment and what worries me about this thread is that there is a belief that because thousands of people worked for years to resolveWe the Millenium Bug, and we survived WW2, we'll be fine.

    The trade deals we had with the rest of the world were defunct the minute we joined the EEC. None of them are extant.

    We produce less than 60% of the food we consume, and as detailed above, little or none of the life-saving medicines that hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions, need every single day. We import a masssive amount of power, both gas and electricity from Europe.

    If anyone thinks that behind the scenes all of these issues are being addressed carefully by our government and there won't be a problem on 31 March 2019 or even 21 December 2020, I'm delighted for you.

    So far the Government's track record doesn't inspire me. Theresa May called a winnable election and lost her majority. She's appointed a new Brexit negotiator and had to side-line him because he's an idiot who shoots his mouth off. Liam Fox said the EU trade deal would be the easiest in history - and is now saying that there is a 60% chance we won't get one. David Davis said he didn't need to be particularly clever to negotiate on our behalf, which was worrying because the EU's negotiators know exactly what they're doing. A full year after the Referendum result was announced and six months into his new job David Davis said he hadn't considered the implications of our EHIC cards that make health insurance in Europe affordable for British holiday makers.

    Our ex-pat community has been hit by a 17% drop in the value of the pound and still don't know, more than two years after the Referendum result what their rights are in Europe. A great many of them, principally the older ones with no employment in the future but a fair few health problems are very seriously considering returning to the UK. Where are the flats or houses they will occupy?

    It's an irrelevance as to whether the EU is being intractable, or we have appointed nincompoops to the outward facing posts of Brexit Negotiator, Trade Envoy and Foreign Secretary. Whether I voted Leave or Remain isn't relevant either. This is not scare-mongering, this is where we are right now and it scares the pants off me.

    Keep calm and carry on won't cut the mustard this time.
    Better is good enough.
  • Honey_Bear
    Honey_Bear Posts: 7,077 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Anniversary Photogenic First Post
    edited 7 August 2018 at 2:08PM
    [FONT=&quot]A List of Countries the U.K. has Free Trade Agreements and Preferential Trading Agreements with as a member of the E.U.
    ____________________________________________________[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Next time somebody is trying to tell you that remaining in the EU is an insular way of seeing things and that leaving the EU somehow allows us to make own trade deals and trade with the rest of the world you might like to show them this list of trade deals we have right now as a member of the EU team.[/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot]Of course, these are on top of the 27 free-trade deals we have with our EU partners and 4 free-trade deals we have with our EFTA colleagues (Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein & Switzerland).[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT][FONT=&quot]All deals that the U.K. negotiated from a position of strength over 45 years within the world's most powerful trade negotiation team, the EU, and that's according to the US team.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT][FONT=&quot]In trade negotiations, a very important part of your negotiation stance is the size of the market you can offer access to. The EU can name its price regarding safety, security and processes required by importers by in turn offering them access to a market of 512 million developed consumers for complying.[/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot]Outside the EU, the U.K. will only be able to offer 65 million consumers, and that immediately gives us a much weaker hand in getting the standards we require. Foreign importers will simply be prepared to offer less for access to a smaller market.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Less desire to trade with the U.K. means a lower need for Sterling and therefore the pound loses value, making foreign imports more expensive for British consumers to buy. Many foodstuffs, goods and services cannot be made or grown here, so we must pay more, or do without.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT][FONT=&quot]The question isn't about the UK getting a deal, it's more to do with what those deals are like and how long the U.K. must sell and trade at a significant disadvantage whilst those inferior trade deals come into effect.[/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot]Of course, after Brexit, the UK will be in direct competition with the powerful union of the EU and its firms. Since we are no longer a partner, they, and corporations all over the world, will be keen to seize our sales and market share, especially while we are so vulnerable.[/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot]Nor are all trade deals the same. The simpler ones, worth less, or which see the U.K. desperate and somewhat over-a-barrel are quick, usually taking 2-3 years. The more valuable ones worth more take about a decade.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT][FONT=&quot]The EU's trade deal with Canada (CETA) took 8 years, was goods only and required a Canadian trade negotiation team of 864 negotiators. The U.K. has less that 20 negotiators in total to negotiate goods and services deals with some 217 nations and territories across the world, and very little time to waste.[/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot]The EU, on the other hand, has been building trade relationships since 1957, and we have been a part of this since 1973, some 45 years which has seen us deeply involved with our partners in building smoother supply chains, greater speed and security, higher levels of safety and more streamlined bureaucracy in all aspects of our global trade.[/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot]Nor do they need a deal with us as much as we need a deal with them. The U.K. market accounts for only 2-3% of the EU's global sales, whereas the EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement just signed accounts for one-third of all global GDP.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Types of EU trade agreement
    [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]There are three main types of agreements:[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Customs Unions
    These eliminate customs duties in bilateral trade and establish a joint customs tariff for foreign importers[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Association Agreements, Stabilisation Agreements, (Deep and Comprehensive) Free Trade Agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements
    These remove or reduce customs tariffs in bilateral trade.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Partnership and Cooperation Agreements
    These provide a general framework for bilateral economic relations, but leave customs tariffs as they are.
    [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]EU Agreements in Place:[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Albania (Western Balkans)
    Stabilisation and Association Agreement
    In force since 2009[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Algeria
    Association Agreement
    In force since 01/09/2005[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Andorra
    Customs Union
    In force since 01/01/1991[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Armenia
    Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
    In force since 09/09/1999[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Azerbaijan
    Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
    In force since 1999[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Bosnia and Herzegovina (Western Balkans)
    Stabilisation and Association Agreement
    In force since 01/06/2015[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Botswana (SADC)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    In force since 05/02/2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Chile
    Association Agreement and Additional Protocol
    In force since 01/03/2005[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Egypt
    Association Agreement
    In force since 01/06/2004[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Faroe Islands
    Agreement
    In force since 01/01/1997[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Georgia
    Association Agreement
    In force since 01/07/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Iceland
    Economic Area Agreement
    In force since 1994[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Israel
    Association Agreement
    In force since 01/06/2000[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Jordan
    Association Agreement
    In force since 01/05/2002[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Kosovo (UNSCR 1244)
    Stabilisation and Association Agreement
    In force since 01/04/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Lebanon
    Association Agreement
    In force since 01/04/2006[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Lesotho (SADC)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    In force since 05/02/2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of (Western Balkans)
    Stabilisation and Association Agreement
    In force since 01/04/2004[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Mexico
    Global Agreement
    In force since 01/10/2000[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Moldova
    Association Agreement
    In force since 01/07/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Montenegro (Western Balkans)
    Stabilisation and Association Agreement
    In force since 01/05/2010[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Morocco
    Association Agreement
    In force since 01/03/2000[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Mozambique (SADC)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    In force since 05/02/2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Namibia (SADC)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    In force since 05/02/2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Norway
    Economic Area Agreement
    In force since 1994[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Palestinian Authority
    Interim Association Agreement
    In force since 01/07/1997[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Russia
    Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
    In force since 01/12/1997[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]San Marino
    Customs Union
    In force since 01/04/2002[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Serbia (Western Balkans)
    Stabilisation and Association Agreement
    In force since 01/09/2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]South Africa
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    In force since 05/02/2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]South Korea
    Free Trade Agreement
    In force since 01/07/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Swaziland (SADC)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    In force since 05/02/2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Switzerland
    Agreement
    In force since 01/01/1973[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Syria
    Co-operation Agreement
    In force since 01/07/1977[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Tunisia
    Association Agreement
    In force since 01/03/1998[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Turkey
    Customs Union
    In force since 31/12/1995[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]EU Agreements Partly in Place:[/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]These are countries and regions that have part (but not all) of their agreements in place with the EU. The agreement is fully applied when all parties have ratified the agreement.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Antigua and Barbuda (CARIFORUM)[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot] Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Armenia
    Updated Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 06/2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Bahamas (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Barbados (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Belize (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Botswana (SADC)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 10/10/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Cameroon (Central Africa)
    Interim Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2014[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Canada
    Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)
    Signed 30 October 2016, provisionally applied since 21/09/2017[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Colombia (with Ecuador and Peru)
    Trade Agreement
    Signed 26/07/2012, provisionally applied since 2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 03/09/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Comoros (ESA)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Costa Rica (Central America)
    Association Agreement with a strong trade component
    Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Cuba
    Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 1/11/2017[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Dominica (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Djibouti (ESA)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Dominican Republic (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Ecuador (with Colombia and Peru)
    Trade Agreement
    Signed 26/07/2012, provisionally applied since 2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]El Salvador (Central America)
    Association Agreement with a strong trade component
    Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Eritrea (ESA) Economic Partnership Agreement
    Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Ethiopia (ESA)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Fiji (with Papua New Guinea)
    Interim Partnership Agreement
    Ratified by Papua New Guinea in May 2011[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Ghana (West Africa)
    Stepping stone Economic Partnership Agreement provisionally applied
    Provisionally applied since 15/12/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Grenada (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Guatemala (Central America)
    Association Agreement with a strong trade component
    Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Guyana (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Haiti (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Haitian ratification still pending[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Honduras (Central America)
    Association Agreement with a strong trade component
    Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Jamaica (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Kazakhstan
    Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 01/05/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Madagascar, Mauritius, the Seychelles, and Zimbabwe (ESA)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Signed 08/2009, provisionally applied since 2012[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Papua New Guinea and Fiji
    Interim Partnership Agreement
    Ratified by Papua New Guinea in May 2011[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Namibia (SADC)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 10/10/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Nicaragua (Central America)
    Association Agreement with a strong trade component
    Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Panama (Central America)
    Association Agreement with a strong trade component
    Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Papua New Guinea (with Fiji)
    Interim Partnership Agreement
    Ratified by Papua New Guinea in May 2011[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Madagascar (ESA)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Signed 08/2009, provisionally applied since 06/2011[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Peru (with Colombia and Ecuador)
    Trade Agreement Signed 26/07/2012, provisionally applied since 2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]South Africa
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 10/10/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]St Kitts and Nevis (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]St Lucia (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]St Vincent and the Grenadines (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Sudan (ESA)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Signed 08/2009, not provisionally applied yet[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Suriname (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Trinidad and Tobago (CARIFORUM)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Provisionally applied since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Ukraine
    Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.
    Associate Agreement Signed 29/05/2014, provisionally applied since 01/01/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Zambia (ESA)
    Economic Partnership Agreement
    Signed 08/2009, not provisionally applied yet[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Agreements Pending:
    In some circumstances trade negotiations with a trade partner have been concluded, but have not been either signed or ratified yet. This means that although the negotiations have finished, no part of the agreement is in place yet.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Burundi (EAC)
    Economic partnership Agreement
    Has not signed or ratified agreement[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Japan
    Economic partnership Agreement
    Negotiations started 01/03/2013, concluded December 2017, awaiting signature[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Kenya (EAC)
    Economic partnership Agreement
    Signed and ratified, provisional application when all EAC countries sign and ratify[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Rwanda (EAC)
    Economic partnership Agreement
    Signed, provisional application when all EAC countries sign and ratify[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Singapore
    Free Trade Agreement
    Subject to CJEU opinion 2/15, awaiting signature[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Tanzania (EAC)
    Economic partnership Agreement
    Has not signed or ratified agreement[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Uganda (EAC)
    Economic partnership Agreement
    Has not signed or ratified agreement[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Vietnam
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations concluded December 2016, expected to enter into force in 2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Agreements Being Updated:[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot] The EU has trade agreements in place with these countries/regions, but both sides are now negotiating an update[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Azerbaijan
    Update of Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
    Negotiations began February 2017[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Chile
    Modernise trade part of Association Agreement
    Negotiations began 16/11/2017[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Mexico
    Modernisation of Global Agreement
    'Agreement in principle' on the trade part reached in April 2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Morocco
    Update of Association Agreement to create a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area
    Negotiations began 01/03/2013, on hold since April 2014[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Tunisia
    Update of Association Agreement to create a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area
    Negotiations began 12/10/2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Agreements Being Negotiated:
    Agreements currently under negotiation[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Argentina (Mercosur)
    Mercosur Association Agreement
    Negotiations resumed May 2010[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Australia
    Australia Agreement
    Negotiations launched in June 2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Bahrain (GCC)
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Brazil (Mercosur)
    Mercosur Association Agreement
    Negotiations resumed May 2010[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]China
    EU-China investment agreement
    Negotiations started 21/11/2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]India
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started 2007, last round in 2013[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Indonesia
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started 01/09/2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Kuwait (GCC)
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Malaysia
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started October 2010, paused since April 2012[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Myanmar
    Investment protection agreement
    Negotiations started 2015[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]New Zealand
    New Zealand Agreement
    Negotiations launched in June 2018[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Oman (GCC)
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Paraguay (Mercosur)
    Mercosur Association Agreement
    Negotiations resumed May 2010[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Philippines
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started 01/12/2015[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Qatar (GCC)
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Saudi Arabia (GCC)
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Thailand
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started 01/03/2013, no negotiations scheduled since 2014[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]United Arab Emirates (GCC)
    Free Trade Agreement
    Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]United States of America
    Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
    Negotiations started 2013, paused until further notice 2016[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Uruguay (Mercosur)
    Mercosur Association Agreement
    Negotiations resumed May 2010[/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Venezuela
    Mercosur Free Trade Agreement
    Suspended as Mercosur Member[/FONT]

    When the EU do a big trade deal they put in a clause that the country they have the deal with can't offer a better trade deal than they have with the EU to another territory. It's a pretty standard thing, the US writes the same clause into their trade deals. So, the very best we could hope for when doing trade deals with the Rest of the World is as good as we have now, but we're not even going to get that.
    Better is good enough.
  • maryb
    maryb Posts: 4,660 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Post Combo Breaker First Anniversary
    Dairy production, as you pointed out, has a lead time. As a result of decisions already taken there are cows in Europe which still need milking twice a day and that milk needs to find a market. France produces a lot of its electricity from nuclear power. That sort of generation is not very flexible. Just a couple of examples.

    In an ordinary everyday context we all recognise that it is a major problem for a business to lose a big regular customer. That still applies. Ordinary producers will still want to market their produce and won't easily or quickly be able to replace a market the size of the UK.

    It may be messy. No-one is saying it won't be potentially chaotic. It won't be permanent
    It doesn't matter if you are a glass half full or half empty sort of person. Keep it topped up! Cheers!
  • Honey_Bear
    Honey_Bear Posts: 7,077 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Anniversary Photogenic First Post
    edited 7 August 2018 at 2:10PM
    maryb wrote: »
    No-one is saying it won't be potentially chaotic. It won't be permanent

    It could be 50 years before we see the economic benefits of Leaving according to Jacob Rees-Mogg, or if you prefer a businessman's perspective - 100 years. Both of them supported and campaigned for Leave. But as you say, it's not permanent.

    Once prices go up they do not come down. The increases in the cost of living will be permanent, and if the border control discussions and planning taking place right now are to be believed, EU members will not want their produce sitting in a lorry park for four days while we check paperwork. One truckload of fruit, veg, meat and dairy going off will be the only one each EU's exporter will be prepared to accept because food margins are low, trucks are an expensive investment, and the drivers' time expensive. After that, they will simply not both trying to bring us any food at all. There will be a glut in Europe, prices will drop and next year the farmers will produce less.

    See here for WTO tariffs on beef and lamb. There are no doubt other documents readily available for other products such as medicines (if we have the regulatory infrastructure in place that makes importing them legal). We will be paying tariffs on imported food until we can do trade deals but we won't be getting better terms than anyone who currently has a trade deal with the EU. So that's not permanent, but it will significantly increase the price of 40% of our food.


    And I for one am praying neither I, nor anyone I care about, gets diagnosed with cancer in the forseeable future, because it'll be a fatal diagnosis with No Deal. That may not be permanent, and for the majority of people that's fine. For those currently taking shedloads of imported drugs because they had bowel cancer a couple of years ago, it's not so comforting that one day, some time in the future, we'll be able to import radioactive isotopes again if it comes back. Don't get breast cancer, either, obviously. Does any on this thread know how long does it take to train nuclear scientists?

    You can be absolutely certain that all of the MPs on the front bench have private medical insurance, and that they can afford to fly to anywhere they can get treated. I can't, but maybe others on this thread can. If not, better start saving. It won't be permanent, but it might taka few years to do these trade deals, so stay well until then.

    We won't be flying to Europe, because the Open Skies agreement ends with our No Deal departure from the EU. Michael O'Leary has been warning about this for over two years, so it's not news.
    Better is good enough.
  • puttee
    puttee Posts: 19 Forumite
    As others have pointed out, nearly everything is speculation at the moment as negotiations are ongoing and nobody knows the outcome. It is useful I find in knowing what is speculation and what will actually be in force if various things happen.

    One topic that seems very fuzzy is the post-Brexit tariff situation with some wildly different opinions and views. Some assume that we will be absolutely free to do as we wish, and I think some politicians have led people to believe this. But it is rather more complicated than that. There is a good short piece in Full Fact (there are lots of other sources of this info too) which I have found useful in better understanding what one outcome we might have to face as a country.

    https://fullfact.org/economy/post-brexit-trade-tariffs/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIjdH1oOba3AIVCSjTCh3mqgGrEAAYASAAEgI_WvD_BwE


    It is a difficult topic, but I think the more we inform ourselves the better.



    HTH
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0 Newbie
    First Anniversary First Post I've been Money Tipped!
    We'll get what we get, and we'll have to cope with it because IT is what we'll have. I'm not into the politics just the practicalities and because we're British and not afraid of some hard work and tough times I STILL maintain that we will all as a nation rally round and MAKE THE BEST OF IT THAT WE CAN!

    You can spread doom and gloom and dire forecasts until you run out of breath and I will still feel the same way because I've been cold, hungry and unhappy before and survived what life in all it's uncaring way can toss in my path, and I KNOW I CAN DO IT AGAIN!

    I will NOT be afraid, I will get on with it and as said before like a tired old record I will make the best of it that I can!!!
  • lessonlearned
    lessonlearned Posts: 13,337 Forumite
    Combo Breaker First Post I've been Money Tipped!
    edited 7 August 2018 at 12:49PM
    Mrs LW you are right as always.

    Whilst I'm not an ostrich and I fully appreciate that we may not be in for an easy ride I genuinely believe that all this doom and gloom mongering does no good at all. Project Fear and all that is just a sheer waste of time and energy.

    I'm a roll up your sleeves and get stuck in kind of gal, always was, always will be.

    What we need is for everyone to grow a backbone, stop whinging and start getting their heads round how they are going to not only survive but thrive. How they are going to look after themselves, their loved ones and maybe help their communities where they can.

    I too have been poor, cold and hungry. So what ......it didnt kill me. But what it did do was give me the drive, ambition and determination to build myself a decent life. A determination which I still have to this day.

    Am I going to let Project Fear reduce me to a quivering wreck, whimpering in the corner.

    Absolutely not!!!! I am no quitter. I'm going to get ready and meet the challenges that I face head on. Same as always.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0 Newbie
    First Anniversary First Post I've been Money Tipped!
    LessonLearned my take on life in general is that every second wasted in anger, every second spent in thinking 'what if?' and every second spent in fear of something that we can't even begin to guess the outcome of is a second wasted when I could be doing something positive to make my life better and make slightly more sure of my own control over my future. I too am not a quitter, certainly not a quitter before the event and if I find things after the event hard well, I'm not a quitter then either!
  • GustyGardenGalaxy
    GustyGardenGalaxy Posts: 746 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Post First Anniversary
    An expert in international trade educated James O'Brien on what will happen after Britain leaves the European Union


    https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/expert-schools-james-obrien-on-brexit-facts/



    Listen and weep for for the UK and its people.
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