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  • NigeWick
    NigeWick Posts: 2,715 Forumite
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    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    Not sure if this is genius or crazy (perhaps it makes sense if you don't have spare land?)
    China's got some on lakes.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
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  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,764 Forumite
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    NigeWick wrote: »
    China's got some on lakes.

    Lots of countries have rolled out floating PV on lakes and reservoirs, it's been quite successful I believe.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,764 Forumite
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    Italy is getting close to subsidy free PV that competes directly with the wholesale market, as well as under PPA's.

    Unsubsidized large-scale solar projects are proliferating across Italy
    Italian renewable energy developer LIMES RE and Italy-based consultancy company Prothea Srl have jointly announced that they intend to deploy around 500 MW of large-scale solar projects across Italy at market parity.

    According to the companies’ announcement, the plants will have a capacity ranging from 10 MW to 50 MW, and will be developed across several Italian regions over the next three years.

    “These projects,” the CEO of Prothea, David Armanini told pv magazine, “are planned to sell power to local power traders under private PPAs that will have a minimal duration of 10 years.”
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,764 Forumite
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    Bad news.

    Can you believe it?

    Government quietly shelves plans for feed-in tariff review
    Last year a BEIS spokesperson informed Solar Power Portal that it intended to conduct a review of the feed-in tariff, to be published before the end of 2017.

    The spokesperson said in April: “BEIS intends to conduct a review of the balance of deployment caps between and within technologies, taking into account deployment patterns and wider government priorities. This will be published later this year.”

    This was in response to questions over the government’s commitment to conducting bi-annual reviews of the feed-in tariff’s performance, as mandated within the consultation response published in December 2015.

    However the department now appears to have shelved the review, according to written answers provided by Perry.


    Good news.

    Zestec targets commercial rooftop market with multi-million-pound, subsidy-free model
    Zestec Asset Management is aiming to ignite the UK’s commercial solar rooftop market with a multi-million pound, subsidy-free model.

    The scheme, which is financed by institutional and private investment, offers commercial rooftop installations for businesses backed by power purchase agreements.

    Zestec develops and manages the installs while commercial entities enter into long-term PPAs that only rise owing to RPI.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,764 Forumite
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    Well, I got all excited last year waiting for, then seeing the first 100GWp year, but now it seems I should strap myself down, and start to get ready for a 200GWp year soon*, as the figures keep on going up?

    *Anyone want to make a guess, 2022?

    Solar PV 2018 CAPEX To Grow 25% & Surpass $10 Billion, Says Finlay Colville
    Solar module supply is expected to continue to expand “at unprecedented rates” in 2018, with expectations that it could easily reach or even surpass the 120 gigawatt mark.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,764 Forumite
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    Yes, Arizona has an ickle bit more sun than the UK ;) but softly, softly, catchee monkey:-

    Solar Plus Batteries Beat Out Natural Gas In Two US Electricity Markets
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,764 Forumite
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    edited 21 February 2018 at 1:01PM
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    German PV gets cheaper, yet again. It's a reasonably good guide for the UK as generation is similar. The last UK CfD where PV was eligible was in early 2015 when contracts were awarded £80/MWh and German contracts were issued at the same time for about !!!8364;91/MWh.

    Germany!!!8217;s auction for large-scale solar: Bids below !!!8364;0.04/kWh for the first time
    The price rally in the tenders for solar PV systems over 750 kW in Germany is not stopping. According to the German Federal Network Agency, submitted bids crossed the !!!8364;0.04 threshold for the first time, and reached an average value of !!!8364;0.0433/kWh. The agency has also revealed that the lowest bid was !!!8364;0.0386/kWh, while the highest offer was !!!8364;0.0459/kWh.

    Note !!!8364;43.3/MWh is approx £38.30/MWh.

    Edit - for some reason MSE is having trouble with the euro symbol .... is this an early Brexit issue?
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • michaels
    michaels Posts: 28,005 Forumite
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    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    German PV gets cheaper, yet again. It's a reasonably good guide for the UK as generation is similar. The last UK CfD where PV was eligible was in early 2015 when contracts were awarded £80/MWh and German contracts were issued at the same time for about !!!8364;91/MWh.

    Germany!!!8217;s auction for large-scale solar: Bids below !!!8364;0.04/kWh for the first time



    Note !!!8364;43.3/MWh is approx £38.30/MWh.

    Edit - for some reason MSE is having trouble with the euro symbol .... is this an early Brexit issue?
    Presumably in the UK that would be pretty much subsidy free but with the huge German build out I think spot prices sometimes drop to zero on good solar days.
    I think....
  • Nicolai_Grenovski
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    "German PV gets cheaper, yet again. It's a reasonably good guide for the UK as generation is similar"
    This is misleading - there are two things to note.
    Firstly, German prices do not include transmission costs -there is no direct equivalency to UK pricing-
    You need to add in the region of 25-35% for the UK cost dependent upon multiple factors.
    The true measure is LCOL (Levelized Cost of Leccy).


    Secondly, there is a lot of what we call "Wiedererwerb" (reacquisition ) of stock and older technology cells.
    Older low efficiency panels originally sold for the domestic market are being purchased for solar farms and newer higher efficiency panels (with a smaller footprint) are being installed domestically to increase domestic efficiency.

    Simply put: If you have cheap land and a warehouse full of low efficiency (originally domestic) panels cheap enough, then you can undercut the current install price by a significant margin.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,764 Forumite
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    edited 23 February 2018 at 7:53PM
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    This is misleading - there are two things to note.
    Firstly, German prices do not include transmission costs -there is no direct equivalency to UK pricing-
    You need to add in the region of 25-35% for the UK cost dependent upon multiple factors.
    The true measure is LCOL (Levelized Cost of Leccy).


    Secondly, there is a lot of what we call "Wiedererwerb" (reacquisition ) of stock and older technology cells.
    Older low efficiency panels originally sold for the domestic market are being purchased for solar farms and newer higher efficiency panels (with a smaller footprint) are being installed domestically to increase domestic efficiency.

    Simply put: If you have cheap land and a warehouse full of low efficiency (originally domestic) panels cheap enough, then you can undercut the current install price by a significant margin.

    I have often heard of the need to add 25-35% (or TBH 30%) to some auction prices, but these have tended to be for very large scale on-shore wind, or off-shore wind.

    I'm not sure I've seen a reference for adding such costs to PV.

    1. PV is usually (possibly always?) connected to the LV grid, not the HV grid, so whereas an off-shore wind farm needs the whole infrastructure built out, and possibly reinforced, the PV farm probably only needs to pay for the connection fee to the LV grid. And whilst UK DNO's have a reputation for charging a lot to connect new properties, businesses etc, I'm not sure that it would be 35%. Perhaps you have a link/reference, for which I would be grateful.

    2. PV farm locations are often chosen for their 'nearness' to a suitable LV grid connection. In fact the proposed giant subsidy free farm in Kent plans to piggy back off the network built out to service a wind farm. Since the technologies tend to be complimentary, rather than competitive, that seems like a good plan.

    3. Regardless of such costs, the German contracts in early 2015 were of an almost identical cost to the UK CfD prices !!!8364;91 v's £80 per MWh.

    Since then the German costs have fallen by approx Euro50/MWh (around £43/MWh). So whilst it might not be exactly scientific nor economically certain, it does seem fair to suggest that if German costs have fallen by that amount since early 2015, then UK costs would benefit from similar gains.

    4 (or 3 pt 2). If UK costs are +35%, then we could take the 2015 £80/MWh price, strip out the infrastructure costs you suggest of +35% = £59/MWh, deduct the German savings of £43 = £16/MWh, then add back on 35% = £21.60/MWh .... but I'm not sure that sounds at all reasonable, so perhaps we'll skip this calculation.

    5. I've no idea if your cheap old panel suggestion is true or not, but I should point out that it would mean increased land costs (even if the land is cheap) as a greater area would be needed, so that would carry an annual penalty through OPEX.

    6. If you take a look at the second graph in this article, then you'll see that utility scale PV install costs in the UK are slightly less than in Germany, or at least they were last summer.


    [Edit - Just to say if UK costs truly are Germany + 25/35%, then that's still excellent news, I've been suggesting that PV is probably about £50/MWh now, and Euro43.30 + 25/35% = approx £47.48 to £51.28/MWh. M.]
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
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