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Brexit, Mark Carney and the housing market

245

Comments

  • Nick_C
    Nick_C Posts: 7,459 Forumite
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    ed67812 wrote: »
    Despite what the Daily Fail reports...

    Why bring this irrelevant comment into the discussion? All the reports I have heard and read have been on the BBC!
  • Crashy_Time
    Crashy_Time Posts: 13,386 Forumite
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    Just trying to pin the inevitable property bubble burst on Brexit, as predicted a very convenient scapegoat!
  • Crashy_Time
    Crashy_Time Posts: 13,386 Forumite
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    Nick_C wrote: »
    IF Carney is right this time, then this is a good time to downsize, but not a good time to upsize.

    If you are relocating to another property of similar value, it is immaterial.

    Personally, I think a 35% drop in house prices would be a good thing, but I don't think it will happen.


    Wouldn`t be enough to take you to fair value in many areas, hence transactions will continue to fall until rate rises or sentiment/recession bring the long overdue bursting of the property Ponzi.
  • ProDave
    ProDave Posts: 3,721 Forumite
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    Crashy_Time wrote: »
    Wouldn`t be enough to take you to fair value in many areas, hence transactions will continue to fall until rate rises or sentiment/recession bring the long overdue bursting of the property Ponzi.

    And what would you say was a "fair" price for the average 3 bedroom home to fall to in your ideal world?
  • Crashy_Time
    Crashy_Time Posts: 13,386 Forumite
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    ProDave wrote: »
    And what would you say was a "fair" price for the average 3 bedroom home to fall to in your ideal world?


    Depends on the area, in some areas it could be 50k or lower.
  • ProDave
    ProDave Posts: 3,721 Forumite
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    Crashy_Time wrote: »
    Depends on the area, in some areas it could be 50k or lower.
    As you probably know, I am in the process of self building a modest 3 bedroom house.

    Leaving out land cost and planning cost, the actual construction cost is so far standing at £130K and will probably hit £150K by the time it is actually finished. That is just about £1000 per square metre, you really would struggle to build for less than that with todays material and labour costs.

    So even if building land was free and planning permission was free, if you are hoping for a 3 bedroom house to be built and sold for £50K then I can assure you not a single house will get built.
  • AnotherJoe
    AnotherJoe Posts: 19,622 Forumite
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    ProDave wrote: »
    As you probably know, I am in the process of self building a modest 3 bedroom house.

    Leaving out land cost and planning cost, the actual construction cost is so far standing at £130K and will probably hit £150K by the time it is actually finished. That is just about £1000 per square metre, you really would struggle to build for less than that with todays material and labour costs.

    So even if building land was free and planning permission was free, if you are hoping for a 3 bedroom house to be built and sold for £50K then I can assure you not a single house will get built.

    In another thread yesterday, someone poimted to some houses for sale in Wales. These were newbuilds, 3 bed terraces, looked pretty nice, going for £90k. That would have included land, bulding costs and profit for the builder.
  • Gwendo40
    Gwendo40 Posts: 349 Forumite
    ProDave wrote: »
    As you probably know, I am in the process of self building a modest 3 bedroom house.

    Leaving out land cost and planning cost, the actual construction cost is so far standing at £130K and will probably hit £150K by the time it is actually finished. That is just about £1000 per square metre, you really would struggle to build for less than that with todays material and labour costs.

    So even if building land was free and planning permission was free, if you are hoping for a 3 bedroom house to be built and sold for £50K then I can assure you not a single house will get built.


    If you're paying £150k JUST on build costs for a 'modest' 3 bed property then someone is seriously taking you for a ride.
  • natcoco
    natcoco Posts: 5 Forumite
    First Anniversary
    I’m in the exact same situation, due to exchange Monday and having serious doubts. It’s not the dream house, we only plan on staying there for 5 years max, it’s definitely too small for us to stay in for 10 plus years if there is a crash. Im so confused! I really want a house and I’m sick of renting but I don’t want to be in negative equity in 4 years while the current owner gets a cheque for 250k!
  • _CC_
    _CC_ Posts: 362 Forumite
    As mentioned, it wasn't a prediction like some headlines made out. It's what the bank uses for stress testing in the event of a major economic downturn. 1/3 drop in house prices, 4% rates and doubling of unemployment.
    Crashy_Time wrote: »
    Depends on the area, in some areas it could be 50k or lower.

    You can already buy 3 beds in "some areas" for around that.

    Care to be more specific? What are these houses that you think will be worth £50k currently being valued at? :)
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