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    • JoeEngland
    • By JoeEngland 11th Jul 18, 8:05 PM
    • 152Posts
    • 200Thanks
    JoeEngland
    What age to plan living to
    • #1
    • 11th Jul 18, 8:05 PM
    What age to plan living to 11th Jul 18 at 8:05 PM
    My spreadsheet goes up to when I'm 90, not because I expect to live that long but because DW is 4 years younger. This seems to fit in with advice on here to plan finances until age 85-90. Since none of us know how long we'll live, this study may help think about what age to plan to:

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.elsa-project.ac.uk/uploads/elsa/report08/ch8.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwinr5jC3JfcAhUrCMAKHbx2Bf0QFjAHe gQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw1mvnxMseJ5XrLpyMzv_Ykv
Page 3
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 27th Jul 18, 1:41 PM
    • 2,354 Posts
    • 1,662 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    Your mean life expectancy will change as you age so it might be a good number to revise......assuming that you are still alive of course.

    Mortality curves are not "normal", but you might still apply probability levels based on one, two or three standard deviations. I you use 3 sigma normal curve criteria, ie you have less than a 1% chance of living longer than your target then a UK male aged 55 would have a mean life expectancy of 84 years and you'd need to plan to live to 101, for a woman aged 55 the mean life expectancy is 88 and you might want to plan to live well past 100. As a rule of thumb, if you are in good health I'd plan for at least age 95 and to be really safe 100.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • kidmugsy
    • By kidmugsy 27th Jul 18, 2:14 PM
    • 11,714 Posts
    • 8,239 Thanks
    kidmugsy
    Almost evens. It's not difficult to work out from the ONS mortality tables. Assuming a 75 year old male and 73 year old female, and ignoring the fact that having your partner die decreases your life expectancy, there's a 24% chance that the man will live past 90, and a 33% chance the woman will. The chances that at least one of them will reach 90 are 1 - ((1 - 0.24) * (1 - 0.33)) = 49%..
    Originally posted by Malthusian
    Thanks. I wonder whether a post-hoc study of outcomes would reveal some consequences of assortative mating (if I've got the jargon right) i.e. a tendency for men who (unknowingly) are likely to live longer than average marrying women ditto. There must be final year undergraduate project in that. Or maybe actuaries already know all about it - it would be hard to cost the liabilities of DB pension schemes without such info.
    Free the dunston one next time too.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 27th Jul 18, 2:24 PM
    • 2,354 Posts
    • 1,662 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    Is there a good source for the life expectancy and related statistics for the survivor of a couple? After all, many of us are as worried for our spouses as for ourselves.

    If you take a couple of, say, 75 and 73, what is the probability that one of them will live past 90? (We could assume average health for their age and no family histories of unusually long or short lives.) I realise that the question is much more complicated than the probability of a single individual surviving, but it may well be more important too. And yet I've never seen it discussed.
    Originally posted by kidmugsy
    Just look here and you can download all the data

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/previousReleases

    If you know the probabilities of the man and woman living past 90 ie Pm and Pw then the probability
    of one of them living past 90 is

    P(one >90) = 1 - ((1-Pw) * (1-Pm))

    the probability that both will live past 90 is

    P(both>90) = Pw * Pm
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • sleepymans
    • By sleepymans 27th Jul 18, 2:50 PM
    • 800 Posts
    • 1,216 Thanks
    sleepymans
    Theres darn things don't measure quality of life. Whats the point of being alive if you can see, hear, be tpainfree, are alone, feel ill, in constant pain.I dint think many of us baby boomer generation will actually let nature take its course if we find existence intolerable.
    Goddess
    • sleepymans
    • By sleepymans 27th Jul 18, 3:03 PM
    • 800 Posts
    • 1,216 Thanks
    sleepymans
    Me....Im going at 68....2.5 years to go
    Goddess
    • JoeEngland
    • By JoeEngland 27th Jul 18, 6:08 PM
    • 152 Posts
    • 200 Thanks
    JoeEngland
    Me....Im going at 68....2.5 years to go
    Originally posted by sleepymans
    After reading your previous post I hope "going" means retiring and not something else!
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 27th Jul 18, 6:27 PM
    • 2,354 Posts
    • 1,662 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    If you retire in your mid 60s, and you are healthy, you should plan on at least a 30 year retirement and make sure your money will last that long.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
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