Electric cars
Comments
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I must admit that since I have noticed a Tesla X100 is it, parked outside Aldi on a couple of occasions, I have been completely sold. Rather expensive, and possibly not that straightforward to get charged, or serviced in the UK I suppose. A 0 to 60 of 2.9 does seem like overkill. My mate has just said to me, don't I remember trolley buses!
I certainly don't remember being pinned to my seat as they accelerated away!0 -
Martyn1981 wrote: »But a single speed fixed transmission without reverse is peanuts in comparison, and possibly the sort of job that'll get taken in house.
See post #6890 -
HiGloomendoom wrote: »
Isn't that effectively a cutaway of a complete motor with a simplified drive mechanics assembly, complete with coolant & electronics all contained in one modular assembly? ... if so, I can't really see that being an issue anywhere ...
The automotive OEMs tend to hate manufacturing operations as they act as costly bottlenecks to restrict their sales ...
:D - they're continually increasing modularity & therefore effectively outsourcing assembly operations to improve in-plant productivity, so we're potentially looking at the consolidation of power-train & drive-train operations under one heading, so something's got to give .. If standard units become available off the shelf with associated economies-of scale driving supply costs down, then the OEMs will close down their engine plants, else (politically driven) decisions will be taken to retain ownership of power-train & Martyn's thoughts will probably be correct .... only time will tell.
Most OEMs would, if possible, increase modularity to the point where they did little else than fit their badge, even then they'd prefer to sub-contract that too ... (as a number already do!)
HTH
Z"We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
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A car is full of trivial to design and manufacture things - these days you rely on specialist companies even if you could DIY. No point working up your own expertise, especially in a mature technology like electric motors. On the other hand, for a company that recognises that its core product is disappearing under its feet, it has to make an attempt to either move with the technology, diversify or simply move its money into other technologies.Martyn1981 wrote: »I'm not sure about that. Building a variable 5, 6+ speed gearbox with reverse, or an 8 speed+ automatic is a big complicated job, and one that favours specialist companies. But a single speed fixed transmission without reverse is peanuts in comparison, and possibly the sort of job that'll get taken in house.
Kodak tried to go with its market, it failed.
TI (Tube Investments) was a Midlands metal bashing blue chip company that bailed on its core products (Raleigh bikes, Russel Hobbs, Creda, even the steel works) and went into other stuff and eventually vanished after various mergers and acquisitions - I think the shareholders came out OK.
GEC, later Marconi, tried to move from low profit steady commodity goods in an ill-thought out switch into telecoms and screwed the company in no time (burning a billion pound cash mountain in the process).
For car makers to switch to EV is probably no big deal - their core product is the construction of a heap of components into a vehicle and not much really changes - I doubt that the Dresden VW glass house had much of a refit to build the eGolfs instead of the Phaetons, the logistics is pretty much the same.
The only significant business impact is engine manufacture where the big firms still saw that as a profitable specialism (JLR killed the X-Type because it made more profit for Ford selling its engine and other components than JLR). I would expect the manufacturers to spin out and sell off engine manufacturing and we'll see a consolidation into specialised engine manufacture over the next decade or two, just as we have seen companies decide that gearboxes are commodities. To be fair, it's already happening, there has long been an element of engine sharing, it'll just accelerate.0 -
But I really cannot be bothered with the endless circular 'debate' these threads always end in.
The difference from a few years ago is that there are many posters who have practical experience. I can appreciate the plaintiff cry of "it wouldn't suit me because I have a big bladder" [or whatever..], but it is far more interesting to hear the issues from the point of people who are doing it. Thanks to you and to others: I'll be interested to hear of your experience in France.
I'm off to Italy in my 2009 hatchback in a couple of weeks for a couple of weeks skiing, if we get there - currently level 4/5 avalanche danger, which in my experience is unprecedented. I'll keep an eye open for chargers, but it'll be a long time before I can afford an electric vehicle (a S/H Leaf, I would imagine), let alone one which can do that journey!
I keep thinking there must be an opportunity for car hire businesses near the channel ports for EV owners going on long trips, but then the idea probably has a limited lifespan.
As others have pointed out businesses will have to diversify. I was chatting in my club bar the other day to the owner of a village local independent garage, and he had no plans for dealing with electric. I suspect he'll be retired before the issue becomes critical.0 -
IanMSpencer wrote: »Kodak tried to go with its market, it failed.
Eastman Kodak certainly didn't do well out of the move to digital imaging, but they're still a multi-billion NYSE listed company.TI (Tube Investments) was a Midlands metal bashing blue chip company that bailed on its core products (Raleigh bikes, Russel Hobbs, Creda, even the steel works) and went into other stuff and eventually vanished after various mergers and acquisitions - I think the shareholders came out OK.
TI was bought by Smiths Group in 2000. Smiths are still part of the FTSE100.GEC, later Marconi, tried to move from low profit steady commodity goods in an ill-thought out switch into telecoms and screwed the company in no time (burning a billion pound cash mountain in the process).
Guglielmo Marconi's original 1897 company was bought by GEC in 1968. The defence arm merged with British Aerospace in 1999 to form BAE systems (FTSE100), while the telecomms business was floated as Marconi plc, which was bought by Ericsson in 2005.The only significant business impact is engine manufacture where the big firms still saw that as a profitable specialism (JLR killed the X-Type because it made more profit for Ford selling its engine and other components than JLR).
The X-type had been in production for 8 years by the time it was discontinued in 2009, a year after Ford sold Jaguar to Tata. JLR continued to use the same Puma diesel in the Defender until the end of production in 2016, and still use v6 and v8 Ford diesels in the upper-end models.
ZF aren't just automotive engineering - they're in the rail, marine and aviation industries, too, having started by producing gears for Zeppelins - hence the Z...
Most of the big tier-1 automotive engineering suppliers are simply divisions of much larger organisations.0 -
I'm not sure what point you are trying to make, Mr C. I was simply observing that there are different strategies for companies to deal with their markets disappearing underneath them, each of those at some time made a strategic choice on how to deal with weaknesses in their core business: you can follow the transformation that your market takes into new and unfamiliar products; or you move out entirely and try something else; or you stay put and try and manage in a declining market. There are companies who have succeeded and failed with any of those strategies.
The core car manufacturing business is fairly secure - the move to EV does not change the need for big, safe metal boxes with rubber at the corner. Aside from engine manufacture, most companies farm out component manufacture to third parties, whether they are large or small. The car companies can weather the storm of moving out of engine manufacture, electric engines aren't exciting enough engineering to treat as anything but commodity, they can always invest in or take over appropriate companies if they are interested.0 -
I'm merely correcting and clarifying the statements you made about the various companies you introduced to demonstrate your points.IanMSpencer wrote: »I'm not sure what point you are trying to make
I'm sure we'd all prefer facts raised to be complete and accurate, wouldn't we?0 -
Gloomendoom wrote: »How long did it take to fill up?
It's almost always going to take longer to recharge than to fill a fuel tank (unless the queue to pay is terrible), and people will still claim EV's are no use because they drive for 4 hours, stop for 2 minutes to refuel and drive another 4 hours, or whatever.
The reason EV's aren't as big a deal is that for everyone else, stopping every 2 hours or so and having a wander/pee/coffee, the car is sitting charging without any need for you to be standing beside it. Say you stop every 2 hours on a long motorway trek - 140 miles. 40kw Leaf 2.zero has a range of 235 miles, so you're potentially only charging it half way which may only take about 15 minutes. You can easily spent 15 minutes in a service station if there are a few of you. With 2 kids we're likely to be stopping at least every 2 hours.
Give it another generation (of car) and we could be seeing EV's with ranges in the 400+ mile range, when you'll only need to stop to charge for 30ish minutes every 5.5 hours. That still won't suit some people, but the number of people for whom there's a tangible reason an EV doesn't suit will diminish rapidly with each generation.
The big problem is peak demand - there have already been horror stories about queues to get to chargers on bank holiday weekends. So there's a lot of infrastructure required before they really take off.0 -
Hi
Isn't that effectively a cutaway of a complete motor with a simplified drive mechanics assembly, complete with coolant & electronics all contained in one modular assembly? ... if so, I can't really see that being an issue anywhere ...
I wasn't highlighting any issues, merely pointing out that manufacturers of components like traditional gearboxes are not necessarily going to be "toast" as a result of increasing electrification. ZF, for example, has embraced the changes and diversified into complete EV motor/transmission packages and control systems etc.0
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