Don't bother with Free Postcode Lottery

Lrimas · 8 December 2016 at 3:02PM

While it will take 750 years to win at least once if the events are related (in other words, if they remove the postcodes that win decreasing the amount of postcodes in the pool), it is just a number in unrelated events. The probability that you will win big once in 750 years is 63%. After 2000 years you will have a 93% chance of winning at least once. The chance of winning it once in your lifetime (in 80 years) is just 10%. This is ignoring the fact that more people are signing on each day decreasing the chance even more.

If I use your example and simplify it drastically to: If you flip a coin once a day for two days, what is the chance that you will get heads at least once.

The coin has a 1/2 chance of landing on heads. So (I'm using your calculations here) after two days you have 2 / 2 = a one in 1 chance of winning on the second day.

This is simply not true as you only have a 75% chance of winning at least once over the two days. The problem is that the two events are unrelated. In other words, the chance of you winning it the second day is not guaranteed if you don't win it the first day, it is still just a 50% chance.

So... the chance of something happening at least once in a sequence of unrelated events is: 1-(the probility of it not happening)^(the amount of times tried)

So if I use the coin flip example, the chance of it happening at least once over two days: 1-(1-0.5)^2 = 0.75
The chance of it happening at least once over 5 days: 1-(1-0.5)^5= 0.97

If I go back to your example, the chance that it will happen once a year is:
1-(1-1/273661)^365 = 0.13329% (this is actually fairly close to the 0.1333% that you got, but that's just because it is so small).

The chance of it happening once in 750 years is: 1-(1-1/273661)^(365*750)

(Sorry, I've been doing way too many matched betting casino offers recently

)

tiggs9693 · 13 September 2017 at 9:54AM

For free, I think its worth a shot. Been playing for over 3 years. Won£500 once . that may not be life changing, but for free its a very welcome bonus! It does take a few mins but it doesn't cost- for me, personally, something for nothing is great. Each to their own. :j

mikep22 · 13 September 2017 at 10:08AM

OK so Im not reading all this and I dont partake in this competition.

My outlook with things like this is if it is free then taking a couple of minutes out of your day (or week, depending on how frequent it is) - is no big deal really. Check it while watching a swagbuck video or something.

Not sure what your point is about the chances of winning, of course its small, the competition is free. If it wasnt like that then it probably wouldnt be free.

Its not like these guys owe you anything....

droopsnoot · 13 September 2017 at 11:46AM

Raspberry_Queen wrote: »

The difference with the lottery is that you don't have to check it every single day, it's much less time consuming, and the potential rewards are life-changing.

It also costs money and, if you think the odds against winning the Free Postcode Lottery are high, you should calculate the odds against winning a life-changing amount on the national lottery.

To each their own - I used to do the lottery, and stopped when they hiked the price up. I got a few small wins, nothing over about £70, and nowhere near what I'd spent in ticket costs. I just don't do any of them now.

Tammykitty · 13 September 2017 at 11:53AM

Just took me 1 min to check all draws (Except quidco etc)

Balrog · 25 September 2017 at 5:07PM

I won £10 on the stackpot plus £15 with my bonus added. £25 paid into my Paypal account the very next day. Ok it's not a fortune, but it cost me nothing, unlike the national lottery which cost me £4 a week for nothing.

Bextow · 25 September 2017 at 5:50PM

I won £750 last Christmas, do I think it's a waste of time, no blooming way!

asdesigned · 26 September 2017 at 5:41PM

It's a free draw so I do not see the harm? Do I think I will win big every time I check, No. Do I think it is better to at least try, Yes. The odds of winning the Euromillions is 1 in 139,838,160! Yet people will happy drop £2.50 each on a ticket or two.
O.k it is a life changing amount, but the significantly reduced odds of winning the Euromillions and paying as well isn't worth it to me, whereas the potential to win a grand for a minute of my lunch is.

Nictastic · 28 September 2017 at 4:15PM

I won £10 on the stackpot draw back in February. Not a huge amount but every little bit helps.

Chesapeake · 29 September 2017 at 1:35PM

My other half won £10 the other week which isn't bad for a few minutes work.

I play the usual lottery, I reckon £10 in exchange for the chance to win £157million is better odds than anything else!

Don't bother with Free Postcode Lottery

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