Housing market move given Brexit and interest rise

Skag · 7 October 2017 at 2:22PM

I was wondering what you think will be the housing market move in the next 6-12 months given the uncertainty with Brexit and the coming interest rates rise(s).
I would assume that since cost of borrowing will rise, and also BTL is becoming less affordable and efficient, will the (high geared) BTL owners start selling and prices will start to fall?
Consequently will it be a good market for those who are looking to buy but couldn't afford so far? Though this will cost a bit more given the interest rates hike.

Do you agree with the above?
I live in London and have observed the last weeks that new properties are coming in the market for lower prices that used to say half a year or one year ago.

theartfullodger · 7 October 2017 at 2:33PM

Brexsh*t is going to sadly seriously damage the financial prospects of so many areas, including housing.

We've already had the 1st direct trade deal: HUGE extra tariffs of British exports to USofA of Bombadier series C.

I weep for my country.

Surrey_EA · 7 October 2017 at 2:45PM

Who really knows? A rate rise has been expected for a while now, and not yet materialised, although I agree it is becoming to seem more likely. Even if rates do rise I think it will be by a small amount, perhaps only by 0.25% or 0.5% over the next 18 months.

Brexit is a totally unknown quantity, and it's really difficult to predict what impact it's going to have.

The housing market rarely responds to logic and reason, too much human emotion involved.

You may be better posting on "The Debate House Prices & the Economy Board" where similar threads are already running:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=149

jimbog · 7 October 2017 at 3:24PM

You will get a better debate in the debate forum:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=149

tberry6686 · 7 October 2017 at 5:01PM

theartfullodger wrote: »

Brexsh*t is going to sadly seriously damage the financial prospects of so many areas, including housing.

We've already had the 1st direct trade deal: HUGE extra tariffs of British exports to USofA of Bombadier series C.

I weep for my country.

Bombadier had nothing to do with brexit. Give up the remoaning. Brexit will happen and no one knows what the outcome will be at this point.

juniordoc · 8 October 2017 at 10:14AM

Inflation, stagnant wages and rate rises will limit people's ability to buy. However this government is not building nearly enough houses to cope with our growing/ageing population so house prices will be propped up by that as long as some people can afford to buy.
Sadly I think the divide will just get bigger and bigger between those who can afford to buy (with the help of their parents) and those who cannot.

jimbo747 · 8 October 2017 at 10:46AM

We can keep building houses until there isn't a single bit of green belt left, and at some point in the future it still won't be enough. There are plenty of houses in the UK per sq mile, probably too many.

Problem is population size. Need to reduce population by about 10-20m, ideally by encouraging those in poverty not to have children, and preventing immigration where they're likely to take more out of the system than pay in. Brexit will help solve one of those probelms. Wages will go up, house prices go down, more disposable income therefore less reliance on credit, so less depression, less chance of a crash affecting us and everyone apart from wealthy business owners like me or those investing in property will be happier.

LdnFtB · 8 October 2017 at 11:29AM

UK actually has quite low density. About 97% of the country isn't built on. Even London is about 64% green space. We could quite easily double or even triple the number of houses in this country and the UK would still be over 90% green and pleasant land.

The restrictions on access to finance and removal of tax relief for landlords will have a far greater impact on house prices than Brexit. Landlords have been able to outbid FtB for a long time, until prices have exceeded what FtB can afford. Now that it's uneconomical for landlords to buy houses and flats in London, prices will go down to what FtB can afford.

bob_bank_spanker · 8 October 2017 at 12:17PM

theartfullodger wrote: »

Brexsh*t is going to sadly seriously damage the financial prospects of so many areas, including housing.

We've already had the 1st direct trade deal: HUGE extra tariffs of British exports to USofA of Bombadier series C.

I weep for my country.

What an enormous pile of nonsense. Boeing piling pressure on Trump to stick tariffs on a Canadian company has literally nothing to do with Brexit.

Is this what this country has been reduced to: grown men weeping about an economic process they know almost nothing about. I'm not sure who the real snowflakes are.

Crashy_Time · 8 October 2017 at 1:41PM

LdnFtB wrote: »

UK actually has quite low density. About 97% of the country isn't built on. Even London is about 64% green space. We could quite easily double or even triple the number of houses in this country and the UK would still be over 90% green and pleasant land.

The restrictions on access to finance and removal of tax relief for landlords will have a far greater impact on house prices than Brexit. Landlords have been able to outbid FtB for a long time, until prices have exceeded what FtB can afford. Now that it's uneconomical for landlords to buy houses and flats in London, prices will go down to what FtB can afford.

Yep, this is the game changer, Tory leadership battle during Brexit and the eventual Corbyn government and bond market crisis will be the cherry on top.

Crashy_Time · 8 October 2017 at 1:43PM

jimbog wrote: »

You will get a better debate in the debate forum:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=149

You probably won`t actually :rotfl:

PLEASE READ BEFORE POSTING

Housing market move given Brexit and interest rise

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