Maybe UK govt are not crazy

Martyn1981 · 8 November 2019 at 10:04AM

I'm a bit baffled by the £1,000 BEV question.

Shirley, if an old BEV has a semi-decent battery, then it will save the owner approx £1,000 pa v's an ICE in fuel savings, so it has a value of ~£5k simply by comparison over a 5yr period. Or to put it another way, running a 'free' ICE for 5yrs, v's the BEV, has an opportunity cost of £5k more than running the BEV, and i assume this is something people take/will take into account.

GreatApe · 8 November 2019 at 12:20PM

Martyn1981 wrote: »

I'm a bit baffled by the £1,000 BEV question.

Shirley, if an old BEV has a semi-decent battery, then it will save the owner approx £1,000 pa v's an ICE in fuel savings, so it has a value of ~£5k simply by comparison over a 5yr period. Or to put it another way, running a 'free' ICE for 5yrs, v's the BEV, has an opportunity cost of £5k more than running the BEV, and i assume this is something people take/will take into account.

Yes they will maintain minimum prices around £5k+ because of the fuel tax saving
Until of course fuel taxes are repalced by per mile taxes on all cars

This also brings up an interesting possibility
In the USA petrol costs 65 cents a litre and so about 6 cents a mile
Vs about 3 cents a mile for electricity so there is a $300 a year saving on fuel
That might put a lower cap on prices of $2000
While in the UK lower price cap might be about £5000
So there could be enough of a differential to mass import used electric cars into the UK or other EU nations with expensive fuel taxes From countries with cheap fuel taxes
Especially if the pound goes back up to say £1=$1.50 then it's $2000 BEV in USA Vs $7500 BEV in UK so a huge $5500 incentive to import used BEVs from cheap fuel tax area to expensive fuel tax areas.

Unless some sort of import duty is placed on used cars or some regulations to make this difficult this could play out and it could happen until the differential in price is equal to shipping costs and some level of compensation for the effort

GreatApe · 8 November 2019 at 12:34PM

GreatApe wrote: »

Yes they will maintain minimum prices around £5k+ because of the fuel tax saving
Until of course fuel taxes are repalced by per mile taxes on all cars

This also brings up an interesting possibility
In the USA petrol costs 65 cents a litre and so about 6 cents a mile
Vs about 3 cents a mile for electricity so there is a $300 a year saving on fuel
That might put a lower cap on prices of $2000
While in the UK lower price cap might be about £5000
So there could be enough of a differential to mass import used electric cars into the UK or other EU nations with expensive fuel taxes From countries with cheap fuel taxes
Especially if the pound goes back up to say £1=$1.50 then it's $2000 BEV in USA Vs $7500 BEV in UK so a huge $5500 incentive to import used BEVs from cheap fuel tax area to expensive fuel tax areas.

Unless some sort of import duty is placed on used cars or some regulations to make this difficult this could play out and it could happen until the differential in price is equal to shipping costs and some level of compensation for the effort

Actually this will depend on range of the BEV and use case

The lower range car like the e golf which can only do 85 miles in the winter months motorway when new so is probably down to 70 miles or less is not very useful for long range useage but it's okay for urban useage where it's range is probably 100+ in the winter

An urban user of such a car might do just 5000 miles a year. So that's 100 gallons of fuel at a cost of about £550 X 5yrs = £2750 as a lower end values

Longer range vehicles that are used by people do who 10,000 miles a year night indeed hold a value of circa £5000

This does indeed mean BEVs should depreciate less and is a factor people should take into account

As long as fuel taxes stay high which imo will be the case for at least the next 15 years which is the lifetime of a car

So if buying a petrol golf for £19k and keeping it for 15 years and selling it for £1k loss is £18k
An e golf for £22k and keeping it for 15 years and selling it for perhaps £4k is £18k loss
So about the same thanks to high fuel taxes keeping used BEV prices up

But still I wouldn't go for an e golf since it's only got 85 miles winter motorway range unless you are certain you'd never do more than this

GreatApe · 8 November 2019 at 12:46PM

Martyn1981 wrote: »

approx 2MWh per year.

Approx 30m cars @ 2MWh is approx 60TWh, the figure I've already given yo
So, here we go:
60TWh / 365 days = 164.38GWh of car BEV charging per day
164.38GWh / 12hrs*90% = 12.3GW of car BEV charging per night.

So you say 40GW, I say ~12GW.

You don't factor into account charging losses self discharge and grid losses
Your 60TWh to electrify transportation is probably closer to 90TWh for cars and then add 50% or so for taxis buses vans HGVs etc

But even this is no significant problem and as you say this is a 30 year transition not an overnight transition

The latest off-shore wind prices (and on-shore wind and PV) are now approx at wholesale average prices, meaning that the CfD subsidy scheme will pay out little, possibly nothing, across the 15yr period..

This isn't true because wind power doesn't sell into average output it sells when the wind is high and when the wind is high wholesale prices are low or even zero so there will be a huge continuing subsidy

For no subsidy wind power needs to go towards £25/MWh in today's money not £46/MWh

almillar · 8 November 2019 at 1:53PM

Great Ape

That's the RRP and in the UK no one pays the RRP except for Tesla buyers

Agreed. So why do you keep listing EV RRP prices (not just Tesla) and calling them expensive? RRP of new Zoe is ~£25k with no battery rental to pay. Compare that to Yaris. And you should be comparing a Corolla to a Leaf, not a Tesla. I know I'm not getting through, but I'll keep trying.

Here is the USA price

Again, we're in the UK, and both cars referenced are for sale in the UK. Why can't you stick to UK prices?

Tesla is fractionally bigger 5.9% by volume if you multiply all three dimensions like a cuboid

So it's bigger then, yes?! I assume this excludes the boot and frunk as well. What size is the Corolla's frunk?

The lower range car like the e golf which can only do 85 miles in the winter months motorway when new so is probably down to 70 miles or less is not very useful for long range useage but it's okay for urban useage where it's range is probably 100+ in the winter

The degradation you describe simply isn't happening in the UK, outside of some early Leafs. Stop it, or prove it. Age, mileage, and degredation amount.

Solarchaser

It's very convenient to charge, much more convenient than filling at a petrol station, as it's already parked on the drive way, you just plug it in.

Agree, agree, agree...

Martyn1981 · 8 November 2019 at 2:31PM

Solarchaser wrote: »

It's very convenient to charge, much more convenient than filling at a petrol station, as it's already parked on the drive way, you just plug it in.

But then you have to stand there and wait 12hrs, right?

spadoosh · 8 November 2019 at 2:41PM

joefizz wrote: »

Coincidently (or maybe not ;-)) a research request for exactly this arrived in my inbox this week. Mostly around trucks/public transport but at least some people are seriously looking at it...

Do we not call this a railway?

GreatApe · 8 November 2019 at 4:10PM

almillar wrote: »

Agreed. So why do you keep listing EV RRP prices (not just Tesla) and calling them expensive? RRP of new Zoe is ~£25k with no battery rental to pay. Compare that to Yaris. And you should be comparing a Corolla to a Leaf, not a Tesla. I know I'm not getting through, but I'll keep trying.

I've quoted actual obtainable prices for the leaf the e golf and the Tesla not RRP I've even compared the regular golf to the e golf

Petrol golf £18,664
E golf £22,644 after government £3.5k grant
So £4000 more expensive

The only problem is I don't think the e golf is suitable replacement for the majority
It's only got about 85 miles winter motorway range which imo isn't suitable

Again, we're in the UK, and both cars referenced are for sale in the UK. Why can't you stick to UK prices?

USA market is more important it's almost 10z the size

So it's bigger then, yes?! I assume this excludes the boot and frunk as well. What size is the Corolla's frunk?

Oh my god there is a frunk? Why didn't anyone tell me!!! I'll buy ten toight when I get home!
I have been crying all these decades for an ICE with a second small boot at the front. This is a game changer it has changed the game!!

The degradation you describe simply isn't happening in the UK, outside of some early Leafs. Stop it, or prove it. Age, mileage, and degredation amount.

All batteries degrade you're just arguing about percentages

leviathan · 8 November 2019 at 4:41PM

Martyn1981 wrote: »

IIf you think I'm being at all aggressive in my response, then pop yourself in my shoes for a second, as I've being responding to the same false claims you are making, for around 5yrs, and I think it's incredibly rude and aggressive to post such inflammatory and false information on a green and ethical board when you simply don't know what you are talking about.

You are being rude and agreesive in your reply which was uncalled for since I was being neither. Yep, I made a mistake on the KW vs KWh since a leaf inst going to charge in such a time. So sue me.

However if it is as simple as you claim (and your numbers are open for dispute, you can't siumply say grid losses are only 8% without proof and oh yes I can go find the link which says they are between 10-15% but I CBA) why is everyone in the industry up in arms about the grid and generation not having enough capacity?

Then we are only talking about cars. Trucks need to be on the road every day for 200+ miles. That isn't going to work if they need to be on charge. Since you've been on this for around 5yrs plus what the answer to that?
And all teh things with do with hydrocarbons that can be done with electricity but at a huge cost in energy terms./

TBH I haven't the time or energy

to nit pick your response. I haven't devoted 5 years to thinking about it unlike yourself. But you've taken best case scenarios as people usually do to try and make their point and it bores me. I could come back, correct my mistakes and so on. But I realise you are a zealot with 5 years of his life wasted arguing about it, thus I wont waste my time further.

My apologies for triggering you.

EricMears · 8 November 2019 at 5:26PM

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But then you have to stand there and wait 12hrs, right?

Not unless you're totally insane !

Most of us plug it in and go to bed. As if by magic full range is restored by dawn.

Maybe UK govt are not crazy

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