Electric cars

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  • zeupater
    zeupater Posts: 5,353
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    edited 18 July 2019 at 9:08PM
    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    Could be down to the FUDsters! Elon seems to have gotten fed up with their pointless gibberish, and has suggested trying to finance future expansion (such as the TMY) through cash receipts rather than finance.

    That in itself is a shame, since the environmental issues, partly why he got into this game in the first place, are pressing and speed is of the essence.

    But then we'd just have to sit through more months and years of FUD posts from the anti-Tesla/EV fool. Hard to know which is worse. :D
    Hi

    There's a pretty logical chain in what's happening ... vehicle, processors, AI, powerpack, autonomy, infrastructure, launch solutions, space, communications, neural interfacing, Moon, Moonbase, staging post, Mars ... each link providing technology & financial support to the next point in the chain ... reads like a science fiction novel or film plot doesn't it (who knows, that may have been EM's original spark!), but the constant throughout is to drive momentum & the necessary focus to deliver volumes well above & prices well below what existing markets deem acceptable or even possible ....

    Looking at Tesla cars, if the goal is to halt the growth & then accelerate the reduction in carbon emissions through electrification of transport in the most rapid way, then why not concentrate focus to where this can best be achieved with as much support as possible, hence China ...

    Push to solve the climatic problem related to transport there & you're doing just as much as anywhere else in a globally connected ecosystem so it's just as valid as doing so in Europe or elsewhere, but it'll just happen faster .... the payback to China for throwing resources & money at this approach is visibility (own population & globally) of what they're doing on the climatic front & establishing a position which may counter any potential moves to enforce some form of embodied carbon taxation on exported goods in the future, plus the establishment of an overwhelming experience, technology & cost base advantage in the EV manufacturing sector which we may all become aware of in around a decade unless the legacy manufacturers wake up and recognise the position they find themselves in and react pretty quickly ...

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    B)
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,713
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    zeupater wrote: »
    Hi

    Push to solve the climatic problem related to transport there & you're doing just as much as anywhere else in a globally connected ecosystem so it's just as valid as doing so in Europe or elsewhere, but it'll just happen faster .... the payback to China for throwing resources & money at this approach is visibility (own population & globally) of what they're doing on the climatic front & establishing a position which may counter any potential moves to enforce some form of embodied carbon taxation on exported goods in the future, plus the establishment of an overwhelming experience, technology & cost base advantage in the EV manufacturing sector which we may all become aware of in around a decade unless the legacy manufacturers wake up and recognise the position they find themselves in and react pretty quickly ...

    HTH
    Z

    Yeah, makes sense to concentrate on China I suppose, as BMW have solved Europe/US with plans to launch a 2015 Nissan Leaf in 2020 - that's to say, the Mini with high price and small range (130 real miles).

    When that BMW exec said the future of EV's wasn't that promising, perhaps he was only looking at their plans?
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,713
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    Here's an article with Elon responding to Motor Trend's decision to award the 2013 Tesla Model S (its car of the year that year) the title of ultimate car of the year of all the 70 years they've been awarding the title.

    Elon Musk Tells Motor Trend About The Origins Of The Tesla Model S
    “‘Well I don’t know,’ Musk answered. ‘It’s surprising to us. I thought the industry would have had cars that are competitive to the Model S well before now because as we were talking about—the Model S debuted in 2009, and even if people thought, “Well, that’s an impossible car to build,” which conventional wisdom said that the Model S was an impossible car to build, and there were many articles written to that effect.

    “‘But once we started delivering them to customers and they were approved by the regulators and met all of the safety requirements, it’s like, the Model S has got the best safety rating that NHTSA had ever tested of any car. I really expected that there would be within maybe three years or something, we’d have something that was better than the original Model S. But I guess the car industry is just fairly slow to evolve, and it didn’t take electric vehicles really seriously until 2015, maybe 2014 you could say.'”


    From Business Insider:
    "The Model S changed the way the world thinks not only about electric cars but also about cars in general," MotorTrend's William Walker wrote. "Divorce the car from the controversies and polarized opinions of the company and its mercurial CEO, and it remains clear there isn't another vehicle created during our 70 years of existence that has had a truly comparable effect on automobiles, the automotive industry, and society at large."
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • almillar
    almillar Posts: 8,621
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    Regarding the ZE50 price & UK specifications not having been released ... it's effectively impossible to hide behind this yet again

    I'm not hiding. We're talking about UK pricing, and it hasn't been announced. If it's in line with the European stuff, the price is too high, and it does push Zoe 2 into Model 3 (and bloody 3 Series!) territory. For a supermini. But the price has not been announced, and we don't even know if they're going to stick with a battery rental model in the UK.
  • zeupater
    zeupater Posts: 5,353
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    edited 19 July 2019 at 1:39PM
    almillar wrote: »
    I'm not hiding. We're talking about UK pricing, and it hasn't been announced. If it's in line with the European stuff, the price is too high, and it does push Zoe 2 into Model 3 (and bloody 3 Series!) territory. For a supermini. But the price has not been announced, and we don't even know if they're going to stick with a battery rental model in the UK.
    Hi

    In principle I agree that a UK price for the ZE50 hasn't been announced, but that doesn't resolve to not being able to analyse what it's likely to be from sources elsewhere in Europe and other associated data ....

    Performing a simple audit analysis of on-the-road pricing of LHD models currently being built in the EU and sold in the eurozone compared their RHD equivalents in the UK shows quite a high level of consistency, which suggests that UK prices are closely aligned to those published for Germany (& elsewhere!) with the normal RHD, applicable tax & currency exchange risks accounted for in the normal way probably resulting in a straight € to £ equivalence at current exchange rates ... however, there's always the chance that uncertainty around the UK/EU trade relations will be seen as increasing currency risk (Pound buying less Euros!) which may well result in higher UK list prices until deals are sealed & the current spate of currency fluctuations subside.

    Regarding battery ownership .... so far the battery lease/rental seems to still be there ... for example the list price differential between leased and owned battery options on the ZE50 in Germany is to be consistent at €8090 throughout the range ... all of the price comparisons to other models made have been based on the owned battery sales model as this is the only logical & fair approach.

    Taking €8090/52 suggests ~€156 / £140 / $175 per kWh of battery capacity, which seems reasonable for a fully assembled module at current cell prices, so this suggests that much of the cost differential between the vehicle excluding the battery & a standard ICE vehicle in the same sector will be component volume related as there's little in assembly or component complexity which would explain what is effectively a ~(€/£)10k price difference for a vehicle with no battery to one with an empty fuel tank!

    ... as you say, "If it's in line with the European stuff, the price is too high, and it does push Zoe 2 into Model 3 (and bloody 3 Series!) territory." with the realisation that this would be "For a supermini." competing with larger format sector vehicles from what are widely considered as being premium brands ...

    Now, taking this step further - in this set of comparisons it's not just Renault that have a problem, BMW have the same basic quandary, but for them it's effectively worse ...

    The i3 is priced at similar levels to the ZE50 but currently has a far lower range ... of course this shortfall can currently be sold as being due to a differential in brand aspiration, BMWs tend to sell at a premium to many other brands throughout their respective ranges. The issue for them now is where the TM3 sits physically as a unit sales competitor to their current ICE equivalent (that will be 3- series!) and where the TM3 sits price wise ... :think:

    :shhh: ... :eek: ... did anyone hear some jaws drop there?! ... yes, logic would dictate that in order to compete and maintain 3 series equivalent sales in the EV sector, BMW will not only need to be able to play catch up with Tesla on efficiency & technology grounds, but also be able to sell those electrified vehicles for the same price as they currently do for their ICE 3 series range ... that's a very tall order now, but in the meantime, Tesla are both reducing their cost base & amortising development & tooling costs over increased volumes so it's only going to get harder ...

    That's why I maintain that senior management of the European automotive sector has been complacent towards the EV threat: they were content to paddle along slowly in the belief that they were in control of the rate of change, closely followed by the huge error in being very slow to recognise that momentum being gained by a technology disruptor would allow that company to power through their business models at a rate which they'd discounted for no other reason other than they were unwilling to accept that others would dare to take the necessary decisions that they themselves wouldn't!

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    B)
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,713
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    Looks like Toyota are less-slowly moving towards EV's now, though I assume they haven't, yet, given up on FC's.

    Ever greater emphasis on electrification, though this will of course include PHEV's (or 'self charging electric vehicles' if you're particularly gullible).

    China's starting to look like 'the One Ring', ruling and binding all others, if we don't get serious about EV's soon. Tesla (and Nissan/Renault treading water) can't do it on their own. :D

    Breaking: Toyota & BYD To Jointly Develop EVs & Batteries In New Deal
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • RichardD1970
    RichardD1970 Posts: 3,794
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    New MG ZS fully electric for £21,500.

    Decent enough cars, 160+ miles, 7 year warranty inc battery.

    Interesting.

    https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/fully-electric-mg-zs-will-only-cost-ps21500
  • silverwhistle
    silverwhistle Posts: 3,775
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    edited 21 July 2019 at 1:49PM
    The MG is a good illustration of what Zeupater is talking about. I've seen some reviews and they're pretty positive, the quality seems there. The price quoted is for the first 1000 buyers, but unlike the e-niro availability seems better, and the Chinese drive towards EVs domestically is now beginning to impact other markets, with volumes that will make a difference.

    Mind you, I look out the window at my current car - just been sat here renewing my insurance - and realise there is no way I'm spending 20 grand on any car! There's a way to go before EVs reach my market sector!

    It would be good though if more hire companies and fleets could start mopping them up and keeping to a 2 year replacement programme, as it's only when a proper second hand market exists that we'll know the EV revolution is really going mainstream.

    And Renault, give up battery leases, it's just an unwanted layer of complication, a typical financial product which only really benefits the finance company.
  • NBLondon
    NBLondon Posts: 5,517
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    It would be good though if more hire companies and fleets could start mopping them up and keeping to a 2 year replacement programme, as it's only when a proper second hand market exists that we'll know the EV revolution is really going mainstream.
    That's an excellent point. Not sure if the mainstream hire companies like e.g Enterrpise will take the risk yet - how would they get around the issue of hirers with range anxiety? Maybe there's a niche market for people who have an electric city car and want to hire something bigger once in a while?
    Car clubs could be the way in - there's a gaggle of Zip cars in my bit of South London including e-Golfs which are mostly 67 plates. Could they be coming on the market soon?
    Wash your Knobs and Knockers... Keep the Postie safe!
  • DrEskimo
    DrEskimo Posts: 2,337
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    I imagine 0% BIK next year for EVs will make them very attractive for company car fleets. Believe it will only raise a percentage point over the next few years too.

    As you say, that will really boost the second hand market. This is assuming the supply of cars like The e-Niro and Kona actually starts to ramp up....still a 12-month wait for an order I believe...
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