Stocking up for Brexit

-taff wrote: »

That's not logical. As the supermarkets stock as soon as it's off the shelves anyone hoarding or prepping now would be in no way responsible for shortages. Lack of imports would.

Its stress on the supply chain due to erratic demand. Its very logical that it will cause supply issues.

Lets say theres a 10% increase in rice sales this month in preparation. Rice stocks were eating are from last seasons harvest, the farmers produced x amoutn for x demand. If that demand increases its going to lead to price increases and supply issues.

Its economics 1.01 just supply and demand. The thing here is though the demand hasnt increased due to increased consumption so not out of necessity.

Ill refer you back to the petrol strikes (that didnt even happen!). Shortly before poeple started topping up their cars more often and keeping them full, now obviously this doesnt effect consumption but it moves the goods out of where theyre available to everyone (the forecourt) and in to privately owned hands (fuel tank). This led to people who couldnt get petrol easily and priority being given to emergency vehicles.


This doesnt detract from people being prepared, its practical and sensible. When it directly causes problems for others (Remembering a woman was seriously injured as a result of the petrl strikes and people dont need petrol in the same sense as food) its detrimental.

GDB2222 wrote: »

That sounds very dramatic, Spadoosh, until you work out the numbers:-

We normally use 25,000 tons of rice a month in this country. An extra 10% is 2,500 tons. That's not going to make much of a dent in world rice production, which is 700,000,000 tons a year.

2500 tons sounds like a lot to ship, but it's only a tiny corner (1-2%) of the capacity of a single large bulk carrier.

I agree there'll be a problem if a lot of people leave it until the last possible moment and then panic. There'll be long queues at the shops and shortages. But, stuff bought now in an orderly fashion, will just be replenished easily.

As long as it's not perishable quickly (so rice is a very good example), it's stuff you'll use anyway, and you can store it easily, there's no cost to you and certainly no cost to anyone else.

The idea that purchases now will cause a crisis later is just nonsense. It will either have no effect at all, or it will help relief pressure if there's a crisis. Someone suggested giving stocks away to food banks. The time to do that is if there's a crisis caused by panic-buying, not now.

The irony of you calling me dramatic after panic buying obviously escapes you.

When you buy erratically, you cause issues in the supply chain.

The year we had the fuel crisis in the UK was a year when the world produced more oil than ever before. And yet we still had supply issues in the UK. And it is simply down to the fact that demand outstripped supply due to unforeseen jumps in demand, the strike never actually happened. People just thought it would and bought loads of petrol they didnt really need depriving others who didnt do that. The logistics of meeting unexpected demand cause supply issues.

Again remember people said they could just get more oil, it stores easily, there isnt a cost to others (yet prices rose) and we fell short in meeting demand.

So the country has just ordered a load of extra rice, tesco have placed its orders with its suppliers, now how long is it before that rice gets put back on the shelves? Its not a week is it? Its nearer a month at best, and thats assuming their supplier has the excess available to purchase, we of course could offer more money and theyd be more inclined to take our order, but then it does cost more.

For what its worth my 10% figure was arbitrary so it seems pointless you googling the carrying capacity of container ships and world rice production.

-taff wrote: »

I would think any supermarket had already worked out that there is going to be some prepping going on and adjusted their stock accordingly in the last six months at least.
They wouldn't use those figures against projected demand, they would probably use last years projected demand with a bit added on for hysteria.

There's no right answer to any of this, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't in the eyes of whichever side of the fence a poster lies on.
I don't think stocking up cupboards if you can is a bad move at all, just in general, otherwise you're just like a supermarket having a just in time food plan.
And I still think it's not logial to blame people stocking up now for future shortages, because the amount being sold for prepping is going to be a drop in the ocean of goods available.

If it came to a panic buy at the end of March due to a no deal then I would understand due to imports being affected. But a SM model can absorb the prepping currently going on without causing future shortages.

Youd hope they would but then they came out a only a few weeks ago suggesting they wouldnt be able to put food on the shelves hence why the OP feels compelled to buy more.

we cant import an additional 1 tonne of rice for next week never mind however many additionally have been sold. It takes time to ship it.

Ive got nothing against the OP. theyre looking after themself and im not arguing that. Im pointing out the consequences of that is youre a lot more likely to contribute to the outcome youre trying to mitigate.