Woodford Concerns

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Hi guys,

Like most people invested in the Woodford Equity income it is very depressing and worrying.

I have around 50k invested and have obviously lost on this due to his poor performance recently.

I don't need access to the money so am happy to hold and wait until Brexit is done and for the UK to pick up.


My concern and my main question to the people in the know here is can funds completely tank. By this I mean is it possibly that an investor could lose all of the money they have invested in fund? Can the fund go bust?

I am thinking of getting out due to this concern.

Thanks
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Comments

  • Malthusian
    Malthusian Posts: 10,938 Forumite
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    There is no chance of the fund falling to zero. It is invested in too many companies, even if they are almost all mid-sized and smaller.

    However with the fund's significant exposure to unlisted companies, it could lose pretty much any figure above that. The possibility of a permanent loss (i.e. the fund falls and never recovers no matter how long you wait) is significant, unlike a vanilla equity income fund invested in a widely diversified portfolio of blue-chips. If you are not comfortable with taking that risk in the hope that it eventually comes good, the fund is unsuitable.

    When I say "any figure above that", I don't think it's likely to lose, say, 95%, but it's virtually impossible to put a robust figure on the maximum realistic short-term loss, without far more research than I am going to conduct for free.

    If it falls by say 50% and never fully recovers, "at least it didn't lose all my money" isn't going to be much consolation from the sound of your post.

    Brexit is already priced in and is irrelevant. All Woodford's obscure unlisted nags could tank or go bust completely even if Brexit is a smashing success.
  • Malthusian
    Malthusian Posts: 10,938 Forumite
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    The other risk to consider is that the fund has to close and wind up, crystallising any losses and removing the ability of investors to hang on and hope.

    To date Woodford has met redemptions by selling off the liquid holdings and holding on to the illiquid ones - going to the extreme length of bending the rules on how much he is allowed to hold in unlisted companies. By classifying equities as "listed" when they are actually listed in Guernsey and there are milkcows changing hands more frequently than these shares, or by swapping shares with his Patient Capital trust.

    If redemptions continued at a high enough rate, eventually there would come a time where Woodford couldn't meet withdrawals on a daily basis while simultaneously keeping up the pretense of complying with the maximum holding on unlisted equities, and would have to close the fund to withdrawals to give enough time to sell the unlisted holdings and avoid fire-sale prices as far as possible. I can't see the fund surviving that.
  • El_Torro
    El_Torro Posts: 1,463 Forumite
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    You say you have £50k invested in Woodford. Out of interest, what percentage of your total investments is this? A fund like Woodford shouldn't really have a large percentage of your total investments.


    I know I'm being wise after the fact, and it doesn't really help your current situation, just something for others to consider when looking at investing in a fund like this.


    As others have mentioned in other threads about Woodford (there are quite a few on this board), if you think that another fund, e.g. a global multi asset fund, is going to grow faster than Woodford in the coming years, then why not transfer your money out now rather than later?
  • Jonah01
    Jonah01 Posts: 267 Forumite
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    edited 23 May 2019 at 11:41AM
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    Thank you for everyone's replies.

    Obviously I am learning the hard way. This is my only investment currently.

    Being naive and when the good times were rolling I put off diversifying at a cost of course.

    Just trying to make sure my next decision is the right one but am slightly concerned of chasing my losses.

    I am completely happy to wait for a fund to recover and sit through bad times but with this it doesn't quite seem to be as simple as that.
  • Seabee42
    Seabee42 Posts: 448 Forumite
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    Forget past performance for the moment do you believe investing in that fund is the current best chance for your fund to grow in future? I appreciate your already invested financially and emotionally, if you were picking fresh would you pick this fund.
  • Jonah01
    Jonah01 Posts: 267 Forumite
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    edited 23 May 2019 at 12:23PM
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    Seabee42 wrote: »
    Forget past performance for the moment do you believe investing in that fund is the current best chance for your fund to grow in future? I appreciate your already invested financially and emotionally, if you were picking fresh would you pick this fund.

    I know. If I wouldn't buy it now with new money then I should sell. It is easy to be in denial with investing, as though you refuse to admit you made a mistake and want the fund to turn around to prove you right when your brain is telling you to cut your losses and move on.

    I was of the belief (probably wrongly) that once Brexit was done and it was quite a soft Brexit then the UK would start flying. I still believe this could happen and his fund could really start recovering but with the increasing bad publicity he is receiving, his poor decisions and the ever ongoing saga of leaving the EU I struggle to see it happening soon. In the meantime people are pulling their money out of his fund which is just making the problems worse for him.

    I am tempted to just sell and go into the lindsell train global equity and UK equity.

    Is what is happening to Woodford and his fund considered exceptional? Not in terms of the down turn in performance but the bad press, people exiting his fund etc? Or is this a regular occurrence among funds.
  • dunstonh
    dunstonh Posts: 116,371 Forumite
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    I have around 50k invested and have obviously lost on this due to his poor performance recently

    So, that would indicate you have a portfolio of around £500,000 or maybe closer to around £300,000 if you have a home bias.

    This being a single sector fund, you shouldn't be investing in it in isolation. It should be held in a portfolio of other single sector funds with weightings appropriate for your risk level. If you are in this in isolation then that is bad investing and you should make changes now.
    I was of the belief (probably wrongly) that once Brexit was done and it was quite a soft Brexit then the UK would start flying.

    The UK stockmarket has been a near bottom performer consistently for the last 25 or more years. Brexit is a recent issue.
    I am tempted to just sell and go into the lindsell train global equity and UK equity.

    How do they fit with your wider portfolio?
    Is what is happening to Woodford and his fund considered exceptional?Not in terms of the down turn in performance but the bad press, people exiting his fund etc?

    Usual media. Build them up and then knock them down.
    Or is this a regular occurrence among funds.
    No. most fund managers keep a low profile.
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
  • Jonah01
    Jonah01 Posts: 267 Forumite
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    "Thank you for everyone's replies.

    Obviously I am learning the hard way. This is my only investment currently."


    I am looking to steady the sinking ship in the short term and the two Lindsell funds are obviously performing well and invest in well established companies.

    I am thinking the UK and the global fund might be enough diversity for 50k.

    Just a thought. It seems like a no brainer to me to get out. What are the other people thinking that make up the 4 billion already invested?
  • Midas
    Midas Posts: 596 Forumite
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    Jonah01 wrote: »
    "Thank you for everyone's replies.

    Obviously I am learning the hard way. This is my only investment currently."


    I am looking to steady the sinking ship in the short term and the two Lindsell funds are obviously performing well and invest in well established companies.

    I am thinking the UK and the global fund might be enough diversity for 50k.

    Just a thought. It seems like a no brainer to me to get out. What are the other people thinking that make up the 4 billion already invested?

    Hi Jonah

    I recently got out of Woodford. I had held accumulation units since launch so did make a small paper profit, but a very miserable one given the time period, and especially when sat alongside my other holdings which have done much, much better (Lindsell Train UK being the most obvious point of comparison). My only regret was not getting out much sooner. Reading discussions on here I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't touch Woodford with a barge pole if investing now, so why was I still holding? The fund has totally failed to recover from the dip in the markets at the end of last year, and stood out like as a sore thumb as the only one of my holdings not to have done so. Looking more deeply into where Woodford was investing my money, I came to the conclusion he was holding too many duff companies for my liking. Some in his fund, like the housebuilders are probably due a rally at some point (post-Brexit) but overall, why I tend to agree with Woodford that the UK market is undervalued and that there will be a post-Brexit bounce, IMHO there are better ways to position to hopefully benefit from this.
    Midas.
  • Midas
    Midas Posts: 596 Forumite
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    but, £50k all in one fund.. what were you thinking :eek:
    Midas.
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