MSE News: Unemployment drops sharply – so are interest rates set to rise?
Comments
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How many people are the ones who have gone from the breadline to no benefits so forced to work long hours for at most the same breadline they had on benefits if not worse.
As for the rise of employment does that take into account immigrants into work i.e its all fine to say that its risen but if the positions are filled by immigrants coming across to work then the British worker is still unemployed but the figures still go up.0 -
Probably Christmas jobs, so just a blip.0
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These employment statistics are questionable and have been based on dubious definitions of which I will give some examples. The most striking is the definition of employment. I don't know anyone who could subsist on an hour's pay a week.
From the DWP website:Key terms:
• Employed – at least an hour’s paid work a week
• Unemployed (ILO definition) – looked for work in the last 4 weeks and
available to start job within 2 weeks, or waiting to start a job.
• Economically active – employed or unemployed.
• Economically inactive – not seeking or not available for work (or both).
From the ONS report:
Definition of employmentEmployment – Anyone doing one hour or more a week of paid work is counted in the employment figures. This includes people on government supported training programmes if they are engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training. The employment estimates also include unpaid family workers, who work in a family business and benefit from the profits of the business although they do not receive a formal wage or salary.
Claimant countIntroduction of Universal Credit
The Pathfinder for Universal Credit started on 29 April 2013 with the introduction of this new benefit in one Jobcentre Plus office (Ashton under Lyne). The pathfinder was extended to a second Jobcentre Plus office (Wigan) on 1 July 2013 and two further offices (Oldham and
Warrington) joined the pathfinder on 29 July 2013.
The progressive national roll out of Universal Credit across the rest of the UK commenced with Hammersmith Jobcentre Plus office on 28 October 2013 and was followed by Rugby and Inverness Jobcentre Plus offices on 25 November 2013.
Universal Credit will replace a number of means-tested benefits including the means-tested element of Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA). It will not replace contributory based JSA.
The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed.
The Claimant Count estimates from May 2013, published in this Statistical Bulletin, do not include claimants of Universal Credit. The absence of Universal Credit claimants is expected to have a small effect on the Claimant Count from May 2013. This assessment reflects the information published by DWP on 3 December 2013. ONS will include jobseeker Universal Credit claims in the Claimant Count statistics as soon as possible.
I would also like to know how the ONS obtained information on the total number of unpaid family workers included in the employment total.
Also, how many of the "employed" total are individuals who have been counted more than once? e.g. You can work an hour or more as unpaid worker for the family business whilst continuing to work in a full or part time job.
Why aren't journalists reporting or questioning these facts?0 -
Why aren't journalists reporting or questioning these facts?
Real investigative journalism died in the 90's imo, it's all about toeing the official line, career paths and pay in the MSM these days.
Also it has to be said a heck of a lot of apathy and disenfranchised indifference about.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
How many people are the ones who have gone from the breadline to no benefits so forced to work long hours for at most the same breadline they had on benefits if not worse.
As for the rise of employment does that take into account immigrants into work i.e its all fine to say that its risen but if the positions are filled by immigrants coming across to work then the British worker is still unemployed but the figures still go up.
Employment is up, which does incude immigrants, but unemployment is also down, which is good news for everyone.
I understand that some people want to deny that the country is undergoing a rapid, broad-based recovery, but that simply does not match the facts.0 -
Well, obviously Tory Central Office has been recruiting.
Not much signs of improvement in manufacturing, exports or productivity, although that could be because companies have access to cheap labour and aren't investing in training and equipment. No commitment to a zero hours worker who they can get rid off easily.
If I were an interest-only (or even any) mortgage holder I'd be foregoing holidays and spending this year to get my capital reduced whilst interest rates are so low. I pity those for whom things are already tight. If rates do go up let's hope that if some of it goes to savers that they spend, otherwise the economy will really tank. Unfortunately you suspect that the banks will just say thank you, and reinforce their balance sheets.0 -
I understand that some people want to deny that the country is undergoing a rapid, broad-based recovery, but that simply does not match the facts.
What facts? House price bubble?
5 years after the investment banks brought the financial world to its knees, pensioners and savers are still being robbed via artificial interest rates to keep the banks, their housing ponzi and its mortgage welfare recipients afloat.
We were told QE was to help SME, instead the insolvent banks used it to repair their official balance sheets and continue speculating for profit.
Any real recovery, and the jury is still out, is being built on sand.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
Looks like I wasn't too far off the mark with my earlier post
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25868380Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said there is "no immediate need to increase interest rates".
He told BBC Newsnight the case for a rate rise would be examined in next month's inflation report, but that it was important to look at the whole labour market, not just one indicator.
On Wednesday, the jobless rate fell to 7.1%, close to the 7% at which Mr Carney said he would consider a rise.
He also said the change, when it comes, would be very gradual.
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He said that the 7% figure was one that he had used to capture the idea that unemployment was going to have to fall considerably before he would "even begin to think about" raising rates.0 -
any interest rate rises are going to have to be slow......whatever people think, due to the crazy mortgages of the past, people were allowed to use things like tax credits and child benefit as an income to get more of a mortgage (even i got asked by Barclays about it but refused to take this payment into account for my mortgage)
Then they start to take this money away so a double whammy for homeowners is when the rates go up !!
Yes these people deserve all they get but so many are in this situation........0
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