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How much longer will this bear market go on for?

edited 10 November at 10:51AM in Savings & investments
1.6K replies 122K views
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  • Type_45Type_45 Forumite
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    masonic said:
    Type_45 said:
    masonic said:
    Type_45 said:
    If and when such a thing happens in the UK there would be a run on the banks.

    And you think there's enough FSCS money to protect everyone?
    Why speculate about what would happen when the FSCS has already been in a situation during 2008 where it had to pay out £20.9bn in compensation, £20bn of that freshly printed by the Treasury and lent to the FSCS. It took the FSCS 12 years to repay the loan through recoveries from the failing banks and increased levies on financial institutions. The Treasury can create an unlimited supply of money to back the FSCS and would do so. Anyone under the compensation limit will not lose a nominal penny. The consequences of creating the money will be spread between all those who hold GBP and sterling denominated bonds.
    I suppose one of the benefits of driving half the population into poverty this winter is that there will be less demand on the FSCS from savers when your 80% crash happens and the financial system comes crashing down ;)
    Because I don't believe the governments (UK & US) can print their way out of what's coming.  I think they've shot their bolt.  This crash will be bigger (IMO) than GFC and Covid.  There will be no choice but to feel the pain, take the medicine, and spend many years playing catch up.

    Our leaders and banksters making catastrophic policy errors, only to be bailed out and carry on as they were in a broken financial system, cannot carry on much longer.

    When it all comes crashing down all bets are off.  And even if your money is FSCS protected, what would its spending power be like on the other side of this crash?  It could be greatly devalued.  And would be devalued even under your flawless plan of just printing another £trillion to fix the latest crisis.  
    It's not my plan. I don't get to decide anything. It's highly unlikely any bank will come under pressure and require FSCS intervention. I can understand that some people have no living memory of high inflation or recession, and perhaps their worried mind would get the better of them. If I bought into your vision of economic collapse in the slightest I wouldn't be deluded enough to think I can escape the consequences by buying some cryptocurrency and shiny metals. Things are going to get pretty grim in the real world, holding some cash within reason for short term use is a sensible course of action. It is never a good idea to use cash as a long-term investment.

    The currencies are being devalued and crushed.  So I agree they are not a long term investment.  Short term they are best out of the system and/or tied to the value of a commodity which will hold its value and appreciate against a falling GBP.

    When the SHTF everything will fall in price as people will scramble for liquidity.  That includes crypto and metals.  But at least with crypto and metals your money is out of the system.

    Shares in gold/silver ETCs won't be out of the system and are therefore at risk.  But, provided you can still control and access them, their value against GBP/USD should go up as the currencies fall.  At least that is my hope for the portion of my portfolio invested in those ETC entities.

  • edited 3 September at 4:12PM
    masonicmasonic Forumite
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    edited 3 September at 4:12PM
    Type_45 said:
    masonic said:
    Type_45 said:
    masonic said:
    Type_45 said:
    If and when such a thing happens in the UK there would be a run on the banks.

    And you think there's enough FSCS money to protect everyone?
    Why speculate about what would happen when the FSCS has already been in a situation during 2008 where it had to pay out £20.9bn in compensation, £20bn of that freshly printed by the Treasury and lent to the FSCS. It took the FSCS 12 years to repay the loan through recoveries from the failing banks and increased levies on financial institutions. The Treasury can create an unlimited supply of money to back the FSCS and would do so. Anyone under the compensation limit will not lose a nominal penny. The consequences of creating the money will be spread between all those who hold GBP and sterling denominated bonds.
    I suppose one of the benefits of driving half the population into poverty this winter is that there will be less demand on the FSCS from savers when your 80% crash happens and the financial system comes crashing down ;)
    Because I don't believe the governments (UK & US) can print their way out of what's coming.  I think they've shot their bolt.  This crash will be bigger (IMO) than GFC and Covid.  There will be no choice but to feel the pain, take the medicine, and spend many years playing catch up.

    Our leaders and banksters making catastrophic policy errors, only to be bailed out and carry on as they were in a broken financial system, cannot carry on much longer.

    When it all comes crashing down all bets are off.  And even if your money is FSCS protected, what would its spending power be like on the other side of this crash?  It could be greatly devalued.  And would be devalued even under your flawless plan of just printing another £trillion to fix the latest crisis.  
    It's not my plan. I don't get to decide anything. It's highly unlikely any bank will come under pressure and require FSCS intervention. I can understand that some people have no living memory of high inflation or recession, and perhaps their worried mind would get the better of them. If I bought into your vision of economic collapse in the slightest I wouldn't be deluded enough to think I can escape the consequences by buying some cryptocurrency and shiny metals. Things are going to get pretty grim in the real world, holding some cash within reason for short term use is a sensible course of action. It is never a good idea to use cash as a long-term investment.

    The currencies are being devalued and crushed.  So I agree they are not a long term investment.  Short term they are best out of the system and/or tied to the value of a commodity which will hold its value and appreciate against a falling GBP.

    When the SHTF everything will fall in price as people will scramble for liquidity.  That includes crypto and metals.  But at least with crypto and metals your money is out of the system.

    Shares in gold/silver ETCs won't be out of the system and are therefore at risk.  But, provided you can still control and access them, their value against GBP/USD should go up as the currencies fall.  At least that is my hope for the portion of my portfolio invested in those ETC entities.

    If you buy a financial instrument and the financial system collapses, then at best you are left with an asset you could provably stake a claim to, but in no way can practically access. Walk me through the process of how you realise the value in some electronic shares held by HSD nominees (in administration)? It's sometimes hard enough to get your assets out of a bust broker when the financial system is in full working order. As for crypto, it's already been demonstrated that it is correlated with other risk assets, so expect equity-like falls (it's one risk asset that's experienced an 80% crash. Will it continue to crash 80% for each 20% leg down of the S&P500?). The rush for the exits will be huge when people realise the unreliability of digital assets for bartering in the absence of a banking system. You'll be needing physical assets in the dystopian future you seem convinced is coming, not digital.
    Another factor you should consider is the breakdown of law and order. I'd guess this is likely to break down before the financial system and poses risks to you in several ways. Those gold and silver bars locked away in the vaults of a bust company. What's to stop them disappearing? Same risk to you personally if you are not careful to conceal what you personally possess.
    These are not worries I would want to have, and fortunately I don't, because I live here in the real world.
  • Type_45Type_45 Forumite
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    masonic said:
    Type_45 said:
    masonic said:
    Type_45 said:
    masonic said:
    Type_45 said:
    If and when such a thing happens in the UK there would be a run on the banks.

    And you think there's enough FSCS money to protect everyone?
    Why speculate about what would happen when the FSCS has already been in a situation during 2008 where it had to pay out £20.9bn in compensation, £20bn of that freshly printed by the Treasury and lent to the FSCS. It took the FSCS 12 years to repay the loan through recoveries from the failing banks and increased levies on financial institutions. The Treasury can create an unlimited supply of money to back the FSCS and would do so. Anyone under the compensation limit will not lose a nominal penny. The consequences of creating the money will be spread between all those who hold GBP and sterling denominated bonds.
    I suppose one of the benefits of driving half the population into poverty this winter is that there will be less demand on the FSCS from savers when your 80% crash happens and the financial system comes crashing down ;)
    Because I don't believe the governments (UK & US) can print their way out of what's coming.  I think they've shot their bolt.  This crash will be bigger (IMO) than GFC and Covid.  There will be no choice but to feel the pain, take the medicine, and spend many years playing catch up.

    Our leaders and banksters making catastrophic policy errors, only to be bailed out and carry on as they were in a broken financial system, cannot carry on much longer.

    When it all comes crashing down all bets are off.  And even if your money is FSCS protected, what would its spending power be like on the other side of this crash?  It could be greatly devalued.  And would be devalued even under your flawless plan of just printing another £trillion to fix the latest crisis.  
    It's not my plan. I don't get to decide anything. It's highly unlikely any bank will come under pressure and require FSCS intervention. I can understand that some people have no living memory of high inflation or recession, and perhaps their worried mind would get the better of them. If I bought into your vision of economic collapse in the slightest I wouldn't be deluded enough to think I can escape the consequences by buying some cryptocurrency and shiny metals. Things are going to get pretty grim in the real world, holding some cash within reason for short term use is a sensible course of action. It is never a good idea to use cash as a long-term investment.

    The currencies are being devalued and crushed.  So I agree they are not a long term investment.  Short term they are best out of the system and/or tied to the value of a commodity which will hold its value and appreciate against a falling GBP.

    When the SHTF everything will fall in price as people will scramble for liquidity.  That includes crypto and metals.  But at least with crypto and metals your money is out of the system.

    Shares in gold/silver ETCs won't be out of the system and are therefore at risk.  But, provided you can still control and access them, their value against GBP/USD should go up as the currencies fall.  At least that is my hope for the portion of my portfolio invested in those ETC entities.

    If you buy a financial instrument and the financial system collapses, then at best you are left with an asset you could provably stake a claim to, but in no way can practically access. Walk me through the process of how you realise the value in some electronic shares held by HSD nominees (in administration)? It's sometimes hard enough to get your assets out of a bust broker when the financial system is in full working order. As for crypto, it's already been demonstrated that it is correlated with other risk assets, so expect equity-like falls (it's one risk asset that's experienced an 80% crash. Will it continue to crash 80% for each 20% leg down of the S&P500?). The rush for the exits will be huge when people realise the unreliability of digital assets for bartering in the absence of a banking system. You'll be needing physical assets in the dystopian future you seem convinced is coming, not digital.
    Another factor you should consider is the breakdown of law and order. I'd guess this is likely to break down before the financial system and poses risks to you in several ways. Those gold and silver bars locked away in the vaults of a bust company. What's to stop them disappearing? Same risk to you personally if you are not careful to conceal what you personally possess.
    These are not worries I would want to have, and fortunately I don't, because I live here in the real world.


    I hope you aren't including the stock market as being in the "real world".  The real world economy is imploding.  The stock market is a surreal video game bearing no relation to reality.

    The bears use facts and evidence for their views.  The bulls have nothing but fairy dust and tropes of the past ("the market will always go up" et al).


  • masonicmasonic Forumite
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    Just to add, I wondered who in particular might be responsible for introducing fairy dust and tropes of the past, and I couldn't not share:

  • Type_45Type_45 Forumite
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    masonic said:
    Just to add, I wondered who in particular might be responsible for introducing fairy dust and tropes of the past, and I couldn't not share:


    This simply serves to illustrate how much I know.  I've been where most of the posters here are.  I've been that guy who's invested in the stock market and needs to convince myself that it will always be what it has been for the past 40 years.  I've posted those things as you shared and repeatedly refreshed the page as I sought collusion, validation, reassurance. I know every bump on the path of the bull.  I hope it works out well for you.  But if it doesn't, I will buy your bags.  At an 80% discount.
  • PrismPrism Forumite
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    Type_45 said:
    masonic said:
    Just to add, I wondered who in particular might be responsible for introducing fairy dust and tropes of the past, and I couldn't not share:


    This simply serves to illustrate how much I know.  I've been where most of the posters here are.  I've been that guy who's invested in the stock market and needs to convince myself that it will always be what it has been for the past 40 years.  I've posted those things as you shared and repeatedly refreshed the page as I sought collusion, validation, reassurance. I know every bump on the path of the bull.  I hope it works out well for you.  But if it doesn't, I will buy your bags.  At an 80% discount.
    You will probably find that most posters here are neither bull nor bear or in fact have no opinion on what way the markets will move over the coming years. Yet they will still remain invested as their time frames are long - mine for example is hopefully 40+ years. So the only question I need to ask myself is, do I think companies will continue to grow and be profitable over the next 40 years or not? I have no real care what happens in the meantime except for knowing that I have enough set aside or can earn more to cope with significant blips/downturns/crashes along the way - even an 80% crash. 

    The only thing that I have no real answer for is complete monetary and government collapse which would wipe out most companies. Oh, and maybe hyper inflation which I can't see happening again in a developed country like ours.
  • edited 3 September at 6:17PM
    masonicmasonic Forumite
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    edited 3 September at 6:17PM
    Type_45 said:
    masonic said:
    Just to add, I wondered who in particular might be responsible for introducing fairy dust and tropes of the past, and I couldn't not share:


    This simply serves to illustrate how much I know.  I've been where most of the posters here are.  I've been that guy who's invested in the stock market and needs to convince myself that it will always be what it has been for the past 40 years.  I've posted those things as you shared and repeatedly refreshed the page as I sought collusion, validation, reassurance. I know every bump on the path of the bull.  I hope it works out well for you.  But if it doesn't, I will buy your bags.  At an 80% discount.
    I've witnessed the Type_45 who posted reasoned comments about VLS and global index trackers, sensible bond allocations etc. went on to foretell a great crash, but counselled that we should probably just stay invested and ride it out. Then, watched on as sense and reason gradually drained away. I hope it one day returns. I hate to disappoint, but if buying opportunities present themselves in the future, I'll be there picking up bargains, not selling out.
  • Type_45Type_45 Forumite
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    Prism said:
    Type_45 said:
    masonic said:
    Just to add, I wondered who in particular might be responsible for introducing fairy dust and tropes of the past, and I couldn't not share:


    This simply serves to illustrate how much I know.  I've been where most of the posters here are.  I've been that guy who's invested in the stock market and needs to convince myself that it will always be what it has been for the past 40 years.  I've posted those things as you shared and repeatedly refreshed the page as I sought collusion, validation, reassurance. I know every bump on the path of the bull.  I hope it works out well for you.  But if it doesn't, I will buy your bags.  At an 80% discount.
    You will probably find that most posters here are neither bull nor bear or in fact have no opinion on what way the markets will move over the coming years. Yet they will still remain invested as their time frames are long - mine for example is hopefully 40+ years. So the only question I need to ask myself is, do I think companies will continue to grow and be profitable over the next 40 years or not? I have no real care what happens in the meantime except for knowing that I have enough set aside or can earn more to cope with significant blips/downturns/crashes along the way - even an 80% crash. 

    The only thing that I have no real answer for is complete monetary and government collapse which would wipe out most companies. Oh, and maybe hyper inflation which I can't see happening again in a developed country like ours.

    Government collapse?  Where has this come from?

    I wish it were true but I don't expect it nor do I recall saying it.
  • Type_45Type_45 Forumite
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    masonic said:
    Type_45 said:
    masonic said:
    Just to add, I wondered who in particular might be responsible for introducing fairy dust and tropes of the past, and I couldn't not share:


    This simply serves to illustrate how much I know.  I've been where most of the posters here are.  I've been that guy who's invested in the stock market and needs to convince myself that it will always be what it has been for the past 40 years.  I've posted those things as you shared and repeatedly refreshed the page as I sought collusion, validation, reassurance. I know every bump on the path of the bull.  I hope it works out well for you.  But if it doesn't, I will buy your bags.  At an 80% discount.
    I've witnessed the Type_45 who posted reasoned comments about VLS and global index trackers, sensible bond allocations etc. went on to foretell a great crash, but counselled that we should probably just stay invested and ride it out. Then, watched on as sense and reason gradually drained away. I hope it one day returns. I hate to disappoint, but if buying opportunities present themselves in the future, I'll be there picking up bargains, not selling out.


    Global index trackers, as great as the concept (and reality) is/was are part of the problem.  They have inflated certain companies way beyond where they should be.
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