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'House prices – lies, damn lies and seasonal adjustments' blog discussion

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'House prices – lies, damn lies and seasonal adjustments' blog discussion

11 replies 3.4K views
This is the discussion to link on the back of Martin's blog. Please read the blog first, as this discussion follows it.



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Replies

  • I have followed Ray Boulger for a number of years and have always found him to be extremely knowledgeable; I would like to say that I am surprised by his findings on how the mortgage companies measure the market....but I'm really not....
  • ErrataErrata Forumite
    38.2K posts
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    I have no idea why prices need to be seasonally adjusted. A house price is what it is, no matter whether it's January or July. So what's the point of it?
    .................:)....I'm smiling because I have no idea what's going on ...:)
  • ain't it always the way!:j
  • crockscrocks Forumite
    26 posts
    Ive always been dubious of House price indexes published by the major mortgage lenders... After all it is in their best interests to sell mortgages? so are They are always going to try and paint a rosier picture of the market to suit their needs??

    The best and most reliable one to work on would be one generated by the Land Registry, Independant and impartial based on all the available data.
  • Gorgeous_GeorgeGorgeous_George Forumite
    8K posts
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    I don't see the point of reporting the data in the first place.

    GG
    There are 10 types of people in this world. Those who understand binary and those that don't.
  • As Mervyn King once said "House prices are a matter of opinion, whereas debt is real"

    I agree with this totally. The price of a house is subject to many many factors, and ultimately a price index is really a finger in the air assesment of the state of the market

    With transactions at a historic low, the problem you have is that spurious 'outliers' (in statistical terms) skew the honed calculations based on high volume consistent sales figures in a stable housing market

    Debt on the other hand is a completely transparent figure of how much money you owe

    In any case, a house is worth what someone is prepared to pay
  • charles_b wrote: »
    As Mervyn King once said "House prices are a matter of opinion, whereas debt is real"

    I agree with this totally. The price of a house is subject to many many factors, and ultimately a price index is really a finger in the air assesment of the state of the market

    With transactions at a historic low, the problem you have is that spurious 'outliers' (in statistical terms) skew the honed calculations based on high volume consistent sales figures in a stable housing market

    Debt on the other hand is a completely transparent figure of how much money you owe

    In any case, a house is worth what someone is prepared to pay

    The bit I've made bold is the bit I query.
    I'm wondering if you mean a finger in the air to test the direction of the wind or something a bit ruder.
    Either meaning seems to make sense in the current market :D
  • Wind direction of course! Anything else would be plain rude.:rotfl:
  • miz.redmiz.red Forumite
    1 posts
    I didn't understand a word of all that! :( :eek:
    Can I please have it in very very very plain english, perhaps 2 or 3 sentences!?
  • Errata wrote: »
    I have no idea why prices need to be seasonally adjusted. A house price is what it is, no matter whether it's January or July. So what's the point of it?

    It all about banks, building societies, mortgage lenders and estate agents talking up the market.

    In the last few years it served to embroider the market and the banking trough fed the banking pigs, now it being used to do the same with dreadful figures and sellers and agents virtually putting any price they fancy on their houses as they arent selling.

    The saying of "when money speaks the truth stays silent" springs to mind.

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