Debate House Prices


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how long with the 'crash' last??

In view of the recent 'crash' or ' correction' that has been widly publicised how long do you personally think it will last before prices bottom out??

I quite fancy moving to a bigger house but I want to plan my move carefully.
MF aim 10th December 2020 :j:eek:
MFW 2012 no86 OP 0/2000 :D

how long will the 'property crash' last?? 72 votes

What crash??
6% 5 votes
0-11 months
6% 5 votes
12-23 months
15% 11 votes
24-35 months
23% 17 votes
36 months +
47% 34 votes
«13

Comments

  • tradetime
    tradetime Posts: 3,200 Forumite
    Since there are a lot of "crashes" going on, depending on your definition of a "crash" and assuming you are talking propety, the norm would be imho 3-5 years. Which puts me in the 36+ months category, what clown thinks a property "crash" could last less:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
    Hope for the best.....Plan for the worst!

    "Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can't make it worse." Unknown
  • beingjdc
    beingjdc Posts: 1,680 Forumite
    Not to bang on about the derivatives market, but it's gone from projecting a long slow crash over about four and a bit years, to predicting armageddon for the next 18 months, followed by stagnation for the foreseeable.
    Hurrah, now I have more thankings than postings, cheers everyone!
  • brit1234
    brit1234 Posts: 5,385 Forumite
    tradetime wrote: »
    Since there are a lot of "crashes" going on, depending on your definition of a "crash" and assuming you are talking propety, the norm would be imho 3-5 years. Which puts me in the 36+ months category, what clown thinks a property "crash" could last less:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

    Hi, I think I'm going to be controversial here and say just under 3 years. The reason for this is based on the huge size of the bubble and an improved media network (internet, 24 hour news, business news sites and channels, blogs, forums, mobiles etc). In the past we did not have all these sources of information so news about a downturn was slower at getting round, now it get get round incredibly quickly affecting sentiment faster than we have ever seen.

    Already we have seen surveys saying the fastest falls or biggest falls in history. Technically if the falls continue at this speed or as I believe start to increase further (3%+ fall next month) then we are going to have a very quick return to normal property prices indeed.

    Once all this bad debt is flushed out there is no reason the economy can't start to grow again. The new medias are going to have an important effect this time.
    :beer: . :j .:rotfl: . :T
    :exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.

    Save our Savers
  • dopester
    dopester Posts: 4,890 Forumite
    I voted 36 months+, but after bottoming I don't expect anything by way of HPI for 10 years.
  • skap7309
    skap7309 Posts: 874 Forumite
    Went for the higher end of up to three years, so must be a clown - tradetime.
    BUT i do not predict double digit growth at the end of this period, more like stagnation for a while and also for reasons brit1234 mentioned.
  • lostinrates
    lostinrates Posts: 55,283 Forumite
    I've been Money Tipped!
    IMHO this can not be looked at isolated from the rest of the economic market, and neither as a UK only issue. Increased globalisation increases ripple effect. (for good and bad times both)

    UK is a good strategic point for a lot of internatials to maintain business with. As a side effect this means, in the south east and london particularly there will be a maintained foreign interest in property. This can be seen in all income areas of London Chelsea at the top for example, and Southall further down. Suitable supply and demand is, IMO a continuing problem in UK.

    There is a lot of interest in politcal change globally too. America's future election is proving epic, and our political position is very uncertain: even with the same government taxation etc is changing within term, lol (eg 10p tax). IMHO stabilty is desperately lacking.

    I also agree that media being faster is relevant, there is a lot of surging of panic, then relief then panic, which never looks good in looking at market figures.

    Personally I think that when the market becomes affordable to more but not all, it will bounce higher next time. If we were already ON the ladder we would continue with our plans to move/stay whatever while mortage repayments were within our affordabilty.

    Because of all the uncertainty politcally iand in global economies I'm not sure of what I'd predict. I'll be interested to see how global harvests are this year: that will have a huge effect on costs o living an afordabilty for mortages etc.

    As things stand I think the UK market confidence would be boosted by a general ellection WHOEVER was elected there would then be at leasta four year period of relative politcal and policy stabilty.
  • tradetime
    tradetime Posts: 3,200 Forumite
    brit1234 wrote: »
    Hi, I think I'm going to be controversial here and say just under 3 years. The reason for this is based on the huge size of the bubble and an improved media network (internet, 24 hour news, business news sites and channels, blogs, forums, mobiles etc). In the past we did not have all these sources of information so news about a downturn was slower at getting round, now it get get round incredibly quickly affecting sentiment faster than we have ever seen.

    Already we have seen surveys saying the fastest falls or biggest falls in history. Technically if the falls continue at this speed or as I believe start to increase further (3%+ fall next month) then we are going to have a very quick return to normal property prices indeed.

    Once all this bad debt is flushed out there is no reason the economy can't start to grow again. The new medias are going to have an important effect this time.
    :beer: . :j .:rotfl: . :T
    You make an interesting point there, I do not recall how the last sharp correction of the late 80's early 90's was reported in the media, but it is very true, the internet has the possibility of adding an interesting dimension since people can get themselves whipped up into a lather discussing the situation on internet forums. Also tools such as property bee allow people to watch the progress of declines in areas they are interested in for themselves and don't have to rely on mainstream news to tell them when it is over. My only concern as I have posted elsewhere is that a disorderly rapid descent will have far wider reaching implications, the reason the economy may not start to grow again so quickly is that it may be broke beyond any short term repair. Remember a decline of >5% yoy and NR has already said that its plans to pay the tax payer back go out the window, so 15%+ and who knows.
    Hope for the best.....Plan for the worst!

    "Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can't make it worse." Unknown
  • tradetime
    tradetime Posts: 3,200 Forumite
    skap7309 wrote: »
    Went for the higher end of up to three years, so must be a clown - tradetime.

    Sorry skap, I shouldn't post on BB's when I've had a few beers :beer: :beer: you of course may well be quite right.
    Hope for the best.....Plan for the worst!

    "Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can't make it worse." Unknown
  • amcluesent
    amcluesent Posts: 9,425 Forumite
    Britain is basically an economic basket-case, the 'City' was the cash-cow that masked the collapse of every other income generating capability.

    The thief Brown borrowed in the good times to fund his socialist utopian charade. Now we're in hock for 30 years to dodgy PFI wheezes, our gold's been sold for a pittance, the oil's gone and 2,000,000 of our brightest have fled the country to be replaced by illegals who've come for the benefits gravy-train offered by dustbin-Britain. Madness.

    Britannia? Now she's a fat slag, swears like a trooper, all the kiddies are on benefit, owing loads on the never-never and thick as pig-****.
  • WTF?_2
    WTF?_2 Posts: 4,592 Forumite
    About 2 years of sharp nominal drops (20-30% in total) followed by around 3 years of stagnation and inflation. Total 'real terms' price drops to be up to 50% of todays values before prices start to go up again, a decade before nominal values are back to the same level.


    That's unless we get a short period of massive inflation now which could well lead to a deflationary depression and then all bets are off as to how bad it could get.
    --
    Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.
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