Debate House Prices


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New Statesman: 'Crash: The housing crisis is just beginning'

245

Comments

  • PasturesNew
    PasturesNew Posts: 70,698 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    !!!!!!? wrote: »

    ... A crash is defined as a 20 per cent fall over two years ...
    I spotted this, but it's a shame it's not substantiated by a reputable source so it can be quoted and measured against.
  • PasturesNew
    PasturesNew Posts: 70,698 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    !!!!!!? wrote: »
    Maybe there is something to be said for shoeboxes full of cash under the bed.
    Not very useful for those of us living in studios, with no bed!

    And there's been a lot of studio flats built in new builds ... oh, but the people owning those don't HAVE any cash do they? That's all right then, it's just me. I need to move. Get a bed. And shoe boxes.
  • mr.broderick
    mr.broderick Posts: 3,778 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    House round the corner been up for sale for £320,000 since march, he's accepted an offer for £325,000 yesterday :confused:
  • setmefree2
    setmefree2 Posts: 9,072 Forumite
    Mortgage-free Glee!
    ianmr65 wrote: »
    Well he actually said that 60% of the recent increases in oil prices were due to speculation. Which is not quite the same thing.!

    "Roughly 60 per cent of the recent increase in the cost of oil is down to speculation." Quote

    I suppose it depends how you define "recent" - I read it as meaning over the last year! The reason I assumed that was because it was talking about when interest started to be cut in the US. But you're probably right it probably is more "recent" than that....but how recent is anyone's guess..:rotfl:
  • setmefree2
    setmefree2 Posts: 9,072 Forumite
    Mortgage-free Glee!
    !!!!!!? wrote: »
    The worst thing is that simply holding cash in the bank isn't going to really protect you from the effects - it's highly possible that some big banks will be going to the wall in the next few years.Maybe there is something to be said for shoeboxes full of cash under the bed.

    Aren't the traditional building societies safe? I thought they had different lending criteria or am I naive?:confused:
  • gingin_2
    gingin_2 Posts: 2,992 Forumite
    !!!!!!? wrote: »
    Bear-tastic day for press articles:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/economy/2008/06/house-prices-housing-british

    The Financial Services Authority (FSA) says a million people face losing their homes over the next 18 months.

    What is the total number of homes owned in this country, or what does this equal as a percentage of owned homes that could be potentially reposessed?...Seems like a shockingly high number to me regardless.
  • *MF*
    *MF* Posts: 3,113 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    ianmr65 wrote: »
    <snip>

    The issue for me is that none of the financial journalists know enough economic throry to really paint the whole picture. And not enough economists know how to write well enough to tell the whole story. And I suspect they would be (still) be laughed out of town, if they tried.

    <snip>

    Offer you this link to Paul Krugman, an economist who knows how to write in simple terms (needs to for me)

    Recent interview with him - very worthwhile reading, and yes, largely US based, but there are still lessons in there for the UK, not least because the problems stem from a worldwide market in securities where nobody yet knows where the buck stops (shouldn't that now be where the 50cents stops?)

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/14/news/economy/krugman_subprime.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008031705

    Krugman can be very left of centre (which suits me) - but try googling for a YouTube interview Krugman is on, one he gave back in 2006, and it will show he was aware of the problems, and voiced his very real concerns well before most others.

    All fwiw ...
    If many little people, in many little places, do many little things,
    they can change the face of the world.

    - African proverb -
  • WTF?_2
    WTF?_2 Posts: 4,592 Forumite
    *MF* wrote: »
    Offer you this link to Paul Krugman, an economist who knows how to write in simple terms (needs to for me)

    Recent interview with him - very worthwhile reading, and yes, largely US based, but there are still lessons in there for the UK, not least because the problems stem from a worldwide market in securities where nobody yet knows where the buck stops (shouldn't that now be where the 50cents stops?)

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/14/news/economy/krugman_subprime.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008031705

    Krugman can be very left of centre (which suits me) - but try googling for a YouTube interview Krugman is on, one he gave back in 2006, and it will show he was aware of the problems, and voiced his very real concerns well before most others.

    All fwiw ...

    I think that this is the video you are talking about:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XhvG_fD0HA

    Krugman gives a talk at Google - ostensibly to promote his book but instead he gave a general talk about the pending economic crisis as he felt it was more important.

    It's over an hour long but well worth watching. He gives an excellent insight into the property/credit bubble and is a pretty good speaker.
    --
    Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.
  • pickles110564
    pickles110564 Posts: 2,374 Forumite
    gingin wrote: »
    What is the total number of homes owned in this country, or what does this equal as a percentage of owned homes that could be potentially reposessed?...Seems like a shockingly high number to me regardless.
    gingin what you doing now R&R has finished?
  • pickles110564
    pickles110564 Posts: 2,374 Forumite
    brit1234 wrote: »
    It is become blatantly obvious we are having a crash now. Where before you heard the so called experts talking about modest rises and then flat lining they have gone completely quiet.

    Roll on the crash so we can return to normal life and normal lending. Then lets see proper lending restrictions enforced to prevent this bubble happening again.
    Brit are you sure we are in a crash?
    Seems to me that property is selling for its true value, nothing has ever changed.
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