1995 NHS Pension - Estimating future pension

homestraight

Hi All,

Helping a relative to estimate and plan their future nhs pensions. 

They are a deferred member of the 1995 scheme where they have both officer and practitioner service. 
I've looked at FVEC, career earnings, uprating and dynamising factors....
But it looks as though (from previous figures) that a reasonable estimate of 1995 pension would be to take the current year's figure and increase it by the following years factor (cpi+1.5%).
Then do this recurring each year based on an estimate of cpi.

This is a very simple way to get a rough estimate. Do we think that should give reasonable ballpark figures or am I missing something? 

To calculate the actual figure (based on cpi estimates) seems quite complex and I haven't been able to get the calculations to work accurately using the retrospective figures and known increases for previous years. Especially given my relatives particular circumstances. 

Thanks in advance
Hs

Dazed_and_C0nfused

If they are deferred would they get CPI + 1.5% or just CPI?

homestraight

They are a deferred member of the 1995 scheme in that they're still working and in the 2015 scheme. 
So it's cpi+1.5%.

I think deferred is the correct term for them in relation to 1995. Apologies if not. 

xylophone

https://www.nhsbsa.nhs.uk/member-hub/getting-estimate-your-pension

https://faq.nhsbsa.nhs.uk/knowledgebase/article/KA-04622/en-us

homestraight

xylophone said:

https://www.nhsbsa.nhs.uk/member-hub/getting-estimate-your-pension

https://faq.nhsbsa.nhs.uk/knowledgebase/article/KA-04622/en-us

Thanks I had seen those. The highlight the complexity of accurate calculation in this circumstance (to me anyway!)

Anyone with any experience of it have any thoughts on my estimate method?
Thanks

justme111

write to nhsbsa and ask for an estimate

homestraight

justme111 said:

write to nhsbsa and ask for an estimate

I'm trying to plan different potential scenarios for  different retirement years/ages.
I don't think nhsba provide this? Be great if they do. 
I have access to the total rewards/mynhspension info

QrizB

homestraight said:

justme111 said:

write to nhsbsa and ask for an estimate

I'm trying to plan different potential scenarios for  different retirement years/ages.

Most people plan their retirement in present-day money, ie. ignoring inflation. This is especially relevant where the pension is CPI- or RPI- linked.

homestraight said:

.. a reasonable estimate of 1995 pension would be to take the current year's figure and increase it by the following years factor (cpi+1.5%).
Then do this recurring each year based on an estimate of cpi.
...
To calculate the actual figure (based on cpi estimates) seems quite complex

So can you work in 2023 pounds, ignore CPI and just inflate it by 1.5% annually plus any new accrual?

jeelz

I’m also in the practitioner section of the NHS pension scheme. I think you’re on the right lines with your estimate by taking the most up to date estimate and adding CPI + 1.5% but this year’s estimate won’t include this year’s increases.

Up until April 22 calculations were more complex as, depending on your age, you may still have been adding into your 1995 pension for part of the year before transitioning to the 2015 scheme. As of April 22 everyone is in the 2015 scheme so there are no further contributions to the old 95 scheme and the only increases will be CPI (determined by the previous years CPI in September) + 1.5%.   

Note that the estimates updated in August each year are based on figures from the end of March that year which is just before the annual increase is applied. So this years estimate will not take into account the 10.1% + 1.5% which would be applied a week later in April.
When we get September’s CPI figure you will be able to calculate next April’s increase. After that you will be guessing. 

Purplelady65

Have you checked that your relative doesn’t still have a final salary link to the 1995 scheme? If they are in the 2015 scheme and haven’t had a break long enough to be classed as a break in service then their 1995 pensionable pay will be calculated using the final salary calculations when they retire. 

Workerdrone

So if a 1995 section currently shows 11k, I can just compound it at say 4% a year, 2.5% inflation + 1.5% to get a rough idea of future value in 13 years?