Are we expecting BOE to become 4.25% on 23rd March?
in Mortgages & endowments
59 replies 8.7K views
Will trackers decrease further, ie a rate closer to the BOE rate, or is that it for trackers.....not much movement since January on them.....
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I think the US Fed have wanted to tighten as far as they can before something serious breaks and the SVB issues may be enough for them to hit the pause button. If I was a betting man, I'd say it'll stick at 4% at the next meeting.
Buy Land GOD is not making any more 🙏
the main issue was energy and it's obvious to everyone that Putin's plan to blackmail europe and the rest of the world backfired spectacularly. let's not forget that while we had a bit of luck this winter, we didn't even have to enforce measures to seriously reduce energy consumption. our office, for example, usually empty due to people working from home, is too hot to be in. we're heating buildings like mad for no reason.
that means that energy prices have crashed (it takes some time for them to trickle down), fuel, while still expensive, is not unaffordable and a relatively large amount of vacancies means incomes, low as they are, are stable. supply chains are getting better, covid is starting to become but a bad memory and the chip issue is slowly, but surely being sorted out.
I also see people around me adopt a different view towards spending, where essentials are the main priority, with a focus on stable housing, hence fixing mortgages or buying instead of renting, which is spiralling out of control. new cars are not as desirable anymore, since prices are stupidly high, so people are keeping their extremely lucrative deals from the last 2-3 deals, reducing motoring costs significantly.
besides, if a recession does happen, rates will be forced down to what they were over the last 10 years and that means another wave of extremely cheap money on the market.
I can see a possible 0.25% rise in the base rate, but that may not even happen now depending on how the next couple of months go, and it may be for a short time only. There isn't really any reason for mortgage lenders to increase rates any more, I think we have pretty much hit the peak, and they will either drop slightly over the year, or stay static