Sterling crash and savings in GBP

Meka3256

I have £20k currently in a UK savings account.  It's an easy access account and not particularly earning any interest, but also there are no penalties associated with me moving the money out.

I live in the Eurozone and had planned to use the money in early 2023 to pay for a house renovation.  

The money in the UK account is from my previously earned UK savings (I'm British originally), and I had not yet moved it over to my Euro account.  Basically there was no particular reason (dodgy or otherwise) that meant I left it there.  Just with moving etc. it was one of the activities still on my to do list.

I took my eyes off the ball with the UK economy and exchange rate, and now I am questioning if I should cut my exchange losses and move it now, or wait and see what happens.

I know it's all a matter of educated predictions, but thoughts would be welcomed.

wmb194

Meka3256 said:

I have £20k currently in a UK savings account.  It's an easy access account and not particularly earning any interest, but also there are no penalties associated with me moving the money out.

I live in the Eurozone and has planned to use the money in early 2023 to pay for a house renovation.  

The money in the UK account is from my previously earned UK savings (I'm British originally), and I had not yet moved it over to my Euro account.  Basically there was no particular reason (dodgy or otherwise) that meant I left it there.  Just with moving etc. it was one of the activities still on my to do list.

I took my eyes off the ball with the UK economy and exchange rate, and now I am questioning if I should cut my exchange losses and move it now, or wait and see what happens.

I know it's all a matter of educated predictions, but thoughts would be welcomed.

I'd just get on and move it. It does look oversold but can you think of any near term catalysts for a bounce? We might only be talking a few hundred euros on that amount if does anyway.

biscan25

*Crystal ball warning*

The view is holding sterling warrants a risk premium, i.e. it has been oversold because it is seen as continually risky, so a reversion upward is more likely than a further downward drop.

The other side of the equation. The US dollar is now somewhat as a safe haven, making massive gains over the £ and also the €.

So if i had to guess, by the end of next month.

£ is up modestly against the €
€ up modestly against the $
£ up strongly against the $

This isn't anything I'd bet on though.

Albermarle

Although the Pound has lost ground against the Euro in recent days, it is still higher than it has been in some other short periods over the last three years. It could be argued that it is within a normal range( normal since Brexit anyway )  but near the bottom of it. Whereas the change in the Pound/ Dollar rate is clearly more significant.

mark_cycling00

From reading the updates from various banks + investment companies over the last few weeks. My summary is:

(don't take my advise in any way shape or form of course)

1. It's not a particularly good, stable government. Much of the talent in the party is now unavailable to Truss and she's filled the cabinet with dependable loyalists rather than uniting the party and picking the best talent
2. Truss understands the risks of Brexit and recession and the need to be a a low-tax, low-regulation place to do business and attract talent from overseas etc. this has positives about it
3. Truss's team are behaving like inexperienced amateurs, they released a "budget" with insufficient data which worried the markets. The need to be "new and different" and promise never-ending tax-cuts was pretty stupid
4. the above point can be fixed. They need to re-establish a reputation again.
5. They might do this, they haven't gone all trumpian and blamed their critics
6. Most of the global financial press is laughing and so this makes 5 harder to do

So, the pound is undervalued, but whether it actually rises depends on sentiment and gaining a reputation when people are enjoying laughing at you

[Deleted User]

I'm selling a property in the UK and will be moving over 300,000 to € immediately. I don't try and time the market. I'd probably feel worse if I wait and the rate decreased than if I moved the money and it increased.