Do we trust the government to maintain the Energy Price Guarantee?

[Deleted User]

ariarnia said:

deano2099 said:

I do wonder if we get a cold winter and supply issues do end up leading to some blackouts, whether the political will will remain to keep this going, at least at the current rates.

this is a conversation we have had recently with the mil. she is convinced we're going to go back to the three day week and she could just wake up one morning with no electric. i can't see that's even a remote possibility. i think there's maybe a 10% chance (numbers picked from the air. low but not inconcevable) that there will be energy shortages and blackouts. but i think they will be planned in advance and i dont think they'll extend to domestic customers. businesses use the vast majority of electricity in the uk and worst case scenario they can be compensated by the government for any losses. i think the government would have really had to have lost it for us to see unplanned outages (where entire parts of the system just fail) unless it's related to a huge storm or flooding or for rolling blackouts to extend to normal people. 

Unplanned?  Not going to happen without an outside influence like storm/flooding etc as you say.

Planned?  More plausible, and the plans are already available.

There are a few notifications that you can look out for to see when this can happen.  The first would be a Capacity Margin Notice (CMN) which is an automatic notice that means that there aren't enough generators listed to be available in a particular period, followed by a Electricity Margin Notice (EMN) which is manually triggered by an operator in the National Grid control room and means that the 'spare' capacity planned to be present is not there (maybe a generator has broken, maybe there isn't as much wind as thought, etc..)

Then there are the very important two - High Risk of Demand Control (HRDR) and Demand Control Imminent (DCI).  These are the ones that are saying "we will be reducing the available supply to customers".  Doesn't mean power cut in the first instance, because there are other things that can be done, but you won't have a planned blackout without these warnings having been issued.

We've actually had some CMNs over the summer - the last was on 11 August. 

deano2099

Yeah certainly nothing unplanned or a severe as a three day week, but a couple of weeks of disruption with planned rolling blackouts of a few hours during the coldest parts of winter doesn't seem impossible. Especially if it's a particularly cold winter.

Had the price guarantee not happened I would have been comfortable that the reduction in demand would have been enough on its own, but now I don't think we're going to see that - indeed with people misunderstanding what the £2500 "cap" is it may be even worse.

I don't actually see them as even being *that* disruptive anymore (oh I just have to watch Netflix on my phone for two hours?) but it'll reflect badly enough on the government, and the general approach of the Conservatives is to address required behaviour change in the population through economic incentives and we may see a "this is what you get when you meddle with the perfectly fine free market" argument from the hawks.

wittynamegoeshere

Anyone who lives in the countryside just expects it anyway.  We usually have a water or power cutoff once a year.  Both have been for lots of hours recently.  We're not in the middle of nowhere, it's just decaying infrastructure that doesn't seem very well maintained.

Spoonie_Turtle

wittynamegoeshere said:

Anyone who lives in the countryside just expects it anyway.  We usually have a water or power cutoff once a year.  Both have been for lots of hours recently.  We're not in the middle of nowhere, it's just decaying infrastructure that doesn't seem very well maintained.

Good point (although, just the once?!).  Years ago it used to be that we'd only really have power cuts if it was storm damage, now we get random power cuts because they've found a fault and had to turn it off so the engineers can repair it.  We've only had a couple so far this year, in fairness.

Chrysalis

Anyone following the financial news will know we are heading for big trouble and the government is facing having to make some U turns on the budget.  I believe Martin revealed the contracts made with the suppliers were only for three months.

Sunak's predictions coming true, and he was against a broad help been supplied across the board and instead targeted help.  I do think there is a chance of an EPG review come November.

[Deleted User]

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6389938/do-we-trust-the-government-to-maintain-the-energy-price-guarantee

Chrysalis

Just noticed this thread, I will ask the mods to merge mine in.

Sunak's predictions are coming true, and he was against a broad help been supplied across the board and instead targeted help.

I think there is a risk the EPG might be reviewed as the financial news has been absolutely grim the last few days, and the government is now faced with having to make its numbers add up in November, which very likely they wont be able to do without U turns.

If I remember right Martin revealed the government only did 3 month contracts with the suppliers, which meant this always remained a possibility.

Chrysalis

I know, I just replied there, hadnt noticed, have already asked the mods to merge the threads.

What_time_is_it

I think you will be correct.

The_Green_Hornet

Chrysalis said:

Just noticed this thread, I will ask the mods to merge mine in.

Sunak's predictions are coming true, and he was against a broad help been supplied across the board and instead targeted help.

I think there is a risk the EPG might be reviewed as the financial news has been absolutely grim the last few days, and the government is now faced with having to make its numbers add up in November, which very likely they wont be able to do without U turns.

If I remember right Martin revealed the government only did 3 month contracts with the suppliers, which meant this always remained a possibility.

Minister rejects U-turn on tax-cutting mini-Budget.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63067163