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Poland in January

I have a BA Package booked to Warsaw for a few days in early January.
So far I have only paid a deposit and the balance is due on the 18th December.
BA have had to cancel some of the flights and substitute alternatives - it's from EDI via LHR so I can now cancel the whole thing and get my deposit back in cash rather than an FTV.
Do contributors feel Poland will be open for business by January with no restrictions in or out from the UK ?
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Comments

  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
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    edited 2 December 2020 pm31 9:47PM
    A question for
    CKhalvashi 
    I would suggest. 
  • Butts
    Butts Posts: 1,291 Forumite
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    A question for
    CKhalvashi 
    I would suggest. 
    Is he the "Mystic Meg" ?
    Certainly hope he can furnish an educated assessment of the likelihood of my trip being viable or not. 
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Butts said:
    A question for
    CKhalvashi 
    I would suggest. 
    Is he the "Mystic Meg" ?
    Certainly hope he can furnish an educated assessment of the likelihood of my trip being viable or not. 
    More informed than the average MSE forum user I'd say.  Though difficult to see what's going to fundamentally change in the next few weeks that isn't already very apparent.  
  • bagand96
    bagand96 Posts: 6,383 Forumite
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    edited 3 December 2020 am31 6:46AM
    A very quick “finger in the air” looking at the Google Maps COVID 19 overlay, which reports new cases in the last 7 days (per 100,00 of population)

    - England 26.7 (downward trend)
    - United Kingdom 22.8 (downward trend)
    - Poland 50.2 (downward trend)

    I can’t remember the number the FCO use before adding a destination to the exempt list, around 20 I think?


  • Butts
    Butts Posts: 1,291 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    bagand96 said:
    A very quick “finger in the air” looking at the Google Maps COVID 19 overlay, which reports new cases in the last 7 days (per 100,00 of population)

    - England 26.7 (downward trend)
    - United Kingdom 22.8 (downward trend)
    - Poland 50.2 (downward trend)

    I can’t remember the number the FCO use before adding a destination to the exempt list, around 20 I think?


    Thanks for that , I've got a couple of weeks before the balance is due and can get a refund of my deposit at any point up till then so I will hold fire and await developments over the intervening period.
  • superbigal
    superbigal Posts: 611 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 500 Posts
    edited 3 December 2020 am31 11:51AM
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/


    The stats are per 100K and the threshold used to be 20.  Poland is at 298.3  !!!
    Ignore that google rubbish posted above.  UK was at 153.8   not 22
    Even Scotland performing far better than Ingurland was last reported at 104.2
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
    I therefore go for No 98%  Yes 2% 
    Your welcome.
  • bagand96
    bagand96 Posts: 6,383 Forumite
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    edited 3 December 2020 pm31 12:07PM
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/


    The stats are per 100K and the threshold used to be 20.  Poland is at 298.3  !!!
    Ignore that google rubbish posted above.  UK was at 153.8   not 22
    Even Scotland performing far better than Ingurland was last reported at 104.2
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
    I therefore go for No 98%  Yes 2% 
    Your welcome.
    Is it not the case that the Google data is showing a daily figure averaged over 7 days, whereas Statista are showing the cumulative 7 day figure? The numbers would be in the same ball park then? Can’t recall if the FCO use a daily average or 7 day average though. 
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
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    When comparaing data one needs to compare testing regimes.  As very different. If you don't test you don't know. 
  • Back in July, everything was much easier, I calmly went to Poland and no tests were required, only insurance for six months and necessarily two weeks of quarantine. By December, everything was much worse and I am glad that I was able to leave, I would not like to stay there and get a fine or deportation, I entered the country without a visa. In the case of avid and border closures, can I get a deportation without a visa?

  • CKhalvashi
    CKhalvashi Posts: 12,129 Forumite
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    Butts said:
    A question for
    CKhalvashi 
    I would suggest. 
    Is he the "Mystic Meg" ?
    Certainly hope he can furnish an educated assessment of the likelihood of my trip being viable or not. 
    I work regularly in Poland and have travelled the area extensively in the last few years (Poland, Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Romania, Moldova etc), so probably can answer better than the average person here.

    At the moment, if you only have British citizenship and don't have EU residency, the viability is going to be based on whether the EU decides to keep its borders open to the UK or not from 1 January on health protection grounds. No decision had been made on this when I last checked on Wednesday.

    Poland has diverged from this policy to a limited extent, especially in relation to passengers arriving from Ukraine and Belarus. Whether Poland will do this in relation to British nationals, if only to keep connections between Poland and the UK to protect its own nationals, will wait to be seen. A 14 day home isolation is mandatory in Poland for both Ukrainian and Belarusian passengers, with the exception of EU nationals in transit. I'd expect similar for the UK.

    The UK Deputy CMO has stated that we are unlikely to see any definitive results from the vaccine until at least March.

    I personally wouldn't book anything of this nature at this time, as I don't have a crystal ball (I tend to do budget airline + Booking, not a package though). Check whatever guarantee BA gives you carefully and any terms of this.

    At the moment, although not with BA, there are good prices to Ukraine in January (the UK is on the green list for Ukraine currently), and somewhere like Lviv won't offer any less than Warsaw in January. The same applies with cities like Belgrade in January, and again there are no current entry restrictions in Serbia. Like Poland, both will require either a test out or 14 day isolation on your return to the UK.
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