Rethinking my investment plan - Help please

Hi everyone! Ok.. So my original plan was to invest 30k into a VLS60 fund however i know the market can not be predicted and its also about time in the market and not timing the market but i am rethinking my plan now. The investment will be for a 10 year minimum. However, i was thinking of now investing 10k into a VLS100 fund and keeping 20k in high interest accounts on the possibility that there may well be a market crash around the corner and then reinvesting the rest 20k as and when it comes. Which idea sounds more logical? Thank you in advance :)


  • AnotherJoe
    AnotherJoe Posts: 19,622 Forumite
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    So, to summarise, you know the market can't be predicted, but you are predicting a crash ?:D

    Or if not, you are prepared to wait an indefinite time until there is a crash ? What would you define asa crash(amount and period) so you know when to go in ?

    Do what makes you feel good. No one knows. Statistically all in asap wins but you could get lucky.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
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    Do what ever you are comfortable with. Why is the market going to crash shortly? What event do you foresee occurring that already isn't priced in. Due to Central Bank intervention volatility has all but disappeared in recent years. Difficult to see this changing in the short term. Until all the major players commence unwinding their positions.
  • AnotherJoe
    AnotherJoe Posts: 19,622 Forumite
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    Ps all hashed over in this recent thread (and plenty of others)
  • masonic
    masonic Posts: 23,496 Forumite
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    I initially thought the question you were asking was should you take the part of VLS60 invested in bonds and instead keep it in cash. So, why not invest £18k in VLS100 and £12k in high interest accounts? Or £24k in VLS80 and £6k in high interest accounts if you want to hedge your bets?
  • economic
    economic Posts: 3,002 Forumite
    also why just VLS? why not have some in VLS100, some cash, some in a good managed fund (like fundsmith)??
  • enthusiasticsaver
    enthusiasticsaver Posts: 15,682 Ambassador
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    There may well be a market crash, who knows and if you are a nervous investor and panic and withdraw if you see the value of your investments fall then keeping some of your money back in cash is sensible.

    I think of our investments as money we don't need for foreseeable future so only invest what I would be comfortable to see fluctuate in the short to medium term.

    Just bear in mind that keeping it in cash has its own risks with inflation devaluing it and losing out on gains should your prediction be unfounded.

    No one can predict the future so I would not even try.
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  • Linton
    Linton Posts: 17,244 Forumite
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    I think you are wrong to be considering using one allocation now and to switch to another one when conditions look favourable to you. The problem is that your views may be wrong, or if they are right you react at the wrong time. For example not accepting a crash is over until prices have risen significantly or buying heavily in the middle of a double dip crash.

    The fact that you are worried about a crash suggests to me that you are investing beyond your risk tolerance. Its much better to decide an asset allocation you can live with in the long term and keep to it, rebalancing on a regular but infrequent basis to sell a few investments which are performing unusually well and buy more of those currently at a low price.
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